{ "code": "000651", "name": "格力电器", "market": "A", "industry": "空调", "quality_tier": "bronze", "quality_conflict": false, "in_quality_pool": true, "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）", "score": 3, "verdict": "3★挂疑点：估值低不等于纯空调高回报，金融收益、多元化与主业下滑需先拆清。", "dupont": { "margin": 0.16933554773240866, "turnover": 0.4488970953366065, "leverage": 2.6069026205924213, "roe": 0.19816170976458827, "basis": "FY2025合并简单平均权益杜邦；非加权归母ROE", "conclusion": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率16.93%×资产周转0.449×权益乘数2.607=19.82%；期初/期末合并权益乘数2.601/2.613。归母两点平均权益ROE20.47%，扣非同分母19.56%；不冒充披露加权ROE。合并权益乘数约2.61、归母分母约2.68，未超过3倍但杠杆作用不可忽略。2025财务费用中利息收入58.85亿元、利息费用19.65亿元，另有营业利息收入6.71亿元；金融/资金业务显著支撑利润，扣非也不是纯空调利润。不得把税前净利息与归母税后利润直接相减，更不能把财务公司现金流当工业FCF。" }, "roe_series": [ { "year": 2019, "roe": 0.3456184101057131, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2020, "roe": 0.1802597400493987, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2021, "roe": 0.21515111612175875, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2022, "roe": 0.23198830211585156, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2023, "roe": 0.25381387358713836, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2024, "roe": 0.2786760864320916, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2025, "roe": 0.256379872611465, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2026, "roe": 0.20424587111678105, "basis": "August TTM" } ], "roe_min": 0.1802597400493987, "channels": [ "roe_quality" ], "proxy_candidate": false, "death_risk": "品牌份额与经销优势被价格战侵蚀；资本流向低回报新能源和股权投资；存款收益下降、资金受限及财务公司风险使看似高现金折价缩水", "price_lines": { "watch": null, "good": null, "fat": null, "intrinsic_value": null, "basis": null, "condition": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于220亿元，估值≤9倍（保守对应总市值≤1980亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。", "currency": "CNY", "manual_gate": true }, "current": { "price": 38.28, "date": "2026-09-30", "pe": 7.69, "dy": 0.0783, "market_cap": 214421999999.99997, "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz000651", "currency": "CNY", "source_count": 1 }, "buy_conditions": { "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于220亿元，估值≤9倍（保守对应总市值≤1980亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。", "verify": "拆工业与财务公司净债务和受限现金；低利率下正常化利息收益、格力钛持续投入和担保；连续两季空调量价与扣非止跌；核实末期分红实施及可持续DPS。", "anchor": "2026-09-30行情38.28元；扣非TTM PE 8.10倍；正常化压力情景利润220—260亿元对应PE 8.25—9.75倍。3.0元参考DPS/股价=7.84%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。", "source": [ "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000651&id=12270401", "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000651&id=12553937", "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555" ] }, "research_file": "research/000651.html", "research_document": { "code": "000651", "name": "格力电器", "score": "★★★☆☆（3★挂疑点）", "verdict": "3★挂疑点：估值低不等于纯空调高回报，金融收益、多元化与主业下滑需先拆清。", "roe_quality_note": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率16.93%×资产周转0.449×权益乘数2.607=19.82%；期初/期末合并权益乘数2.601/2.613。归母两点平均权益ROE20.47%，扣非同分母19.56%；不冒充披露加权ROE。合并权益乘数约2.61、归母分母约2.68，未超过3倍但杠杆作用不可忽略。2025财务费用中利息收入58.85亿元、利息费用19.65亿元，另有营业利息收入6.71亿元；金融/资金业务显著支撑利润，扣非也不是纯空调利润。不得把税前净利息与归母税后利润直接相减，更不能把财务公司现金流当工业FCF。", "as_of": "2026-10-02", "business_and_moat": "【事实】空调为核心并延伸工业等领域；2025收入、归母均下降9.89%，2026H1收入下降8.15%、扣非下降8.89%。【判断】空调品牌、安装服务与经销体系支持十年存续，美的、海尔等强敌及线上渠道削弱传统渠道优势；可维持一定溢价，不具无限提价权。补贴和天气不能作为永久成长。", "management_and_capital_allocation": "分红有吸引力：2025中期每股1元于2026-01-23实施，年末方案每股2元，全年归属年度方案合计3元，非某媒体混计支付年得出的数字。格力钛担保及闻泰、三安等投资真实存在，治理与多元化回报构成折价理由；历史回购需区分员工持股和注销，本轮未逐笔认证。", "growth_and_valuation": { "quote": { "price": 38.28, "timestamp": "20260930161500", "pe_ttm_vendor": "7.69", "market_cap_yi": "2144.22" }, "quote_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555", "basis": "腾讯总市值/全公司归母利润；未用流通市值或复权价。", "reported_2025_pe": 7.393070905432719, "recurring_ttm_pe": 8.101620778684389, "recurring_ttm_np_yi": 264.66555996319994, "normalized_scenario": { "parent_np_yi_range": [ 220, 260 ], "pe_range": [ 8.247, 9.746454545454544 ], "status": "研究者保守压力情景，不是已验证正常化盈利预测；扣非TTM也不是周期中枢。", "rationale": "成熟空调更适合现金回报估值，海外与工业化发展可提供增量，但最新报表尚未证明总量止跌。" }, "dividend": { "dps_cny": 3.0, "reference_yield_pct": 7.836990595611285, "basis": "2025归属年度全年方案(含中期)，末期实施仍待单独核验", "ttm_actual_paid_yield_pct": null, "limitation": "未完整核验所有分派实施公告及同股本TTM桥接，不把参考方案股息率当已实现TTM收益率；2026中期未认证支付的方案不计入。" } }, "buy_conditions": { "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于220亿元，估值≤9倍（保守对应总市值≤1980亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。", "verify": "拆工业与财务公司净债务和受限现金；低利率下正常化利息收益、格力钛持续投入和担保；连续两季空调量价与扣非止跌；核实末期分红实施及可持续DPS。", "anchor": "2026-09-30行情38.28元；扣非TTM PE 8.10倍；正常化压力情景利润220—260亿元对应PE 8.25—9.75倍。3.0元参考DPS/股价=7.84%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。", "source": [ "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000651&id=12270401", "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000651&id=12553937", "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555" ], "manual": true }, "risks_and_premortem": [ "品牌份额与经销优势被价格战侵蚀", "资本流向低回报新能源和股权投资", "存款收益下降、资金受限及财务公司风险使看似高现金折价缩水" ], "financial_facts_cny": { "fy2025": { "revenue": 170447058533.57, "parent_np": 29003103411.66, "recurring_parent_np": 27706292436.94, "cfo": 46383114754.02, "assets_end": 391371999819.49, "assets_start": 368031704522.86, "parent_equity_end": 145929297804.02, "parent_equity_start": 137416898946.39, "consolidated_np": 28862746016.16, "total_equity_end": 149791280674.7, "total_equity_start": 141513694947.97 }, "dupont": { "consolidated_net_margin_pct": 16.933554773240868, "asset_turnover": 0.4488970953366065, "equity_multiplier": 2.6069026205924213, "consolidated_roe_pct": 19.816170976458828, "parent_margin_pct": 17.01590139553377, "parent_equity_multiplier": 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"https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000651&id=12270401", "title": "2025年年度报告全文", "source_quality": "发行人公告，新浪镜像；单源", "sections": [ "主要会计数据", "管理层讨论", "利润分配", "合并资产负债表", "合并利润表", "财务附注" ], "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/000651-2025.txt" }, { "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000651&id=12553937", "title": "2026年半年度报告全文", "source_quality": "同一发行人公告，非独立双源", "sections": [ "主要会计数据", "非经常性损益", "管理层讨论", "财务附注" ], "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/000651-2026H1.txt" }, { "url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555", "title": "腾讯行情原始响应", "source_quality": "行情单源；时间2026-09-30，不能称10月2日成交", "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/quotes.txt" } ], "limitations": [ "财务数字来自实际读取年报及半年报，发行人单源；未完成独立双源核验。", "ROE拆解采用期初期末均值，与加权平均ROE不同；包含少数权益的合并与归母分开计算。", "九家均不因量化八年ROE门槛自动认证护城河；全市场面板有幸存者偏差。", "分红/回购/乱投资历史未穷尽；没有发现完整证据不等于没有风险。", "正常化区间和买入倍数是研究判断/门槛，不是事实、公允价格认证或投资建议。" ] }, "outside_watch": false, "triggers": [], "status": "watch", "provenance": { "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json", "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json", "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）", "quote": "腾讯行情；见原始深研来源" }, "research_rating": 3, "data_quality": [ "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证", "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入" ], "distance_pct": null, "quote_fresh": true, "triggered": false, "roe_discovery": true, "reject_reason_tags": [], "reject_reason": "", "reject_reason_source": "", "tracking_state": "observing", "verification_kind": "price_line", "verification_reason": "已深研；数值价格线待核，不等于深研否决", "tracking_kind": "", "tracking_checklist": [ { "type": "比率", "item": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于220亿元，估值≤9倍（保守对应总市值≤1980亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑", "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { 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