{
  "code": "000019",
  "name": "深粮控股",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "行业待核验",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "回避：粮食保供需求稳定不等于股东回报稳定，扣非利润持续下滑、现金流受采购结算影响，且流通市值口径不足以证明真正破净。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.4801657785671996,
    "roe": 0.04377006366255144,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.029571055010419754,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 4.38%，权益乘数 1.48倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 2.96%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.04377006366255144,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.32439999999999997,
      "net_profit_ttm": 216621700.0,
      "equity": 4949083503.05499,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.029571055010419754
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.077,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.08645934065934067,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.09722518518518519,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.09002307692307694,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.07470213776722091,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.06446379310344827,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.07634584615384614,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.04377006366255144,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.04377006366255144,
  "channels": [],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：【观点】区域仓储设施、保供职责与稳定需求构成经营基础，但不能据此认定拥有消费品牌式定价权；税费和仓储成本已实质侵蚀股东收益，不能简单归因于短期粮价周期。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/000019.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "000019",
    "name": "深粮控股（深圳市深粮控股股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "段永平·商业模式",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5）",
    "verdict": "回避：粮食保供需求稳定不等于股东回报稳定，扣非利润持续下滑、现金流受采购结算影响，且流通市值口径不足以证明真正破净。",
    "findings": [
      "核心问题一：到底是不是有定价权的好生意？【事实】主业为粮油贸易、加工、仓储物流，以及茶及植物提取物等食品加工。2025年归母净利润2.43亿元，同比下降25.24%；扣非净利润1.48亿元，同比下降51.77%；加权ROE为4.91%。公司解释利润下降涉及专项财政资金的所得税处理，以及曙光粮库搬迁、深汕粮库投运增加仓储成本。【观点】区域仓储设施、保供职责与稳定需求构成经营基础，但不能据此认定拥有消费品牌式定价权；税费和仓储成本已实质侵蚀股东收益，不能简单归因于短期粮价周期。来源：2025年报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000019&id=12228043 ，巨潮原文 https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-28/1225213320.PDF 。上述属于同一公司披露，单源未交叉。",
      "核心问题二：高现金转化是否可持续？【事实】2025年经营现金流净额11.00亿元，公司明确说明部分采购改用国内信用证结算、采购现金支付减少；2026年上半年经营现金流转为-5288.16万元，归母净利润1.12亿元、同比下降36.45%，扣非净利润8581.46万元、同比下降45.69%。2025年末存货占总资产53.83%。【观点】2025年现金流强是正面证据，但被随后现金流转负及结算方式变化削弱；不能将任务面板cf/np=3.614解释为稳定自由现金流，更不能把粮食库存和仓储资产按账面值视作随时可分配的现金。来源：上述2025年报；2026年半年报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000019&id=12528734 。现金流与存货数字单源未交叉；半年报利润数据另见 https://www.sohu.com/a/1067604751_115377 ，该文仍主要转述公司公告。",
      "核心问题三：便宜是否掩盖退市或治理风险？【事实】2025年度获致同标准无保留审计意见，年报“披露后面临退市情况”为不适用；2026年半年报披露报告期不存在处罚及整改情况，控股股东深农投持股63.79%，所持股份质押、标记或冻结数量为0。但子公司杭州福海堂已进入破产清算，2026年中净资产-413.42万元；公司称不影响现有业务。另有持股0.75%的东莞市果菜副食交易市场有限公司质押869.82万股，不能混同控股股东爆仓。【观点】当前已核材料不支持把上市公司认定为退市风险股；反面是子公司经营失败说明国资背景并不消除资本损耗。更重要的是大量股份受限、且公司有A/B股，流通市值除以全公司净资产会造成假低PB，任务给定0.514不能直接当全股权估值。来源：上述2025年报、2026年半年报；审计、质押及破产事项均为公司披露，单源未交叉。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "检索并核读至2026年半年报；未完成截至2026-09-28交易所及证监会处罚、立案公告的完整逐项核验，因此“报告期未披露”不等于历史或期后绝无风险。尚缺储备业务分部利润、政策补偿条款、受限库存和信用证到期现金支出的细化分析。任务PB、E/P的定价日及全股权分母未核清，不接受流通市值与全公司利润/权益混算；10年ROE中位数不是10年平均值。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/000019.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "findings[0]",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "利润成色",
    "估值口径",
    "现金转换"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "回避：粮食保供需求稳定不等于股东回报稳定，扣非利润持续下滑、现金流受采购结算影响，且流通市值口径不足以证明真正破净。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "回避：粮食保供需求稳定不等于股东回报稳定，扣非利润持续下滑、现金流受采购结算影响，且流通市值口径不足以证明真正破净。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}