{
  "code": "002372",
  "name": "伟星新材",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "管材",
  "quality_tier": "bench",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": true,
  "quality_source": "quality_pools_V2.json",
  "score": 3,
  "verdict": "买入观察：保留低杠杆、正现金流的价值候选资格，但在扣非盈利稳定及同日总市值估值核实前不买入。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.2961762799740766,
    "roe": 0.1729284750337382,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.13341431848852903,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 17.29%，权益乘数 1.30倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 13.34%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-06-30；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-06-30",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-08-31",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.1729284750337382,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.2285,
      "net_profit_ttm": 860000000.0,
      "equity": 4973154362.416107,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.13341431848852903
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.31196523517382413,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.246559511698881,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.31380972338642077,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.2591823385118561,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.2841005397070162,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.23337779329608938,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.1679878279118573,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.1729284750337382,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.1679878279118573,
  "channels": [
    "value",
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：现金创造与低杠杆优于单纯地产链周期公司，但最新归母利润增长主要由非经常项目支撑。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 8.74,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 16.18,
    "dy": 0.0508,
    "market_cap": 13913999999.999998,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002372",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/002372.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "002372",
    "name": "伟星新材（浙江伟星新型建材股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "巴菲特·财务估值",
    "business": "制造与销售中高档PPR、PE、PVC塑料管道，并拓展防水、净水等业务；零售装修业务是收入与利润主要来源，同时开展建筑和市政工程业务。名称、代码及主业由2025年年报摘要与2026年半年报确认，非002003伟星股份。",
    "core_questions": [
      {
        "question": "一、利润回升是不是主营经营拐点？",
        "analysis": "【事实】2025年归母净利润7.41亿元、同比下降22.24%，扣非利润6.84亿元、下降25.37%[伟1]。2026年上半年归母利润3.90亿元、增长43.90%，但收入18.97亿元、下降8.71%，扣非利润2.15亿元、下降19.65%。非经常性损益1.75亿元，约占归母利润44.77%，主要含基金投资收益和收购利得[伟2；上述数据同源公告，单源未交叉]。【观点】不能把报表利润回升当作主营反转，更不能给予增长型估值。正面是主营毛利率仍有41.83%，品牌和服务可能保有溢价；反面是核心PPR毛利率下降1.40个百分点，收入与扣非盈利继续收缩。估值应剔除不可持续收益，再判断地产及装修需求低迷时的正常盈利，而不是直接复用历史高ROE。"
      },
      {
        "question": "二、自由现金流与资产负债表提供多厚的保护？",
        "analysis": "【事实】2026年上半年经营现金流4.07亿元、下降29.88%，购建长期资产支出1.13亿元；相减得到简化自由现金流2.94亿元，进一步扣除取得子公司的现金净支出后为2.47亿元。期末资产负债率22.85%，货币资金10.72亿元，其中受限资金1.35亿元[伟2，单源未交叉，现金流为工具计算]。【观点】经营现金流为正、杠杆较低，确实降低再融资和债务危机风险；但现金流下降不支持继续外推面板中的高现金利润比。理财、受限现金和长期股权投资不能全部按可分配现金处理。上述简化现金流未区分维持性与增长性资本开支，不等于严格的股东盈余；正面是持续造血，反面是新增并购和下行需求会同时消耗缓冲，仍应看完整年度与多年累计表现。"
      },
      {
        "question": "三、面板显示的低估值和高股息是否可靠？",
        "analysis": "【事实】按2025年报及2026年中报滚动计算，归母TTM利润约8.60亿元，扣非TTM约6.32亿元[伟1、伟2，同一发行人数据，单源未交叉]。用用户提供的流通市值127.017亿元除以扣非TTM，已约20.11倍；这不是标准PE，因为分子缺少限售股份价值。2025年度实际每股分红0.35元，2026年中期不分红[伟2、伟3]。【观点】剔除一次性收益并统一总市值口径后，安全边际明显弱于面板E/P暗示。稳定分红历史值得肯定，反面是历史股息率不代表下一年度现金回报。尚未取得同日总市值、完整股息期间及维持性资本开支，不能给出精确内在价值；应等待主营盈利稳定，或价格充分补偿持续衰退的风险。"
      }
    ],
    "conclusion": "现金创造与低杠杆优于单纯地产链周期公司，但最新归母利润增长主要由非经常项目支撑。按扣非盈利重估后，并非显然便宜；财务质量可进入观察池，当前估值不足以支持高确信度买入。",
    "score": "★★★☆☆（3/5）",
    "findings": [
      "2026年上半年归母利润增长43.90%，扣非利润却下降19.65%；非经常性损益占归母利润约44.77%，是最重要的盈利质量警报。基金收益主要来自其金融资产公允价值变化，不能当作管道业务经常利润。同一公司公告经新浪展示，单源未交叉。来源：[伟2] http://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002372&id=12481601",
      "半年经营现金流减购建长期资产支出约2.94亿元，扣除并购现金净支出后约2.47亿元，仍为正；但经营现金流同比下降29.88%。数字由合并现金流量表计算，非维持性资本开支口径，单源未交叉。来源：[伟2] http://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002372&id=12481601",
      "扣非TTM约6.32亿元，用户流通市值/扣非TTM已约20.11倍，而且不是标准总市值PE；一次性收益和流通口径可能共同制造便宜错觉。2025年度每股分红实际为0.35元，不宜机械沿用面板5.2%股息率。单源未交叉。来源：[伟1] http://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002372&id=12059429 ；[伟2] http://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002372&id=12481601 ；[伟3] https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-08-07/doc-inimmtwp4204945.shtml"
    ],
    "verdict": "买入观察：保留低杠杆、正现金流的价值候选资格，但在扣非盈利稳定及同日总市值估值核实前不买入。",
    "data_gaps": "已读取2025年年报摘要及2026年半年报合并报表。最新半年报未经审计，新浪不同页面转载同一公告不视为独立来源交叉。缺少同日总市值、五年完整自由现金流、维持性资本开支、工程客户信用分层及并购后长期回报数据；未估算目标价。用户面板毛利率单位和股息期间不明确，流通市值不能代替标准估值分子。",
    "候补后续复核": [
      {
        "source": "results/2026-10-01-bench-batch1.json",
        "review": {
          "code": "002372",
          "name": "伟星新材",
          "original_verdict": "买入观察：保留低杠杆、正现金流的价值候选资格，但在扣非盈利稳定及同日总市值估值核实前不买入。",
          "doubt": "管道主业扣非利润是否稳定，剔除基金公允价值收益后的估值是否便宜。",
          "doubt_basis": "以batch_results.json筛选；其结论被截断，回读data/research/002372.json的完整结论及评分理由提炼",
          "evidence_results": [
            {
              "fact": "重新读取半年报：归母利润同比+43.90%，扣非215,416,026.14元、同比-19.65%；经营现金流同比-29.88%。",
              "url": "http://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002372&id=12481601",
              "source_limit": "单一公司披露源；不同转载载体不算独立双源；半年报未经审计"
            },
            {
              "fact": "同份报告明确长期股权投资增加主要由东鹏合立持有金融资产公允价值变动收益增加所致；不能按表观归母增长认定管道主业复苏。",
              "url": "http://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002372&id=12481601",
              "source_limit": "单一公司披露源；不同转载载体不算独立双源；半年报未经审计"
            }
          ],
          "resolution_status": "未解除",
          "decision": "维持",
          "suggested_rating": "3★观察候补",
          "reason": "表观利润增长仍有投资收益扰动，旧半年报下降不能冒充新增降级依据。",
          "missing_data": [
            "下一期主业扣非利润、毛利和工程回款",
            "剔除投资公允价值收益的正常化TTM利润",
            "同日总市值而非流通市值的扣非估值"
          ],
          "baseline_comparison": "以既有L2全文为基线；重新读取旧半年报不冒充新恶化。未取得足以证明疑点整体解除或较该基线进一步实质恶化的证据。"
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/002372.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "quality_pools_V2.json",
    "quote": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002372",
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-06-30"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "conclusion",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 3,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [],
  "reject_reason": "",
  "reject_reason_source": "",
  "tracking_state": "observing",
  "verification_kind": "price_line",
  "verification_reason": "已深研；数值价格线待核，不等于深研否决",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "买入观察：保留低杠杆、正现金流的价值候选资格，但在扣非盈利稳定及同日总市值估值核实前不买入。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}