{
  "code": "002555",
  "name": "三七互娱",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "传媒",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "2★回避：最新归母增长由投资收益遮盖游戏扣非下滑，单品盈利接力及资本配置均未验证。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": 0.18157324882491135,
    "turnover": 0.7621236519424086,
    "leverage": 1.5700243054639433,
    "roe": 0.21726195337940526,
    "basis": "FY2025合并简单平均权益杜邦；非加权归母ROE",
    "conclusion": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率18.16%×资产周转0.762×权益乘数1.570=21.73%；期初/期末合并权益乘数1.504/1.632。归母两点平均权益ROE21.93%，扣非同分母21.51%；不冒充披露加权ROE。2025低杠杆ROE表面较好，但2026H1归母增长26.14%与扣非下降26.74%相反；非经常损益7.4996亿元，非经常表金融资产相关税前项目9.8599亿元，投资收益10.1601亿元且权益法收益9.6855亿元。必须剔除金融/投资支撑；不能把税前项目直接减归母净利或把权益法收益当现金。H1扣非/平均归母权益约7.36%，未年化。"
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.20404549058473737,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.42959867612293146,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.24164650488953282,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.3908278164116829,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.21375710900473932,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.21135517111696125,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.21619393939393938,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.2415776551724138,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.20404549058473737,
  "channels": [
    "value",
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "存量爆款衰减、新游失败而买量费用先花；版号/未成年人规则、平台分成及海外监管；投资估值逆转叠加游戏扣非衰退，分红率表面稳定实际消耗本金",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于18亿元，估值≤12倍（保守对应总市值≤216亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 17.2,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 11.65,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": 38050000000.0,
    "source": "腾讯行情；见原始深研来源",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于18亿元，估值≤12倍（保守对应总市值≤216亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。",
    "verify": "逐单品和地区同市场流水/收入/贡献利润、Top1/Top5集中度、买量LTV/CAC及新品接力；扣非和经营现金持续企稳；权益法/公允价值变动与实际现金股利桥接；治理与投资退出记录。",
    "anchor": "2026-09-30行情17.20元；扣非TTM PE 15.38倍；正常化压力情景利润18—24亿元对应PE 15.85—21.14倍。1.03元参考DPS/股价=5.99%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。",
    "source": [
      "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002555&id=12099018",
      "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002555&id=12534508",
      "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555"
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  },
  "research_file": "research/002555.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "002555",
    "name": "三七互娱",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2★回避）",
    "verdict": "2★回避：最新归母增长由投资收益遮盖游戏扣非下滑，单品盈利接力及资本配置均未验证。",
    "roe_quality_note": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率18.16%×资产周转0.762×权益乘数1.570=21.73%；期初/期末合并权益乘数1.504/1.632。归母两点平均权益ROE21.93%，扣非同分母21.51%；不冒充披露加权ROE。2025低杠杆ROE表面较好，但2026H1归母增长26.14%与扣非下降26.74%相反；非经常损益7.4996亿元，非经常表金融资产相关税前项目9.8599亿元，投资收益10.1601亿元且权益法收益9.6855亿元。必须剔除金融/投资支撑；不能把税前项目直接减归母净利或把权益法收益当现金。H1扣非/平均归母权益约7.36%，未年化。",
    "as_of": "2026-10-02",
    "business_and_moat": "【事实】游戏研发、代理发行及买量运营，成熟产品包括寻道大千、Puzzles & Survival等；2026H1收入下降14.28%、扣非下降26.74%。【判断】买量数据与发行能力可复用，十年后游戏需求仍在但现有单品未必存在；玩家付费和流量平台决定分成与获客成本，不能把短期爆款当耐久护城河或任意提价权。腾讯、网易及独立研发商/发行商构成竞争。",
    "management_and_capital_allocation": "2025全年分红方案每股1.03元，三个季度0.63加末期0.40，不能重复相加；2026半年报确认末期及一季度分红合计13.42亿元已实施。过往回购注销有回报意义，但AI、量子、脑机等多领域投资与全球业务中心建设偏离游戏现金回报，构成资本配置疑点。不能以投资浮盈证明投资能力，更不能依赖其覆盖长期分红。",
    "growth_and_valuation": {
      "quote": {
        "price": 17.2,
        "timestamp": "20260930161430",
        "pe_ttm_vendor": "11.65",
        "market_cap_yi": "380.50"
      },
      "quote_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555",
      "basis": "腾讯总市值/全公司归母利润；未用流通市值或复权价。",
      "reported_2025_pe": 13.119657715737045,
      "recurring_ttm_pe": 15.37724673984924,
      "recurring_ttm_np_yi": 24.744351601899996,
      "normalized_scenario": {
        "parent_np_yi_range": [
          18,
          24
        ],
        "pe_range": [
          15.854166666666666,
          21.13888888888889
        ],
        "status": "研究者保守压力情景，不是已验证正常化盈利预测；扣非TTM也不是周期中枢。",
        "rationale": "已读资料列举多款产品，并不证明收入分散：缺逐单品当期收入、贡献利润、买量回收周期和Top1/Top5占比，单品依赖未解除。Puzzles & Survival累计流水超过168亿元为上线以来累计、不是当期收入。新品数量、榜单和累计用户均不能替代盈利接力证据。"
      },
      "dividend": {
        "dps_cny": 1.03,
        "reference_yield_pct": 5.988372093023256,
        "basis": "2025归属年度全年方案(含中期)，末期实施仍待单独核验",
        "ttm_actual_paid_yield_pct": null,
        "limitation": "未完整核验所有分派实施公告及同股本TTM桥接，不把参考方案股息率当已实现TTM收益率；2026中期未认证支付的方案不计入。"
      }
    },
    "buy_conditions": {
      "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于18亿元，估值≤12倍（保守对应总市值≤216亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。",
      "verify": "逐单品和地区同市场流水/收入/贡献利润、Top1/Top5集中度、买量LTV/CAC及新品接力；扣非和经营现金持续企稳；权益法/公允价值变动与实际现金股利桥接；治理与投资退出记录。",
      "anchor": "2026-09-30行情17.20元；扣非TTM PE 15.38倍；正常化压力情景利润18—24亿元对应PE 15.85—21.14倍。1.03元参考DPS/股价=5.99%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。",
      "source": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002555&id=12099018",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002555&id=12534508",
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      "manual": true
    },
    "risks_and_premortem": [
      "存量爆款衰减、新游失败而买量费用先花",
      "版号/未成年人规则、平台分成及海外监管",
      "投资估值逆转叠加游戏扣非衰退，分红率表面稳定实际消耗本金"
    ],
    "financial_facts_cny": {
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        "revenue": 15965709257.73,
        "parent_np": 2900228102.32,
        "recurring_parent_np": 2845358422.2,
        "cfo": 3538334677.62,
        "assets_end": 22315257868.14,
        "assets_start": 19582691938.4,
        "parent_equity_end": 13534207976.09,
        "parent_equity_start": 12920729844.38,
        "consolidated_np": 2898945699.72,
        "total_equity_end": 13669572854.28,
        "total_equity_start": 13016606245.45
      },
      "dupont": {
        "consolidated_net_margin_pct": 18.157324882491135,
        "asset_turnover": 0.7621236519424086,
        "equity_multiplier": 1.5700243054639433,
        "consolidated_roe_pct": 21.726195337940528,
        "parent_margin_pct": 18.16535711318818,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.5837478088540689,
        "parent_roe_simple_pct": 21.9257979134307,
        "recurring_parent_roe_simple_pct": 21.510981741929104,
        "equity_multiplier_start": 1.5044391425180583,
        "equity_multiplier_end": 1.6324766037698828
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      "h1_2026": {
        "revenue": 7274643508.72,
        "parent_np": 1766269020.71,
        "recurring_parent_np": 1016313090.37,
        "cfo": 1088989342.51,
        "prior_h1_recurring_parent_np": 1387236352.38
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      "recurring_ttm_np": 2474435160.1899996,
      "recurring_ttm_pe": 15.37724673984924,
      "cfo_to_parent_np_2025": 1.22001944426011,
      "cfo_to_parent_np_h1": 0.6165478359985338,
      "h1_parent_dupont_not_annualized": {
        "parent_net_margin_pct": 24.27980173314062,
        "asset_turnover": 0.3212518373499358,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.639498959422201,
        "parent_roe_simple_pct": 12.787978622418692,
        "recurring_parent_roe_simple_pct": 7.358216625523728,
        "basis": "归母净利率×营收/平均合并资产×平均合并资产/平均归母权益，代数桥接；不是标准全合并杜邦。"
      }
    },
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002555&id=12099018",
        "title": "2025年年度报告全文",
        "source_quality": "发行人公告，新浪镜像；单源",
        "sections": [
          "主要会计数据",
          "管理层讨论",
          "利润分配",
          "合并资产负债表",
          "合并利润表",
          "财务附注"
        ],
        "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/002555-2025.txt"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002555&id=12534508",
        "title": "2026年半年度报告全文",
        "source_quality": "同一发行人公告，非独立双源",
        "sections": [
          "主要会计数据",
          "非经常性损益",
          "管理层讨论",
          "财务附注"
        ],
        "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/002555-2026H1.txt"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555",
        "title": "腾讯行情原始响应",
        "source_quality": "行情单源；时间2026-09-30，不能称10月2日成交",
        "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/quotes.txt"
      }
    ],
    "limitations": [
      "财务数字来自实际读取年报及半年报，发行人单源；未完成独立双源核验。",
      "ROE拆解采用期初期末均值，与加权平均ROE不同；包含少数权益的合并与归母分开计算。",
      "九家均不因量化八年ROE门槛自动认证护城河；全市场面板有幸存者偏差。",
      "分红/回购/乱投资历史未穷尽；没有发现完整证据不等于没有风险。",
      "正常化区间和买入倍数是研究判断/门槛，不是事实、公允价格认证或投资建议。"
    ]
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json",
    "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json",
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": "腾讯行情；见原始深研来源",
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
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  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
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    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "利润成色",
    "单品依赖"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "2★回避：最新归母增长由投资收益遮盖游戏扣非下滑，单品盈利接力及资本配置均未验证。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
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      "type": "比率",
      "item": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于18亿元，估值≤12倍（保守对应总市值≤216亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "当前不视为触发。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "事件",
      "item": "逐单品和地区同市场流水/收入/贡献利润、Top1/Top5集中度、买量LTV/CAC及新品接力",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "扣非和经营现金持续企稳",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "权益法/公允价值变动与实际现金股利桥接",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "治理与投资退出记录。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}