{ "code": "002050", "name": "三花智控", "market": "A", "industry": "家电零部件", "quality_tier": "bronze", "quality_conflict": false, "in_quality_pool": true, "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）", "score": 3, "verdict": "3★挂疑点：热管理护城河可研究，但融资后回报与成长估值不匹配，拒绝为机器人期权提前付全价。", "dupont": { "margin": 0.13242369728894188, "turnover": 0.7232142408297814, "leverage": 1.663326032371858, "roe": 0.15929790460726428, "basis": "FY2025合并简单平均权益杜邦；非加权归母ROE", "conclusion": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率13.24%×资产周转0.723×权益乘数1.663=15.93%；期初/期末合并权益乘数1.862/1.542。归母两点平均权益ROE15.92%，扣非同分母15.51%；不冒充披露加权ROE。高ROE主要来自制造利润率与适中周转，而非高杠杆；H股融资扩充权益使分母骤变，2025加权ROE15.80%与两点均值口径不完全一致。扣非与归母接近，但汇兑属于经常损益，不能随意全加回。2026H1证券投资浮亏1.7913亿元，金融投资并非零风险。" }, "roe_series": [ { "year": 2019, "roe": 0.15843808049535604, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2020, "roe": 0.1551420126671358, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2021, "roe": 0.16901997264021887, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2022, "roe": 0.17678586698337292, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2023, "roe": 0.24637271667314417, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2024, "roe": 0.19967949332420404, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2025, "roe": 0.1998979670861568, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2026, "roe": 0.15897218803839525, "basis": "August TTM" } ], "roe_min": 0.1551420126671358, "channels": [ "roe_quality" ], "proxy_candidate": false, "death_risk": "整车厂压价或大客户设计切换，零件量增但毛利额不增；海外建厂成本与关税叠加，固定资产投资回收延长；机器人估值溢价消失且新增产能闲置；金融投资再亏蚕食可分配现金", "price_lines": { "watch": null, "good": null, "fat": null, "intrinsic_value": null, "basis": null, "condition": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于32亿元，估值≤22倍（保守对应总市值≤704亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。", "currency": "CNY", "manual_gate": true }, "current": { "price": 35.71, "date": "2026-09-30", "pe": 37.6, "dy": 0.011200000000000002, "market_cap": 150268000000.0, "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050", "currency": "CNY", "source_count": 1 }, "buy_conditions": { "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于32亿元，估值≤22倍（保守对应总市值≤704亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。", "verify": "剔除投资及汇兑异常后的逐业务盈利、海外扩产自由现金流；H股融资后的每股ROIC；热管理ASP/销量及前五大客户集中度；不把机器人尚未兑现利润入模。", "anchor": "2026-09-30行情35.71元；扣非TTM PE 36.69倍；正常化压力情景利润32—40亿元对应PE 37.57—46.96倍。0.28元参考DPS/股价=0.78%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。", "source": [ "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002050&id=12012988", "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002050&id=12550185", "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555" ] }, "research_file": "research/002050.html", "research_document": { "code": "002050", "name": "三花智控", "score": "★★★☆☆（3★挂疑点）", "verdict": "3★挂疑点：热管理护城河可研究，但融资后回报与成长估值不匹配，拒绝为机器人期权提前付全价。", "roe_quality_note": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率13.24%×资产周转0.723×权益乘数1.663=15.93%；期初/期末合并权益乘数1.862/1.542。归母两点平均权益ROE15.92%，扣非同分母15.51%；不冒充披露加权ROE。高ROE主要来自制造利润率与适中周转，而非高杠杆；H股融资扩充权益使分母骤变，2025加权ROE15.80%与两点均值口径不完全一致。扣非与归母接近，但汇兑属于经常损益，不能随意全加回。2026H1证券投资浮亏1.7913亿元，金融投资并非零风险。", "as_of": "2026-10-02", "business_and_moat": "【事实】主业为制冷空调控制阀、换热器及汽车热管理部件，年报汽车板块收入124.27亿元；2026H1收入增长3.92%、扣非增长6.82%。【判断】十年后热管理需求仍在，规模制造、良率、客户认证与协同设计形成工艺壁垒；但并非消费品牌式提价权，整车厂年降、竞争者追赶及客户自制都能分走价值。机器人执行器只能算未验证期权，不能计入成熟主业正常利润。", "management_and_capital_allocation": "家族控制、主业长期专注是优点；全球扩产和H股融资需按每股回报而非规模评估。2025年报末期方案每股0.28元；半年报2026中期方案0.12元未在本轮核验支付日，不并入已实现股息。回购专户股份存在，但用途与注销执行未完成穿透；证券投资亏损、机器人新业务和跨境资本开支是资本配置反证。未完成十年全部投资审计，不能宣称从无乱投资。", "growth_and_valuation": { "quote": { "price": 35.71, "timestamp": "20260930161500", "pe_ttm_vendor": "37.60", "market_cap_yi": "1502.68" }, "quote_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555", "basis": "腾讯总市值/全公司归母利润；未用流通市值或复权价。三花A价×全部A/H股本仅是A股统一估值、不是A+H真实市值。", "reported_2025_pe": 36.98548269158158, "recurring_ttm_pe": 36.691087891872414, "recurring_ttm_np_yi": 40.954904483300005, "normalized_scenario": { "parent_np_yi_range": [ 32, 40 ], "pe_range": [ 37.567, 46.95875 ], "status": "研究者保守压力情景，不是已验证正常化盈利预测；扣非TTM也不是周期中枢。", "rationale": "增长来自热泵、单车热管理复杂度及全球份额，而不是机器人订单传闻；2026H1增长明显慢于高成长定价。" }, "dividend": { "dps_cny": 0.28, "reference_yield_pct": 0.784094091290955, "basis": "2025年报末期方案单次DPS，不声称全年或TTM；实施日期未单独核验", "ttm_actual_paid_yield_pct": null, "limitation": "未完整核验所有分派实施公告及同股本TTM桥接，不把参考方案股息率当已实现TTM收益率；2026中期未认证支付的方案不计入。" } }, "buy_conditions": { "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于32亿元，估值≤22倍（保守对应总市值≤704亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。", "verify": "剔除投资及汇兑异常后的逐业务盈利、海外扩产自由现金流；H股融资后的每股ROIC；热管理ASP/销量及前五大客户集中度；不把机器人尚未兑现利润入模。", "anchor": "2026-09-30行情35.71元；扣非TTM PE 36.69倍；正常化压力情景利润32—40亿元对应PE 37.57—46.96倍。0.28元参考DPS/股价=0.78%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。", "source": [ "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002050&id=12012988", "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002050&id=12550185", "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555" ], "manual": true }, "risks_and_premortem": [ "整车厂压价或大客户设计切换，零件量增但毛利额不增", "海外建厂成本与关税叠加，固定资产投资回收延长", "机器人估值溢价消失且新增产能闲置；金融投资再亏蚕食可分配现金" ], "financial_facts_cny": { "fy2025": { "revenue": 31011744510.27, "parent_np": 4062891412.1, "recurring_parent_np": 3958316943.01, "cfo": 5090762717.98, "assets_end": 49406130603.74, "assets_start": 36354748426.21, "parent_equity_end": 31748926577.96, "parent_equity_start": 19297769106.48, "consolidated_np": 4106689867.43, "total_equity_end": 32040229502.58, "total_equity_start": 19519643523.43 }, "dupont": { "consolidated_net_margin_pct": 13.242369728894188, "asset_turnover": 0.7232142408297814, "equity_multiplier": 1.663326032371858, "consolidated_roe_pct": 15.929790460726428, "parent_margin_pct": 13.101137895530234, "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.6800476089599572, "parent_roe_simple_pct": 15.918332646704284, "recurring_parent_roe_simple_pct": 15.508611830546243, "equity_multiplier_start": 1.8624698951378045, "equity_multiplier_end": 1.5420030184166325 }, "h1_2026": { "revenue": 16899972560.57, "parent_np": 2044064626.07, "recurring_parent_np": 2147318645.13, "cfo": 2499553386.38, "prior_h1_recurring_parent_np": 2010145139.81 }, "recurring_ttm_np": 4095490448.3300004, "recurring_ttm_pe": 36.691087891872414, "cfo_to_parent_np_2025": 1.252990100306107, "cfo_to_parent_np_h1": 1.222834813782645, "h1_parent_dupont_not_annualized": { "parent_net_margin_pct": 12.0950765969827, "asset_turnover": 0.3350857788687647, "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.5699315715213797, "parent_roe_simple_pct": 6.362757081333443, "recurring_parent_roe_simple_pct": 6.684165823782694, "basis": "归母净利率×营收/平均合并资产×平均合并资产/平均归母权益，代数桥接；不是标准全合并杜邦。" } }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002050&id=12012988", "title": "2025年年度报告全文", "source_quality": "发行人公告，新浪镜像；单源", "sections": [ "主要会计数据", "管理层讨论", "利润分配", "合并资产负债表", "合并利润表", "财务附注" ], "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/002050-2025.txt" }, { "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002050&id=12550185", "title": "2026年半年度报告全文", "source_quality": "同一发行人公告，非独立双源", "sections": [ "主要会计数据", "非经常性损益", "管理层讨论", "财务附注" ], "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/002050-2026H1.txt" }, { "url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555", "title": "腾讯行情原始响应", "source_quality": "行情单源；时间2026-09-30，不能称10月2日成交", "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/quotes.txt" } ], "limitations": [ "财务数字来自实际读取年报及半年报，发行人单源；未完成独立双源核验。", "ROE拆解采用期初期末均值，与加权平均ROE不同；包含少数权益的合并与归母分开计算。", "九家均不因量化八年ROE门槛自动认证护城河；全市场面板有幸存者偏差。", "分红/回购/乱投资历史未穷尽；没有发现完整证据不等于没有风险。", "正常化区间和买入倍数是研究判断/门槛，不是事实、公允价格认证或投资建议。" ] }, "outside_watch": false, "triggers": [], "status": "watch", "provenance": { "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json", "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json", "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）", "quote": "腾讯行情；见原始深研来源" }, "research_rating": 3, "data_quality": [ "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证", "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入" ], "distance_pct": null, "quote_fresh": true, "triggered": false, "roe_discovery": true, "reject_reason_tags": [], "reject_reason": "", "reject_reason_source": "", "tracking_state": "observing", "verification_kind": "price_line", "verification_reason": "已深研；数值价格线待核，不等于深研否决", "tracking_kind": "", "tracking_checklist": [ { "type": "比率", "item": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于32亿元，估值≤22倍（保守对应总市值≤704亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑", "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "人工", "item": "当前不视为触发。", "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "人工", "item": "剔除投资及汇兑异常后的逐业务盈利、海外扩产自由现金流", "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "比率", "item": "H股融资后的每股ROIC", "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "人工", "item": "热管理ASP/销量及前五大客户集中度", "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "人工", "item": "不把机器人尚未兑现利润入模。", "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" } ], "monthly_review": { "month": "2026-10", "status": "本期未复核", "core_changes": "本期未复核", "reviewed_on": null, "event_count": null, "events": {}, "sources": [], "decision": null, "observations": {}, "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json" } }