{
  "code": "000726",
  "name": "鲁泰A",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "行业待核验",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "回避：债务到期已兑付、经营现金流为正，但扣非利润明显恶化，不能用投资收益抬高的利润及流通口径低PB证明安全边际。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.3766519823788548,
    "roe": 0.05596933481481481,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.04065612480948147,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 5.60%，权益乘数 1.38倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 4.07%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.05596933481481481,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.2736,
      "net_profit_ttm": 539704300.0,
      "equity": 9642857142.857143,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.04065612480948147
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.11710640394088671,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.09325210084033615,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.013765364623476238,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.07514827586206897,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.09292033195020746,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.038322580645161294,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.06424390243902439,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.05596933481481481,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.013765364623476238,
  "channels": [
    "butt"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：2025年营收59.04亿元，同比下降3.06%；归母净利润5.94亿元，同比增长44.66%，扣非归母净利润却为3.88亿元、同比下降19.52%。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/000726.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "000726",
    "name": "鲁泰A（鲁泰纺织股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "巴菲特·财务估值",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5）",
    "verdict": "回避：债务到期已兑付、经营现金流为正，但扣非利润明显恶化，不能用投资收益抬高的利润及流通口径低PB证明安全边际。",
    "findings": [
      "核心问题一：利润属于主业，还是投资收益？【事实】主业为色织及其他面料、衬衫等纺织服装产品。2025年营收59.04亿元，同比下降3.06%；归母净利润5.94亿元，同比增长44.66%，扣非归母净利润却为3.88亿元、同比下降19.52%。2026年上半年营收26.86亿元、同比下降4.99%，归母净利润2.54亿元、同比下降29.51%，扣非净利润1.18亿元、同比下降47.88%。【观点】有盈利和客户基础是正面因素，但报表利润增长不能代表纺织主业改善；估值必须剔除非经常损益，并评估订单结构、汇兑、减值和持续盈利能力，不能机械沿用面板E/P=0.155。来源：2025年报 https://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000726&id=12102435 ；证券时报 https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3755699.html 交叉核对年度主要指标；2026年半年报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=200726&id=12571825 。半年报数字单源未交叉。",
      "核心问题二：现金和资产能否保护本金？【事实】2025年经营现金流7.12亿元，同比下降42.74%。2026年上半年经营现金流2.62亿元，购建固定资产、无形资产等支付1.36亿元，按“经营现金流减上述资本开支”的简化口径计算自由现金流约1.26亿元。半年报披露鲁泰转债于2026年4月9日兑付完毕，含税及最后一期利息兑付金额15.52亿元；期末货币资金16.23亿元、短期借款4.90亿元，固定资产占总资产43.55%。【观点】转债已兑付与正现金流降低眼前偿付压力，但现金不能全部当冗余现金，固定资产也不是现金等价物；资本开支口径未分离维持性和扩张性，简化自由现金流不能直接视为股东可分配收益。来源：上述2025年报及2026年半年报；具体现金、债务和资产数字单源未交叉，简化自由现金流为基于半年报的计算值。",
      "核心问题三：有没有审计、质押或假便宜陷阱？【事实】2025年财报获致同标准无保留审计意见，年报“披露后面临退市情况”为不适用；2026年半年报称报告期不存在处罚及整改情况，淄博鲁诚和泰纶所持股份的质押、标记或冻结数量均为0。2025年度分红方案为每10股1.5元。【观点】已核材料未显示当前退市、非标审计或主要股东质押爆仓红旗，但这不是高回报证明。公司同时发行A/B股，A股流通市值不能与全部归母权益及利润直接配比；PB=0.361、股息率=0.042均需按同日股价、股份类别及最新实际分红重新核验。行业低回报、主业扣非下行本身足以使账面折价长期存在。来源：上述2025年报、2026年半年报及证券时报分红报道；审计、质押和处罚披露单源未交叉。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "已核至2026年半年报，但未穷尽截至2026-09-28的监管与期后公告。未完成五年累计自由现金流、维持性资本开支、受限货币资金、应收账款可回收性和库存减值压力测试；没有经同日A/B股价格核算的完整股权市值，因此不提供目标价或宣称真实PB低于0.7。任务面板10年ROE中位数与TTM指标不能替代上述核验。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/000726.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "findings[0]",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "利润成色",
    "估值口径",
    "现金转换"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "回避：债务到期已兑付、经营现金流为正，但扣非利润明显恶化，不能用投资收益抬高的利润及流通口径低PB证明安全边际。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "回避：债务到期已兑付、经营现金流为正，但扣非利润明显恶化，不能用投资收益抬高的利润及流通口径低PB证明安全边际。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}