{
  "code": "002032",
  "name": "苏泊尔",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "小家电",
  "quality_tier": "silver",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": true,
  "quality_source": "quality_pools_V2.json",
  "score": 4,
  "verdict": "买入观察：品牌与渠道优势仍在，但盈利下降、出口客户集中和现金转化偏弱，需等利润与现金流企稳，不能仅凭高ROE和股息率买入。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.9516003122560501,
    "roe": 0.352138292799237,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.180435661230329,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 35.21%，权益乘数 1.95倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 18.04%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.352138292799237,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.4876,
      "net_profit_ttm": 2105000000.0,
      "equity": 5977765108.323832,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.180435661230329
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.30549676646706586,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.27804125,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.29891993499458286,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.2773400720164609,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.2718870406189555,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.35572844036697243,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.3725339126559715,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.352138292799237,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.2718870406189555,
  "channels": [
    "value",
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：买入观察：品牌与渠道优势仍在，但盈利下降、出口客户集中和现金转化偏弱，需等利润与现金流企稳，不能仅凭高ROE和股息率买入。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": "外销订单增速转正(当前SEB订单下滑) + PE<16倍",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true,
    "conversion_gap": "缺少与原条件同口径的已审每股数据；正常化/重组/剔投资收益/剩余收费期不能拿行情PE或未经审计中报直接代替。"
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 39.95,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 15.73,
    "dy": 0.0658,
    "market_cap": 31838000000.0,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002032",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "外销订单增速转正(当前SEB订单下滑) + PE<16倍",
    "verify": "出口订单企稳2个季度, 关联交易定价正常",
    "anchor": "ROE有高分红水分, 用正常化口径",
    "source": "H-055/056/057深研综合, 2026-09-28"
  },
  "research_file": "research/002032.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "002032",
    "name": "苏泊尔（浙江苏泊尔股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "段永平·商业模式",
    "business": "已通过2026年半年报确认代码与名称。主营明火炊具、厨房用具、厨房小家电及生活家居电器等，兼有国内品牌销售和向SEB集团供货的出口业务。",
    "score": "★★★★☆（4/5，商业模式评分，非当前价格买入评级）",
    "verdict": "买入观察：品牌与渠道优势仍在，但盈利下降、出口客户集中和现金转化偏弱，需等利润与现金流企稳，不能仅凭高ROE和股息率买入。",
    "core_questions": [
      "问题一：消费者为什么持续选择它，是否具备定价权？【事实】2026年半年报援引奥维云网监测，明火炊具线上、线下市场占有率均第一；公司通过纯钛炊具、电饭煲等产品升级维持竞争力。【观点】品牌信任、渠道覆盖和产品开发能力构成可理解的护城河，较单纯代工更好。【反面】市场排名来自公司转述，未取得奥维原始报告；厨电并非高转换成本产品，创新可能被模仿。同期收入下降0.59%、归母净利润下降7.70%，说明领先地位不等于可以无成本提价。来源：2026年半年报及摘要，https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002032&id=12563787 、https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002032&id=12563780 。市场排名为单源未交叉。",
      "问题二：SEB协同是护城河，还是依赖？【事实】半年报披露SEB INTERNATIONAL S.A.S持股83.35%，上半年与SEB集团及关联方实际发生日常关联交易332,400.61万元；公司称海外需求疲软，主要外销客户订单减少。【观点】SEB提供全球订单与技术、管理协同，有助于稳定制造体系；反面是控制权和出口渠道集中，中小股东需要关注关联定价与利润分配，不能将关联交易金额直接等同于出口收入。来源：上述半年报及摘要；持股和关联交易数字单源未交叉。",
      "问题三：高ROE是否能变成股东可支配现金？【事实】2026年上半年经营现金流4.84亿元、归母净利润8.68亿元，二者之比约0.56；期末归母净资产下降19.65%，业绩快报解释主要源于实施2025年度分红。【观点】分红说明资本回馈意愿，但缩小净资产分母也会抬升ROE，高ROE不能全部解释为新增资本回报率高。反面亦需保留：半年现金流存在季节性，不能据此认定全年盈利质量差。用户提供的股息率0.064、PB 5.498仅作未核验快照，不视为当前报价。来源：半年报摘要；分红原因见巨潮业绩快报 https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-07-23/1225436982.PDF 。现金流数字单源未交叉，比值为计算值。"
    ],
    "findings": [
      "最重要发现1：2026年上半年正式报告收入114.10亿元、归母净利润8.68亿元，分别下降0.59%和7.70%；与巨潮7月业绩快报在显示精度内一致，但属于同一公司披露链，不是独立审计交叉。来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002032&id=12563780 ；https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-07-23/1225436982.PDF 。",
      "最重要发现2：SEB既是控股股东又是重要业务伙伴；83.35%的持股比例和33.24亿元日常关联交易说明，商业模式分析必须同时考虑协同和关联依赖。来源：2026年半年报及摘要，https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002032&id=12563787 。单源未交叉。",
      "最重要发现3：上半年经营现金流只有归母净利润的约0.56倍，高ROE尚不能替代自由现金流验证；半年现金转化偏弱也不能直接外推全年。来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002032&id=12563780 。单源未交叉，比例为原始金额计算。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "主要依据2026年半年报，未经审计。未取得独立市占率底表、关联交易具体定价比较、连续五年维护性资本开支与自由现金流序列。用户量化快照缺少明确估值日期和字段口径，毛利率%=0.251未擅自按百分数或比例重释；未据此给出目标价。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [
    {
      "mode": "manual",
      "description": "出口订单企稳"
    }
  ],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/002032.json",
    "conditions": "watchlist.json",
    "quality": "quality_pools_V2.json",
    "quote": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002032",
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "verdict",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 4,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [],
  "reject_reason": "",
  "reject_reason_source": "",
  "tracking_state": "tracking",
  "verification_kind": "price_line",
  "verification_reason": "已深研；数值价格线待核，不等于深研否决",
  "tracking_kind": "价格与基本面",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "事件",
      "item": "外销订单增速转正(当前SEB订单下滑)",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "PE<16倍",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "事件",
      "item": "出口订单企稳2个季度, 关联交易定价正常",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}