{
  "code": "002773",
  "name": "康弘药业",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "行业待核验",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "看不清：等待核心产品量价企稳、现金回收改善和研发资本配置披露增强，再判断是否具备安全边际。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.0658708164570454,
    "roe": 0.11978847807394666,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.11238555012897676,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 11.98%，权益乘数 1.07倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 11.24%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.11978847807394666,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.061799999999999994,
      "net_profit_ttm": 1070000000.0,
      "equity": 8932411674.34716,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.11238555012897676
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.1921510791366907,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.1654398328690808,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.1728649025069638,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.09098717339667459,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.13635117056856186,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.1649247846889952,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.1499359361880772,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.11978847807394666,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.09098717339667459,
  "channels": [
    "value"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：最可能造成永久损失的风险是否已经显现？",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/002773.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "002773",
    "name": "康弘药业（成都康弘药业集团股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "李录·风险管理层",
    "business": "主营生物制品、中成药、化学药及相关医疗器械的研发、生产和销售，重点包括以康柏西普眼用注射液为主的生物药业务。名称与主营经2025年年报及2026年半年报报道确认，来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002773&id=12151684。",
    "core_questions": [
      {
        "question": "管理层是否能把经营目标转化为可核验的结果？",
        "analysis": "【事实】2025年董事会披露内部预算目标为收入、净利润分别增长5%—15%，并明确不是盈利预测；2025年实际收入增长2.98%，归母净利润下降2.37%。[K1、K2，各单源未交叉]当时董事长为柯尊洪、总裁为柯潇，薪酬议案相关董事回避表决。[K1]【观点】长期核心团队有利于研发战略连续性，程序性回避也是正面信息，但不能据此证明资本配置卓越。实际经营明显低于预算，需要管理层解释产品价格、销量和费用的各自影响，并说明如何纠偏。【反面论据】预算未达成不等于虚假承诺或诚信缺陷；本次也未完成监管处罚、关联交易和资金占用的全量核查，因此不作“治理完全无风险”结论。"
      },
      {
        "question": "研发投入是长期复利，还是持续消耗核心产品现金？",
        "analysis": "【事实】2026年上半年研发投入2.97亿元，同比增长30.69%；报道列示KH631、KH658等眼科基因治疗项目仍在临床阶段。[K3，单源未交叉]公司2025年半年报回顾：康柏西普国际Ⅲ期项目在2021年经科学指导委员会中期评议后停止，原因是继续推进难获有注册价值的结果。[K4，单源未交叉]【观点】在竞争压力下继续研发是必要投入，及时停止缺乏价值的项目也体现止损能力；但历史失败说明国际化研发不能按“获准临床即商业成功”定价。应要求逐项目预算上限、里程碑、退出条件及资本化依据。未获得这些资料之前，新管线只能作为不确定的增量机会，不能用来填补核心现金牛衰退留下的估值缺口。"
      },
      {
        "question": "最可能造成永久损失的风险是否已经显现？",
        "analysis": "【事实】2026年上半年收入21.79亿元、归母净利润5.65亿元，同比下降11.19%和22.61%；新浪与证券之星转述数字一致，但底层仍是同一财报。[K3、K5]其中生物药收入11.02亿元、同比下降18.13%，经营现金净流量5.40亿元、同比下降41.06%。[K3，细分数字单源未交叉]【观点】这比面板上的历史高ROE更值得风险管理者重视：核心业务收入与现金同时转弱，单凭高毛利率不能保护股东回报。正面是公司仍盈利且经营现金流为正；反面是价格治理、集采与替代疗法可能压低长期经济利润。没有康柏西普量价拆分及新品净现金贡献，尚无法区分短期调整与长期盈利能力下降。"
      }
    ],
    "conclusion": "已有产品与研发能力构成经营基础，但核心生物药下滑、现金流收缩和研发不确定性叠加，管理层资本配置的可预测性不足。评分针对当前风险可见度，不代表认定管理层失信。",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5）",
    "verdict": "看不清：等待核心产品量价企稳、现金回收改善和研发资本配置披露增强，再判断是否具备安全边际。",
    "findings": [
      "最重要发现一：2026年上半年收入和归母净利润分别下降11.19%、22.61%，并非仅仅因研发增加导致利润下降，主营收入本身也承压。来源K3：https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/roll/2026-08-26/doc-inipsezp5936163.shtml；K5：https://stock.stockstar.com/RB2026082700011811.shtml；两家媒体一致但非独立底层数据。",
      "最重要发现二：生物药上半年收入下降18.13%，经营现金净流量下降41.06%，研发投入增长30.69%；三者叠加提高资本配置难度。单源未交叉，来源K3：https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/roll/2026-08-26/doc-inipsezp5936163.shtml。",
      "最重要发现三：2025年收入、净利润均未达到内部预算增长区间，且此前国际Ⅲ期临床停止提示研发失败风险不可忽略。各事项单源未交叉，预算来源K1：http://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002773&id=11011186；实绩来源K2：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002773&id=12151684；临床停止来源K4：https://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002773&id=11392649。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "新浪2025年年报正文提取失败，改以搜索返回的公告正文片段核实；未完成2026年半年报全文、最新控制权及质押、关联交易、销售合规、研发资本化与逐项目预算核查。未拿到康柏西普量价拆分、竞争产品实际份额及临床成功概率，不预测填空。用户面板仅作筛选线索，未复核估值日期、总市值口径及毛利率单位。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/002773.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "core_questions[2].question",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "现金转换"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "看不清：等待核心产品量价企稳、现金回收改善和研发资本配置披露增强，再判断是否具备安全边际。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "看不清：等待核心产品量价企稳、现金回收改善和研发资本配置披露增强，再判断是否具备安全边际。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}