{
  "code": "002595",
  "name": "豪迈科技",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "机械设备",
  "quality_tier": "silver",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": true,
  "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
  "score": 4,
  "verdict": "工艺型护城河质量候选、待现金兑现与价格：低杠杆高回报确实存在，但不可忽视应收、扩产与对外委贷。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": 0.21603471533770038,
    "turnover": 0.8378431331073254,
    "leverage": 1.2072208430285258,
    "roe": 0.21851083902496513,
    "basis": "FY2025归母桥接（含少数权益影响）",
    "conclusion": "FY2025杜邦21.60%×0.838×1.207=21.85%，扣非20.70%；本批低杠杆高回报最清晰之一。反证是全年CFO/归母仅0.432、简单FCF1.21亿元，现金转换明显拖后，4★是生意质量不是已认证可买。"
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.1862208389715832,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.21738122827346462,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.20002701092353523,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.16672754036087373,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.20386250000000003,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.22540533498759305,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.2396674291397315,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.21754450480568324,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.16672754036087373,
  "channels": [
    "compounder",
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "新业务资本密集度上升、应收回款落后，工艺优势没转成股东现金。；非主业委贷发生信用损失或关联利益输送。；全球轮胎/装备投资减速叠加人员刚性成本，利润率回落。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": 27.586206896551722,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": "深研条件价；全部人工验证仍须满足",
    "condition": "正常化利润保守端20.0亿元下总股权PE≤16倍，条件价约27.59元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 38.4,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 19.12,
    "dy": 0.018000000000000002,
    "market_cap": 44544000000.0,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002595",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "正常化利润保守端20.0亿元下总股权PE≤16倍，条件价约27.59元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
    "verify": "多年度CFO/利润恢复≥0.8、应收票据和账龄；委托贷款2026-09到期回款及对象关联性；扩产项目投产ROIC；转增股本后每股数据必须统一。",
    "anchor": "2026-09-30未复权收盘38.40元，总市值445.44亿元；正常化PE19.37—22.27倍。阈值是研究判断，无历史估值分位背书。",
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/002595.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "002595",
    "name": "豪迈科技",
    "score": "4★",
    "verdict": "工艺型护城河质量候选、待现金兑现与价格：低杠杆高回报确实存在，但不可忽视应收、扩产与对外委贷。",
    "roe_quality_note": "FY2025杜邦21.60%×0.838×1.207=21.85%，扣非20.70%；本批低杠杆高回报最清晰之一。反证是全年CFO/归母仅0.432、简单FCF1.21亿元，现金转换明显拖后，4★是生意质量不是已认证可买。",
    "quote": {
      "price": 38.4,
      "time": "20260930161454",
      "market_cap": 44544000000.0,
      "currency": "CNY",
      "source_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002595",
      "source_count": 1,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T03:49:35.097463+00:00"
    },
    "facts_vs_opinion": "financial_facts/quote为来源事实与计算；business/management/growth/risk及估值阈值为研究判断，不是管理层预测或自动买入指令。",
    "roe_discovery": {
      "minimum": 0.1667275403608737,
      "mean": 0.207104548432808,
      "basis": "2019—2026八月末TTM年度采样，非8个完整财年；面板未剔非经常损益，单源且有幸存者偏差"
    },
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002595&id=12041754",
        "source_count": 1,
        "type": "发行人年报新浪镜像，非独立第二源"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002595&id=12571826",
        "source_count": 1,
        "type": "发行人2026中报新浪镜像"
      }
    ],
    "financial_facts": {
      "revenue": 11078445744.05,
      "revenue_prev": 8813372089.39,
      "profit": 2393328872.7,
      "profit_prev": 2011422999.24,
      "adjusted_profit": 2266952993.97,
      "adjusted_profit_prev": 1886618876.58,
      "assets": 14766821128.89,
      "assets_prev": 11678333832.19,
      "equity": 12026670875.68,
      "equity_prev": 9879142889.71,
      "cfo": 1033723042.98,
      "cfo_prev": 1139332503.4,
      "capex": 912500248.82,
      "capex_prev": 372163893.9,
      "source_url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002595&id=12041754",
      "source_count": 1,
      "dupont": {
        "parent_net_margin": 0.21603471533770038,
        "asset_turnover": 0.8378431331073254,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.2072208430285258,
        "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.21851083902496513,
        "adjusted_roe": 0.20697272589358565
      },
      "cfo_to_parent_profit": 0.4319185109791535,
      "simple_fcf": 121222794.15999997,
      "period": "FY2025",
      "currency": "CNY",
      "H1_2026": {
        "source_url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002595&id=12571826",
        "revenue": 6016260725.89,
        "revenue_prev": 5265115116.12,
        "profit": 1133633584.68,
        "profit_prev": 1196828824.5,
        "cfo": 298291814.21,
        "cfo_prev": 324244785.99
      },
      "latest_ttm_parent_profit": 2330133632.88,
      "H1_profit_yoy": -0.052802237484881,
      "H1_revenue_yoy": 0.1426646128724227
    },
    "dupont": {
      "parent_net_margin": 0.21603471533770038,
      "asset_turnover": 0.8378431331073254,
      "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.2072208430285258,
      "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.21851083902496513,
      "adjusted_roe": 0.20697272589358565
    },
    "business": {
      "essence": "轮胎模具是多品种、精度与交付要求高的工业耗用型资本品；大型零部件/数控机床把制造工艺向邻近领域延伸。",
      "moat": "模具工艺、交付响应、技术员工组织和全球客户服务形成隐性知识壁垒，非一纸专利。",
      "countercase": "大型铸件/机床扩张可能降低高毛利模具占比；汽车轮胎资本开支、风电/燃机周期不可能同时永远强。"
    },
    "management": {
      "assessment": "长期制造聚焦有连续性，员工激励和工艺改进需最终体现单人产出；但2025末委托贷款余额4.45亿元、委贷损益3446万元，现金出借非主营对象要单独审核。",
      "capital_allocation": "FY2025CFO10.34亿元、购建长期资产9.13亿元，净现金产出远逊23.93亿元利润；2026H1CFO2.98亿元、利润11.34亿元，尚未出现足够修复。不能以低负债率忽略资金效率。"
    },
    "growth_valuation": {
      "growth": "模具全球化、燃机/大型零部件及机床增长可提供再投资空间；H1收入60.16亿元增长但利润下滑，须观察业务混合、汇率和人工成本，而非照搬早期两位数利润成长。",
      "normalization": "以FY2025扣非22.67亿元，叠加2026H1盈利回落，正常化20—23亿元；不资本化委贷收益/景气周期峰值。",
      "normalized_profit_cny": [
        2000000000.0,
        2300000000.0
      ],
      "normalization_status": "分析假设，非公司指引；不等于净现金流",
      "normalized_pe_range": [
        19.36695652173913,
        22.272
      ],
      "reported_ttm_pe_calculated": 19.116500174689328,
      "threshold_pe": 16,
      "conditional_price_cny": 27.586206896551722,
      "share_basis": "行情全股本总市值/同日报价反推每股锚；不用旧EPS或复权价格，已避免伯特利/豪迈转增口径错配。"
    },
    "buy_conditions": {
      "buy_when": "正常化利润保守端20.0亿元下总股权PE≤16倍，条件价约27.59元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
      "verify": "多年度CFO/利润恢复≥0.8、应收票据和账龄；委托贷款2026-09到期回款及对象关联性；扩产项目投产ROIC；转增股本后每股数据必须统一。",
      "anchor": "2026-09-30未复权收盘38.40元，总市值445.44亿元；正常化PE19.37—22.27倍。阈值是研究判断，无历史估值分位背书。"
    },
    "risk_death": [
      "新业务资本密集度上升、应收回款落后，工艺优势没转成股东现金。",
      "非主业委贷发生信用损失或关联利益输送。",
      "全球轮胎/装备投资减速叠加人员刚性成本，利润率回落。"
    ],
    "worst_case": "先将委托贷款打折而非全按现金估值；重资产增量若无回报，原模具护城河也不保证全公司复利。",
    "four_master_summary": {
      "巴菲特": "见business与dupont：护城河、经济回报与现金可持续性。",
      "芒格": "见management：资本配置、激励、并购与反面论据。",
      "费雪林奇": "见growth_valuation与buy_conditions：增长来源、正常化估值与验证条件。",
      "格雷厄姆烟蒂压力": "见worst_case与risk_death：本批不因高ROE认定净资产具有清算保护。"
    },
    "data_quality": {
      "financial_source_count": 1,
      "independent_double_source_verified": false,
      "status": "primary_source_grounded_with_explicit_valuation_assumptions",
      "quote_source": "Tencent独立行情仅验证价格，不是财报数字独立双源",
      "dupont_basis": "归母净利率(归母利润/合并收入) × 合并收入/平均合并总资产 × 平均合并总资产/平均归母权益；含少数权益结构影响，权益乘数不是纯有息债杠杆。用年初年末均值，不等于公司加权ROE。",
      "fcf_basis": "若有simple_fcf为合并CFO−购建长期资产现金；未扣收购/租赁全部本金、未剔增长capex、含NCI，不冒充归母可分配FCF。",
      "limits": [
        "财务为发行人单源，镜像/同发行人中报不构成独立双源。",
        "正常化盈利、买入倍数和压力情景为分析假设；未构建完整DCF、估值历史分位或收购逐笔IRR。",
        "2026中报后至研究时点全部公告未逐条覆盖，重大后续事项需执行前补查。"
      ]
    }
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json",
    "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json",
    "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
    "quote": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002595"
  },
  "research_rating": 4,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": 39.2,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [],
  "reject_reason": "",
  "reject_reason_source": "",
  "tracking_state": "tracking",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "价格与基本面",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "正常化利润保守端20.0亿元下总股权PE≤16倍，条件价约27.59元",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "多年度CFO/利润恢复≥0.8、应收票据和账龄",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "委托贷款2026-09到期回款及对象关联性",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "扩产项目投产ROIC",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "转增股本后每股数据必须统一。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}