{
  "code": "000568",
  "name": "泸州老窖",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "白酒",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "回避追逐历史高ROE和高股息：品牌尚在，但2026H1扣非与现金流深降已验证渠道周期风险，先等动销、盈利和分红覆盖重建。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": 0.4220553490502368,
    "turnover": 0.38655584482676425,
    "leverage": 1.3668042622140144,
    "roe": 0.22299132985468337,
    "basis": "FY2025合并简单平均权益杜邦；非加权归母ROE",
    "conclusion": "FY2025同口径合并杜邦：净利率42.21%×资产周转0.387次×平均总权益乘数1.367倍＝合并简单平均权益ROE22.30%；归母简单平均ROE22.29%，报表加权ROE22.66%。2026H1期末合并乘数1.402倍。品牌高净利率是真实基础，但历史ROE明显受白酒景气支撑，不是杠杆问题；最新收入/现金流急降使过去八年门槛失去前瞻保证。"
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.2670880378657487,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.2808186126669539,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.33005201465201467,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.36263360985419807,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.38328447660395565,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.3755344103880417,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.29615343279150896,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.20808453513064354,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.20808453513064354,
  "channels": [
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "【死法】价盘倒挂→经销商去库存减少打款→终端让利与费用增加→利润/合同负债继续下降→高分红侵蚀现金缓冲；品牌虽不消失，股东收益也可长期缩水。；【最坏情况】2025Q4归母仅0.68亿元，季度费用和政策影响待拆分，不能简单年化但不能忽略；白酒存货含基酒与成品，账面价值不是可快速变现价值。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": 52.99,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": "深研条件价；全部人工验证仍须满足",
    "condition": "先完成基本面修复才从2★回到候补；正常化PE≤12倍且股息由持续现金覆盖，价格跌到门槛也不自动买入。",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 72.28,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 14.17,
    "dy": 0.0799,
    "market_cap": 106389000000.00002,
    "source": "腾讯行情；见原始深研来源",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "先完成基本面修复才从2★回到候补；正常化PE≤12倍且股息由持续现金覆盖，价格跌到门槛也不自动买入。",
    "verify": "独立样本证明国窖真实成交价与库存稳定；至少两个可比报告期扣非及回款停止恶化；可持续分红须被剔资本开支后的现金覆盖，不靠压渠道或消耗原有现金。",
    "anchor": "研究者正常化归母盈利情景65—85亿元（不是预测/已认证事实）；正常化PE≤12倍按区间下沿给统一估值总额上限780亿元，依本次报价股本代理对应≤52.99元/股。当前正常化情景PE约12.52—16.37倍；当前股息率行情代理7.99%，并未通过已付与可持续性核验。股本变化须重算，A/H公司只是A股每股支付价格门槛。",
    "source": [
      "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12261746",
      "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12532636",
      "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz000568"
    ]
  },
  "research_file": "research/000568.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "000568",
    "name": "泸州老窖",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5）",
    "verdict": "回避追逐历史高ROE和高股息：品牌尚在，但2026H1扣非与现金流深降已验证渠道周期风险，先等动销、盈利和分红覆盖重建。",
    "roe_quality_note": "FY2025同口径合并杜邦：净利率42.21%×资产周转0.387次×平均总权益乘数1.367倍＝合并简单平均权益ROE22.30%；归母简单平均ROE22.29%，报表加权ROE22.66%。2026H1期末合并乘数1.402倍。品牌高净利率是真实基础，但历史ROE明显受白酒景气支撑，不是杠杆问题；最新收入/现金流急降使过去八年门槛失去前瞻保证。",
    "as_of": "2026-10-02",
    "research_type": "ROE质量通道四大师深研第1批",
    "status": "回避；核验后方可重新候补",
    "rating_is_research_opinion": true,
    "watchlist_changed": false,
    "buffett": {
      "analysis": [
        "【事实】国窖1573与泸州老窖系列，2025收入257.31亿元、同比-17.52%；前五客户占74.71%，反映渠道集中而非终端消费者集中。",
        "【观点】老窖池、酿造工艺、品牌及高端认知支持十年存续；在高端浓香有竞争力，但与强品牌同价带竞争，不能像绝对稀缺品一样无条件涨价。",
        "【反证】2026H1收入-36.35%、扣非-43.90%；公司自己披露渠道库存压力、动销下降和存量竞争。此时宣传价和账面毛利率不能证明终端提价权。"
      ],
      "sources": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12261746",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12532636"
      ],
      "source_status": "发行人披露经新浪镜像；单源，未经独立经营资料交叉验证",
      "facts_vs_opinions": "条目标明事实/观点/假设/风险情景；管理层自述不等于独立验证"
    },
    "munger": {
      "analysis": [
        "【事实】2025中期每股1.358元于2026年1月30日实施；年度方案每股4.417元、后因注销限制股调整至4.4171215元。年度股息高并不承诺未来稳定。",
        "【现金纪律】2025CFO71.23亿元、购建19.33亿元，现金差51.90亿元；归属2025分红合计约85亿元高于该差。2026H1CFO再降65.68%，需要动用现金储备维持回报，不能单看派息率。",
        "【观点】明确分红规划和主业集中加分；但生产扩建与需求调整错配、金融资产收益/存款利息依然要排查。限制股注销不是公开回购注销；未独立审计历届投资、历史资金风控事件及资本回报。"
      ],
      "sources": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12261746",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12532636"
      ],
      "source_status": "发行人披露经新浪镜像；单源，未经独立经营资料交叉验证",
      "facts_vs_opinions": "条目标明事实/观点/假设/风险情景；管理层自述不等于独立验证"
    },
    "fisher_lynch": {
      "analysis": [
        "【事实】2026H1扣非42.91亿元，扣非TTM约74.01亿元，远低于2025全年107.60亿元。直接用2025静态PE或历史9元左右EPS会低估真实估值。",
        "【正常化假设】以65—85亿元而非巅峰利润估值，仅为压力区间；去库存后若利润持续低于下沿，应下调区间而不是声称回归均值。没有独立渠道资料前不认证底部。"
      ],
      "sources": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12261746",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12532636"
      ],
      "source_status": "发行人披露经新浪镜像；单源，未经独立经营资料交叉验证",
      "facts_vs_opinions": "条目标明事实/观点/假设/风险情景；管理层自述不等于独立验证"
    },
    "graham": {
      "analysis": [
        "【死法】价盘倒挂→经销商去库存减少打款→终端让利与费用增加→利润/合同负债继续下降→高分红侵蚀现金缓冲；品牌虽不消失，股东收益也可长期缩水。",
        "【最坏情况】2025Q4归母仅0.68亿元，季度费用和政策影响待拆分，不能简单年化但不能忽略；白酒存货含基酒与成品，账面价值不是可快速变现价值。"
      ],
      "sources": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12261746",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12532636"
      ],
      "source_status": "发行人披露经新浪镜像；单源，未经独立经营资料交叉验证",
      "facts_vs_opinions": "条目标明事实/观点/假设/风险情景；管理层自述不等于独立验证"
    },
    "roe_quality": {
      "assessment": "品牌高净利率是真实基础，但历史ROE明显受白酒景气支撑，不是杠杆问题；最新收入/现金流急降使过去八年门槛失去前瞻保证。",
      "fy2025": {
        "revenue": 25731010647.32,
        "parent_np": 10830713936.14,
        "adjusted_np": 10760038787.76,
        "cfo": 7123218677.88,
        "parent_equity": 49780293635.74,
        "parent_equity_start": 47388500553.46,
        "assets_end": 64794994851.27,
        "assets_start": 68334595564.58,
        "consolidated_np": 10859910680.17,
        "liabilities_end": 14900912470.81,
        "liabilities_start": 20826588928.87,
        "dupont": {
          "net_margin_pct": 42.205534905023676,
          "asset_turnover": 0.38655584482676425,
          "equity_multiplier": 1.3668042622140144,
          "consolidated_roe_pct": 22.299132985468336,
          "parent_roe_simple_pct": 22.292576596250072,
          "parent_bridge_multiplier": 1.3700858544835883,
          "end_consolidated_multiplier": 1.2986508972584219,
          "end_parent_bridge_multiplier": 1.3016193782503147,
          "adjusted_parent_roe_simple_pct": 22.147107777850646,
          "cfo_parent_np": 0.6576869004093253,
          "reported_weighted_parent_roe_pct": 22.66
        },
        "capex_cash": 1932762969.97,
        "cfo_minus_capex_yi": 51.9045570791,
        "source": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12261746"
      },
      "h1_2026": {
        "revenue": 10472224575.78,
        "parent_np": 4339264086.33,
        "adjusted_np": 4291450847.49,
        "cfo": 2081610957.97,
        "parent_equity": 45732857079.3,
        "assets_end": 64325250251.07,
        "consolidated_np": 4376950333.58,
        "liabilities_end": 18442336591.97,
        "dupont": {
          "halfyear_net_margin_pct": 41.795802810636275,
          "halfyear_turnover_not_annualized": 0.1622088707697197,
          "average_multiplier": 1.348134212196505,
          "halfyear_consolidated_roe_not_annualized_pct": 9.139878080477972,
          "end_consolidated_multiplier": 1.4019434495592962,
          "end_parent_bridge_multiplier": 1.4065434429240031
        },
        "source": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12532636"
      },
      "method": "合并净利率=合并税后净利润/营业收入；周转率=营业收入/期初期末平均总资产；杠杆=平均总资产/平均合并总权益。乘积是合并简单平均ROE，不冒充报表归母加权ROE。另列归母净利润/平均归母权益、扣非归母净利润/平均归母权益；归母桥接乘数含少数权益效果，不是纯债务杠杆。半年周转率和ROE为半年度、未年化。",
      "reported_roe_difference": "分红、增资/注销的时点加权及少数权益导致简单均值与报表加权ROE不同，不能强行调数配平。",
      "cashflow_caution": "CFO/归母利润是合并现金流对归母利润的粗比，不是同口径收益率；CFO减全部购建长期资产是现金差，非已认证所有者收益，未扣并购/客户结算和维持性资本开支净化。",
      "leverage_exceeds_3_latest": false,
      "source_status": "单一发行人年报/半年报披露，半年报未经审计；工具计算"
    },
    "valuation": {
      "quote": {
        "price": "72.28",
        "timestamp": "20260930161451",
        "pe_ttm": "14.17",
        "market_cap_yi": "1063.89",
        "div_yield_quote": "7.99"
      },
      "market_cap_basis": "腾讯总市值，非流通市值；每股估值采用当期报价股本基准",
      "fy2025_static_pe": 9.82,
      "adjusted_ttm_profit_yi": 74.0149,
      "adjusted_ttm_pe": 14.37,
      "normalized_profit_scenario_yi": [
        65,
        85
      ],
      "normalized_pe_scenario": [
        12.52,
        16.37
      ],
      "entry_pe_ceiling": 12,
      "conditional_cap_ceiling_yi": 780,
      "conditional_price_proxy": 52.99,
      "normalization_status": "研究者保守情景，非经审计正常化盈利或预测；必须通过verify后才能激活价格门槛",
      "dividend_yield_pct": 7.99,
      "dividend_basis": "腾讯股息率字段64，单源行情代理，未逐笔重建滚动已付分红；不作为满足买入条件的证据。",
      "fiscal_dividend_reference": {
        "dps_rmb": 5.775122,
        "yield_at_quote_pct": 7.9899,
        "basis": "2025中期已实施+2025年度经股本注销调整后的批准方案；合计归属年度股息，年度支付日未逐笔独立复核，不视为未来承诺。",
        "source": [
          "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12261746",
          "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12532636"
        ]
      },
      "sources": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12261746",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12532636",
        "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz000568"
      ],
      "quote_as_of": "2026-09-30；不是2026-10-02成交价",
      "actual_ah_capitalization": "not_applicable",
      "normalization_rationale": [
        "【事实】2026H1扣非42.91亿元，扣非TTM约74.01亿元，远低于2025全年107.60亿元。直接用2025静态PE或历史9元左右EPS会低估真实估值。",
        "【正常化假设】以65—85亿元而非巅峰利润估值，仅为压力区间；去库存后若利润持续低于下沿，应下调区间而不是声称回归均值。没有独立渠道资料前不认证底部。"
      ],
      "entry_status": "未触发：价格和定性验证必须同时通过；本次无已核验可买入结论"
    },
    "risks": [
      "【死法】价盘倒挂→经销商去库存减少打款→终端让利与费用增加→利润/合同负债继续下降→高分红侵蚀现金缓冲；品牌虽不消失，股东收益也可长期缩水。",
      "【最坏情况】2025Q4归母仅0.68亿元，季度费用和政策影响待拆分，不能简单年化但不能忽略；白酒存货含基酒与成品，账面价值不是可快速变现价值。"
    ],
    "buy_conditions": {
      "buy_when": "先完成基本面修复才从2★回到候补；正常化PE≤12倍且股息由持续现金覆盖，价格跌到门槛也不自动买入。",
      "verify": "独立样本证明国窖真实成交价与库存稳定；至少两个可比报告期扣非及回款停止恶化；可持续分红须被剔资本开支后的现金覆盖，不靠压渠道或消耗原有现金。",
      "anchor": "研究者正常化归母盈利情景65—85亿元（不是预测/已认证事实）；正常化PE≤12倍按区间下沿给统一估值总额上限780亿元，依本次报价股本代理对应≤52.99元/股。当前正常化情景PE约12.52—16.37倍；当前股息率行情代理7.99%，并未通过已付与可持续性核验。股本变化须重算，A/H公司只是A股每股支付价格门槛。",
      "source": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12261746",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12532636",
        "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz000568"
      ],
      "manual": true,
      "triggered": false,
      "thresholds_are_opinions": true
    },
    "findings": [
      "巴菲特｜【事实】国窖1573与泸州老窖系列，2025收入257.31亿元、同比-17.52%；前五客户占74.71%，反映渠道集中而非终端消费者集中。 【观点】老窖池、酿造工艺、品牌及高端认知支持十年存续；在高端浓香有竞争力，但与强品牌同价带竞争，不能像绝对稀缺品一样无条件涨价。 【反证】2026H1收入-36.35%、扣非-43.90%；公司自己披露渠道库存压力、动销下降和存量竞争。此时宣传价和账面毛利率不能证明终端提价权。 来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12261746 ; https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12532636",
      "杜邦｜FY2025同口径合并杜邦：净利率42.21%×资产周转0.387次×平均总权益乘数1.367倍＝合并简单平均权益ROE22.30%；归母简单平均ROE22.29%，报表加权ROE22.66%。2026H1期末合并乘数1.402倍。品牌高净利率是真实基础，但历史ROE明显受白酒景气支撑，不是杠杆问题；最新收入/现金流急降使过去八年门槛失去前瞻保证。 来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12261746 ; https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12532636",
      "芒格｜【事实】2025中期每股1.358元于2026年1月30日实施；年度方案每股4.417元、后因注销限制股调整至4.4171215元。年度股息高并不承诺未来稳定。 【现金纪律】2025CFO71.23亿元、购建19.33亿元，现金差51.90亿元；归属2025分红合计约85亿元高于该差。2026H1CFO再降65.68%，需要动用现金储备维持回报，不能单看派息率。 【观点】明确分红规划和主业集中加分；但生产扩建与需求调整错配、金融资产收益/存款利息依然要排查。限制股注销不是公开回购注销；未独立审计历届投资、历史资金风控事件及资本回报。 来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12261746 ; https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12532636",
      "费雪/林奇｜【事实】2026H1扣非42.91亿元，扣非TTM约74.01亿元，远低于2025全年107.60亿元。直接用2025静态PE或历史9元左右EPS会低估真实估值。 【正常化假设】以65—85亿元而非巅峰利润估值，仅为压力区间；去库存后若利润持续低于下沿，应下调区间而不是声称回归均值。没有独立渠道资料前不认证底部。 正常化情景PE=[12.52, 16.37]。来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12261746 ; https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12532636 ; https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz000568",
      "烟蒂/最坏情况｜【死法】价盘倒挂→经销商去库存减少打款→终端让利与费用增加→利润/合同负债继续下降→高分红侵蚀现金缓冲；品牌虽不消失，股东收益也可长期缩水。 【最坏情况】2025Q4归母仅0.68亿元，季度费用和政策影响待拆分，不能简单年化但不能忽略；白酒存货含基酒与成品，账面价值不是可快速变现价值。 来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12261746 ; https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12532636"
    ],
    "data_gaps": [
      "渠道库存、退货返利和真实批价",
      "2025Q4骤降及2026去库存的产品/费用桥接",
      "分红可持续覆盖和扩产后正常化资本开支",
      "历史资金风控事件独立核查",
      "未完成十年资本配置逐项目审计、全部监管记录及公告穷尽检索；没有发现不是证实不存在",
      "正常化区间为研究者压力情景；缺行业完整周期利润桥接，不能宣称精确内在价值",
      "财务关键数字为发行人单源；新浪镜像不是独立第二来源，行情腾讯单源",
      "股息率行情代理未逐笔独立复算；归属年度分红与支付年度、TTM不可混用"
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "FY2025",
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12261746",
        "type": "发行人2025年度报告新浪镜像",
        "local_path": "/root/value-invest/data/roe_deep_batch1/000568_2025.txt",
        "sha256": "8f18646bef0f33193f64b97cc5f2bf06294a2b199e4d281a298072ccdf3d4746"
      },
      {
        "id": "H1_2026",
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000568&id=12532636",
        "type": "发行人2026半年报新浪镜像",
        "local_path": "/root/value-invest/data/roe_deep_batch1/000568_2026H1.txt",
        "sha256": "2461f3015eaa7c540e917d5c8aed550379a77d6b6ba5574b07ad19e353e7cdda"
      },
      {
        "id": "QUOTE",
        "url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz000568",
        "type": "腾讯行情单源",
        "quoted_timestamp": "20260930161451",
        "local_path": "/root/value-invest/data/roe_deep_batch1/quotes.txt"
      }
    ]
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch1.json",
    "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch1.json",
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": "腾讯行情；见原始深研来源",
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": 36.4031,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "渠道恶化",
    "利润成色",
    "现金转换"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "回避追逐历史高ROE和高股息：品牌尚在，但2026H1扣非与现金流深降已验证渠道周期风险，先等动销、盈利和分红覆盖重建。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "先完成基本面修复才从2★回到候补",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "正常化PE≤12倍且股息由持续现金覆盖，价格跌到门槛也不自动买入。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "事件",
      "item": "独立样本证明国窖真实成交价与库存稳定",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "至少两个可比报告期扣非及回款停止恶化",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "可持续分红须被剔资本开支后的现金覆盖，不靠压渠道或消耗原有现金。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}