{
  "code": "000828",
  "name": "东莞控股",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "高速公路",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "看不清：等待续期批复、扩建融资及新增资本回报明确，暂不因本地低PB和股息率直接买入。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.4764506127270043,
    "roe": 0.08879211165048544,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.06013889722087379,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 8.88%，权益乘数 1.48倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 6.01%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.08879211165048544,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.32270000000000004,
      "net_profit_ttm": 889000000.0,
      "equity": 10012150668.286757,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.06013889722087379
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.19030909090909093,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.12155344506517693,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.1461193866374589,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.10634107526881718,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.09291739130434783,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.06478620689655172,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.10778272251308899,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.08879211165048544,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.06478620689655172,
  "channels": [
    "value"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：二、反过来想，什么最可能损害长期价值？",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/000828.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "000828",
    "name": "东莞控股（东莞发展控股股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "芒格·行业竞争",
    "main_business": "已核对名称与代码。主营莞深高速公路运营，兼营融资租赁、商业保理及金融股权投资，并推进退出新能源汽车充换电业务。不是纯粹的高速公路收息资产。",
    "core_questions": [
      {
        "question": "一、区域路网优势是否等于永久护城河？",
        "analysis": "【事实】2026年半年报披露，莞深高速通行费收入5.92亿元，同比下降5.62%；小型汽车占车流量88.67%。公司将通行费下滑主要归因于改扩建施工。【观点】大湾区通勤需求和既有路权构成真实的进入壁垒，但这种优势不等于自主定价权：收费标准、期限由政策约束，施工和其他交通方式也会影响客流。反面论据是，本期通行费已经下降；没有竞争路段的分流数据，不能把区位优势直接认定为不可替代。来源：2026年半年报第三节，https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-20/1225482855.PDF；新浪转载同一公告，http://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=000828&id=12506718 。公告原文交叉核对，不属于独立经营验证。"
      },
      {
        "question": "二、反过来想，什么最可能损害长期价值？",
        "analysis": "【事实】现有莞深高速收费经营期至2027年6月30日；改扩建预计2028年12月前建成，批复概算175.84亿元，累计投入49.72亿元，资本金比例25%；最终延长收费年限以主管部门批复为准。【观点】主要风险不是同行降价，而是扩建投入、融资成本与最终获批经营年限不匹配。扩容可能增强竞争地位，反面是需要大量新增资本，不能用存量路产利润率估计新增投资回报。另有2026年4月16日公司业绩说明会表示原收费期到期后不会终止收费，因此也不能武断判断2027年必然停收；但管理层表态不能替代最终续期批复。概算及投入数据：半年报，单源未交叉；管理层表态：https://www.9fzt.com/detail/sz_000828_9_f681544a5adcd8ae5a94a18cb85538fd.html ，单源未交叉。"
      },
      {
        "question": "三、利润和现金流是否真正来自道路护城河？",
        "analysis": "【事实】2026年上半年营收下降8.51%，归母净利润增长3.38%至5.50亿元；投资收益2.29亿元，其中联营合营企业投资收益2.28亿元，同比增长105.62%。半年报明确，经营现金流增长主要受类金融项目净投放减少影响。【观点】道路现金回款和金融资产收益提供双重支撑，但券商投资收益具有资本市场周期性，类金融回收也不是道路内生增长。正面是利润仍增长；反面是增长质量不能完全归因于主业竞争优势。本地cf/np=2.821不足以证明可持续自由现金流，必须同时扣除扩建支出并分离金融业务现金流。来源：半年报；上海证券报报道交叉核对利润及投资收益，https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-08-19/doc-ininwpna8206472.shtml 。现金流归因单源未交叉。"
      }
    ],
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5）",
    "conclusion": "区位优势成立，但收费权期限、资本开支和非道路利润使其不适合直接套用稳定高股息公路估值。评分偏低主要因为续期经济条件尚不清楚，并非认定公司将停止经营。",
    "findings": [
      "核心发现1：护城河有期限。现有收费经营期至2027年6月30日，扩建预计2028年12月前完成，延长期限仍以批复为准；不能把永久收费作为估值前提。来源：2026年半年报第三节，https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-20/1225482855.PDF ，单源未交叉。",
      "核心发现2：扩建不是低成本续命。批复概算175.84亿元、累计投入49.72亿元，后续资金安排是股东回报的关键变量。来源：同一半年报第三节，单源未交叉。",
      "核心发现3：主业通行费下降，但投资收益增长推动归母利润增长；投资收益2.29亿元，归母利润5.50亿元，不宜把整体盈利视为纯道路年金。来源：半年报及上海证券报，https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-08-19/doc-ininwpna8206472.shtml ，已交叉核对。"
    ],
    "verdict": "看不清：等待续期批复、扩建融资及新增资本回报明确，暂不因本地低PB和股息率直接买入。",
    "data_gaps": "未取得最终收费延期批复、扩建资本金回报测算完整模型和竞争路段分流数据；不代表这些文件必然不存在。本地估值字段未注明具体截面，本次未验证其价格及市值口径；毛利率字段0.702存在单位标注歧义，未据此计算。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/000828.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "core_questions[1].question",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "估值口径",
    "收费权风险"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "看不清：等待续期批复、扩建融资及新增资本回报明确，暂不因本地低PB和股息率直接买入。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "看不清：等待续期批复、扩建融资及新增资本回报明确，暂不因本地低PB和股息率直接买入。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}