{
  "code": "000672",
  "name": "上峰材料",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "行业待核验",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "回避：按长期可预测商业模式标准暂不进入买入池，等待投资收益兑现和封装基板形成可持续经营现金流。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.6534391534391535,
    "roe": 0.06565519122257053,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.03970825965141066,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 6.57%，权益乘数 1.65倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 3.97%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.06565519122257053,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.39520000000000005,
      "net_profit_ttm": 589972000.0,
      "equity": 8985915492.957747,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.03970825965141066
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.6555614130434783,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.5461831831831832,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.3356655972359328,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.2505467586206896,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.09302065331928346,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.04469677419354839,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.0794939393939394,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.06565519122257053,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.04469677419354839,
  "channels": [
    "value"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：【事实】2026H1建材收入占比94.24%；水泥销量同比下降10.54%，披露的水泥均价214.60元/吨、同比下降40.09元/吨；水泥毛利率24.81%，同比下降5.22个百分点。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/000672.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "000672",
    "name": "上峰材料（甘肃上峰材料股份有限公司，原上峰水泥）",
    "guru": "段永平·商业模式",
    "business": "名称已核实：2026年6月5日起证券简称由上峰水泥变为上峰材料，代码000672不变。主营仍以水泥熟料、水泥、骨料和混凝土为基础，叠加股权投资及新进入的IC封装基板。来源：更名公告 https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-05/1225352620.PDF 及半年报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?id=12521069&stockid=000672 。",
    "core_questions": [
      "问题一：水泥业务有定价权，还是只有相对成本优势？【事实】2026H1建材收入占比94.24%；水泥销量同比下降10.54%，披露的水泥均价214.60元/吨、同比下降40.09元/吨；水泥毛利率24.81%，同比下降5.22个百分点。来源：新浪半年报全文，单源未交叉。【观点】矿山、沿江物流和生产效率构成相对成本优势，能帮助企业比弱竞争者活得更好；反面是销量、价格和毛利同步下降，证明公司难以独立定价。它是有成本优势的周期生意，而非需求稳定、价格可持续提升的消费型护城河。",
      "问题二：利润暴增是否代表商业模式改善？【事实】2026H1营收18.39亿元、下降19.09%；归母净利润13.64亿元、增长452.54%；扣非净利润仅1.51亿元、下降46.54%；经营现金流3.11亿元、下降34.50%。巨潮摘要 https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-24/1225492567.PDF 与新浪全文核对一致，同属公司披露源。公司解释非经常性损益12.13亿元、占归母净利润约88.93%，主要涉及盛合晶微等投资的公允价值变动，细分来源单源未交叉。【观点】投资增值是真实资产价值变化的可能来源，不能一概视为无价值；反面是未实现估值收益并非水泥客户支付的经营现金。半年经营现金流/归母净利润仅0.228，但不能据此指控造假，主要应解释为利润来源已发生变化。",
      "问题三：从水泥转向半导体是否在能力圈内？【事实】公司2026年3月通过控股平台完成美琪电路75%股权收购及增资，二季度并表收入1579.54万元、利润总额亏损454.91万元；半年报披露已开始新增投入6亿元开展技改扩产，IC封装基板收入占比仅0.86%。来源：新浪半年报全文，单源未交叉。【观点】既有半导体投资网络有助于获取项目与资源，这是转型的正面基础；反面是投资选股能力不等于工厂制造、客户认证和良率管理能力，小规模亏损业务面对大额扩产仍需验证。更名并不等于新商业模式已经成功。"
    ],
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5）",
    "conclusion": "公司已不宜用单纯水泥股的历史ROE或当期表观净利润估值，应拆成周期制造、投资资产与尚待验证的新材料业务分别评价。",
    "verdict": "回避：按长期可预测商业模式标准暂不进入买入池，等待投资收益兑现和封装基板形成可持续经营现金流。",
    "findings": [
      "最重要的身份变化：000672已更名为上峰材料，但2026H1建材收入仍占94.24%。来源：巨潮更名公告 https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-05/1225352620.PDF 、新浪半年报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?id=12521069&stockid=000672 ；收入占比单源未交叉。",
      "表观高增长掩盖主营承压：归母净利润增长452.54%，扣非净利润反而下降46.54%，非经常性损益占归母净利润约88.93%。来源：巨潮摘要 https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-24/1225492567.PDF 与新浪全文；前两项同源跨渠道核对，占比单源未交叉。",
      "新材料仍处早期验证阶段：封装基板半年收入占比0.86%，二季度利润总额亏损454.91万元，扩产新增投入规划为6亿元。来源：上述新浪半年报全文，单源未交叉；不能把规划投入误写成已全部支付资本开支。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "尚未逐项核验投资项目锁定期、退出税费、穿透归属上市公司的可变现净值；缺少封装基板客户认证、良率、订单与扩产回报数据。半年报叙述均价与分产品收入未在本轮完成口径勾稽，未据此自行推算吨盈利。用户背景TTM ROE和E/P与新披露的大额非经常性收益不是同一信息截面，不直接用于更新估值。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/000672.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "core_questions[0]",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "利润成色",
    "现金转换"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "回避：按长期可预测商业模式标准暂不进入买入池，等待投资收益兑现和封装基板形成可持续经营现金流。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "回避：按长期可预测商业模式标准暂不进入买入池，等待投资收益兑现和封装基板形成可持续经营现金流。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}