{ "code": "002463", "name": "沪电股份", "market": "A", "industry": "印制电路板", "quality_tier": "bronze", "quality_conflict": false, "in_quality_pool": true, "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）", "score": 3, "verdict": "3★挂疑点：高端PCB竞争力与增长成立，但现金转化下降和AI峰值估值使安全边际不足。", "dupont": { "margin": 0.2015639295867296, "turnover": 0.7664821869149705, "leverage": 1.8288975465551822, "roe": 0.2825558219185837, "basis": "FY2025合并简单平均权益杜邦；非加权归母ROE", "conclusion": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率20.16%×资产周转0.766×权益乘数1.829=28.26%；期初/期末合并权益乘数1.780/1.868。归母两点平均权益ROE28.36%，扣非同分母27.90%；不冒充披露加权ROE。2025高ROE主要来自约20%的合并净利率，非财务杠杆；需警惕AI景气推动的产品结构与稼动率。2026H1归母29.23亿元但CFO11.51亿元，现金转化显著下降，不能把利润增长即当真复利。" }, "roe_series": [ { "year": 2019, "roe": 0.22902350877192984, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2020, "roe": 0.2907940298507462, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2021, "roe": 0.22159925539836187, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2022, "roe": 0.16654417293233084, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2023, "roe": 0.17167180616740088, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2024, "roe": 0.24052372769332453, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2025, "roe": 0.29330595284112876, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2026, "roe": 0.32158069073783363, "basis": "August TTM" } ], "roe_min": 0.16654417293233084, "channels": [ "roe_quality" ], "proxy_candidate": false, "death_risk": "云厂商预算削减导致高端PCB利用率下滑；技术路线、客户平台变更与海外认证不顺；存货及应收先上升而现金回收滞后；扩产债务在周期拐点放大损失", "price_lines": { "watch": null, "good": null, "fat": null, "intrinsic_value": null, "basis": null, "condition": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于30亿元，估值≤22倍（保守对应总市值≤660亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。", "currency": "CNY", "manual_gate": true }, "current": { "price": 115.93, "date": "2026-09-30", "pe": 44.06, "dy": 0.0043, "market_cap": 223091000000.0, "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002463", "currency": "CNY", "source_count": 1 }, "buy_conditions": { "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于30亿元，估值≤22倍（保守对应总市值≤660亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。", "verify": "连续季度回款和存货周转恢复、经营现金流覆盖维护与扩张投入；客户集中度、AI收入与非AI收入分开，验证新增产线回报而非只看订单。", "anchor": "2026-09-30行情115.93元；扣非TTM PE 45.42倍；正常化压力情景利润30—45亿元对应PE 49.58—74.36倍。0.5元参考DPS/股价=0.43%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。", "source": [ "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002463&id=12014866", "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002463&id=12534427", "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555" ] }, "research_file": "research/002463.html", "research_document": { "code": "002463", "name": "沪电股份", "score": "★★★☆☆（3★挂疑点）", "verdict": "3★挂疑点：高端PCB竞争力与增长成立，但现金转化下降和AI峰值估值使安全边际不足。", "roe_quality_note": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率20.16%×资产周转0.766×权益乘数1.829=28.26%；期初/期末合并权益乘数1.780/1.868。归母两点平均权益ROE28.36%，扣非同分母27.90%；不冒充披露加权ROE。2025高ROE主要来自约20%的合并净利率，非财务杠杆；需警惕AI景气推动的产品结构与稼动率。2026H1归母29.23亿元但CFO11.51亿元，现金转化显著下降，不能把利润增长即当真复利。", "as_of": "2026-10-02", "business_and_moat": "【事实】高多层PCB服务高速交换机、AI/HPC服务器及汽车；2025收入增长42%，2026H1收入增长61.17%、扣非增长70%。【判断】高频材料加工、层间良率和客户认证提高替换成本，十年后高速互连仍有需求；但PCB并非永久垄断，竞争来自深南、胜宏、台湾及全球高端厂商。高端产能紧张时的议价不应外推为永久提价权。", "management_and_capital_allocation": "长期聚焦PCB比跨界投资更可理解；2025末期方案每股0.50元，保留大量利润扩产。2026H1出售黄石供应链股权产生处置收益须剔除；海外建厂和高端产能资本开支需跟踪投产良率、周转和客户承诺。未穷尽历年回购与并购文件，不能作无劣迹认证。", "growth_and_valuation": { "quote": { "price": 115.93, "timestamp": "20260930161457", "pe_ttm_vendor": "44.06", "market_cap_yi": "2230.91" }, "quote_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555", "basis": "腾讯总市值/全公司归母利润；未用流通市值或复权价。", "reported_2025_pe": 58.36554795052279, "recurring_ttm_pe": 45.42419838182884, "recurring_ttm_np_yi": 49.11280946, "normalized_scenario": { "parent_np_yi_range": [ 30, 45 ], "pe_range": [ 49.57577777777777, 74.36366666666666 ], "status": "研究者保守压力情景，不是已验证正常化盈利预测；扣非TTM也不是周期中枢。", "rationale": "AI网络升级有真实增长，但资本支出集中于少数科技客户；供给上来后ASP和毛利率可能双降，正常化不等于最新半年乘二。" }, "dividend": { "dps_cny": 0.5, "reference_yield_pct": 0.4312947468299836, "basis": "2025年报末期方案单次DPS，不声称全年或TTM；实施日期未单独核验", "ttm_actual_paid_yield_pct": null, "limitation": "未完整核验所有分派实施公告及同股本TTM桥接，不把参考方案股息率当已实现TTM收益率；2026中期未认证支付的方案不计入。" } }, "buy_conditions": { "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于30亿元，估值≤22倍（保守对应总市值≤660亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。", "verify": "连续季度回款和存货周转恢复、经营现金流覆盖维护与扩张投入；客户集中度、AI收入与非AI收入分开，验证新增产线回报而非只看订单。", "anchor": "2026-09-30行情115.93元；扣非TTM PE 45.42倍；正常化压力情景利润30—45亿元对应PE 49.58—74.36倍。0.5元参考DPS/股价=0.43%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。", "source": [ "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002463&id=12014866", "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002463&id=12534427", "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555" ], "manual": true }, "risks_and_premortem": [ "云厂商预算削减导致高端PCB利用率下滑", "技术路线、客户平台变更与海外认证不顺", "存货及应收先上升而现金回收滞后；扩产债务在周期拐点放大损失" ], "financial_facts_cny": { "fy2025": { "revenue": 18945220585, "parent_np": 3822306272, "recurring_parent_np": 3760567906, "cfo": 3871967792, "assets_end": 28254274039, "assets_start": 21179935675, "parent_equity_end": 15112704642, "parent_equity_start": 11840778491, "consolidated_np": 3818673108, "total_equity_end": 15128086679, "total_equity_start": 11901426159 }, "dupont": { "consolidated_net_margin_pct": 20.15639295867296, "asset_turnover": 0.7664821869149705, "equity_multiplier": 1.8288975465551822, "consolidated_roe_pct": 28.25558219185837, "parent_margin_pct": 20.175570164785178, "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.8340564545988542, "parent_roe_simple_pct": 28.362243596785675, "recurring_parent_roe_simple_pct": 27.90413311291718, "equity_multiplier_start": 1.7796132490376777, "equity_multiplier_end": 1.8676700258613055 }, "h1_2026": { "revenue": 13689427504, "parent_np": 2923361746, "recurring_parent_np": 2794525941, "cfo": 1150686191, "prior_h1_recurring_parent_np": 1643812901 }, "recurring_ttm_np": 4911280946, "recurring_ttm_pe": 45.42419838182884, "cfo_to_parent_np_2025": 1.0129925538316464, "cfo_to_parent_np_h1": 0.3936174483279292, "h1_parent_dupont_not_annualized": { "parent_net_margin_pct": 21.354886792349824, "asset_turnover": 0.4153505925574524, "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.9913494888263705, "parent_roe_simple_pct": 17.66280176617004, "recurring_parent_roe_simple_pct": 16.88438243875919, "basis": "归母净利率×营收/平均合并资产×平均合并资产/平均归母权益，代数桥接；不是标准全合并杜邦。" } }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002463&id=12014866", "title": "2025年年度报告全文", "source_quality": "发行人公告，新浪镜像；单源", "sections": [ "主要会计数据", "管理层讨论", "利润分配", "合并资产负债表", "合并利润表", "财务附注" ], "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/002463-2025.txt" }, { "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002463&id=12534427", "title": "2026年半年度报告全文", "source_quality": "同一发行人公告，非独立双源", "sections": [ "主要会计数据", "非经常性损益", "管理层讨论", "财务附注" ], "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/002463-2026H1.txt" }, { "url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555", "title": "腾讯行情原始响应", "source_quality": "行情单源；时间2026-09-30，不能称10月2日成交", "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/quotes.txt" } ], "limitations": [ "财务数字来自实际读取年报及半年报，发行人单源；未完成独立双源核验。", "ROE拆解采用期初期末均值，与加权平均ROE不同；包含少数权益的合并与归母分开计算。", "九家均不因量化八年ROE门槛自动认证护城河；全市场面板有幸存者偏差。", "分红/回购/乱投资历史未穷尽；没有发现完整证据不等于没有风险。", "正常化区间和买入倍数是研究判断/门槛，不是事实、公允价格认证或投资建议。" ] }, "outside_watch": false, "triggers": [], "status": "watch", "provenance": { "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json", "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json", "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）", "quote": "腾讯行情；见原始深研来源" }, "research_rating": 3, "data_quality": [ "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证", "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入" ], "distance_pct": null, "quote_fresh": true, "triggered": false, "roe_discovery": true, "reject_reason_tags": [], "reject_reason": "", "reject_reason_source": "", "tracking_state": "observing", "verification_kind": "price_line", "verification_reason": "已深研；数值价格线待核，不等于深研否决", "tracking_kind": "", "tracking_checklist": [ { "type": "比率", "item": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于30亿元，估值≤22倍（保守对应总市值≤660亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑", "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "人工", "item": "当前不视为触发。", "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "人工", "item": "连续季度回款和存货周转恢复、经营现金流覆盖维护与扩张投入", "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "事件", "item": "客户集中度、AI收入与非AI收入分开，验证新增产线回报而非只看订单。", "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" } ], "monthly_review": { "month": "2026-10", "status": "本期未复核", "core_changes": "本期未复核", "reviewed_on": null, "event_count": null, "events": {}, "sources": [], "decision": null, "observations": {}, "source_file": 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