{
  "code": "002847",
  "name": "盐津铺子",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "食品综合",
  "quality_tier": "bronze",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": true,
  "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
  "score": 3,
  "verdict": "3★挂疑点：高ROE有经营效率支撑，估值接近可研究区，但弱提价权与渠道集中尚不足升4★。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": 0.12888437264968375,
    "turnover": 1.4979305426972218,
    "leverage": 1.9556338757427272,
    "roe": 0.3775543597629617,
    "basis": "FY2025合并简单平均权益杜邦；非加权归母ROE",
    "conclusion": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率12.89%×资产周转1.498×权益乘数1.956=37.76%；期初/期末合并权益乘数2.037/1.889。归母两点平均权益ROE38.70%，扣非同分母36.97%；不冒充披露加权ROE。高ROE由净利率约13%、周转约1.50和适中杠杆共同贡献，非金融收益驱动。分红压低权益也抬高ROE；2025报告加权ROE36.82%低于简单均值归母ROE，不能用口径差异制造更高质量。2026H1现金转化改善是正面反证，但收入增速仅4.41%需防靠成本红利撑利润。"
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.1583106413967294,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.272923086328125,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.183122468553719,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.277959940794702,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.4256378737541528,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.4453494071146245,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.44307562500000003,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.3942890374331551,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.1583106413967294,
  "channels": [
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "食品安全召回损害品牌与渠道准入；量贩渠道压价或集中采购商换供应商；扩品带来的库存、退货与产能利用率下降",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于6亿元，估值≤18倍（保守对应总市值≤108亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 43.41,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 14.64,
    "dy": 0.0323,
    "market_cap": 11729000000.0,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002847",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于6亿元，估值≤18倍（保守对应总市值≤108亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。",
    "verify": "量贩客户集中度和结算条件、扣除补助后的毛利及产品净价、同店动销和退货、扩产后FCF；分红和回购用途逐项验证。",
    "anchor": "2026-09-30行情43.41元；扣非TTM PE 15.21倍；正常化压力情景利润6—7.5亿元对应PE 15.64—19.55倍。1.4元参考DPS/股价=3.23%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。",
    "source": [
      "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002847&id=12066156",
      "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002847&id=12506474",
      "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555"
    ]
  },
  "research_file": "research/002847.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "002847",
    "name": "盐津铺子",
    "score": "★★★☆☆（3★挂疑点）",
    "verdict": "3★挂疑点：高ROE有经营效率支撑，估值接近可研究区，但弱提价权与渠道集中尚不足升4★。",
    "roe_quality_note": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率12.89%×资产周转1.498×权益乘数1.956=37.76%；期初/期末合并权益乘数2.037/1.889。归母两点平均权益ROE38.70%，扣非同分母36.97%；不冒充披露加权ROE。高ROE由净利率约13%、周转约1.50和适中杠杆共同贡献，非金融收益驱动。分红压低权益也抬高ROE；2025报告加权ROE36.82%低于简单均值归母ROE，不能用口径差异制造更高质量。2026H1现金转化改善是正面反证，但收入增速仅4.41%需防靠成本红利撑利润。",
    "as_of": "2026-10-02",
    "business_and_moat": "【事实】自制造休闲食品，通过量贩、商超及电商等渠道销售；2026H1收入增4.41%、扣非增16.76%。【判断】快速推新、柔性制造和成本管理较有价值，十年后零食需求仍在；消费者转换成本低，量贩商集中采购令提价权弱，渠道扩张红利不是品牌护城河的充分证据。",
    "management_and_capital_allocation": "2025中期分红约1.0908亿元已于2025-12-05实施，末期方案每股1元，全年方案约3.8179亿元；以自主制造和品类迭代为中心，比无关跨界更可理解。2026H1回购约1.176亿元已完成，但激励计划与注销不能混为股东现金回报。股权激励长期绑定人才亦有稀释成本；尚未完成十年投资排查。",
    "growth_and_valuation": {
      "quote": {
        "price": 43.41,
        "timestamp": "20260930161421",
        "pe_ttm_vendor": "14.64",
        "market_cap_yi": "117.29"
      },
      "quote_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555",
      "basis": "腾讯总市值/全公司归母利润；未用流通市值或复权价。",
      "reported_2025_pe": 15.671815614994959,
      "recurring_ttm_pe": 15.214537957642662,
      "recurring_ttm_np_yi": 7.709074066299999,
      "normalized_scenario": {
        "parent_np_yi_range": [
          6,
          7.5
        ],
        "pe_range": [
          15.638666666666667,
          19.548333333333336
        ],
        "status": "研究者保守压力情景，不是已验证正常化盈利预测；扣非TTM也不是周期中枢。",
        "rationale": "看渠道铺设之后的同店/单SKU动销、魔芋等新品的复购，而非靠上架数外推高增速；当前估值较其他成长股克制但壁垒仍需验证。"
      },
      "dividend": {
        "dps_cny": 1.4,
        "reference_yield_pct": 3.2250633494586505,
        "basis": "2025归属年度全年方案(含中期)，末期实施仍待单独核验",
        "ttm_actual_paid_yield_pct": null,
        "limitation": "未完整核验所有分派实施公告及同股本TTM桥接，不把参考方案股息率当已实现TTM收益率；2026中期未认证支付的方案不计入。"
      }
    },
    "buy_conditions": {
      "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于6亿元，估值≤18倍（保守对应总市值≤108亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。",
      "verify": "量贩客户集中度和结算条件、扣除补助后的毛利及产品净价、同店动销和退货、扩产后FCF；分红和回购用途逐项验证。",
      "anchor": "2026-09-30行情43.41元；扣非TTM PE 15.21倍；正常化压力情景利润6—7.5亿元对应PE 15.64—19.55倍。1.4元参考DPS/股价=3.23%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。",
      "source": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002847&id=12066156",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002847&id=12506474",
        "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555"
      ],
      "manual": true
    },
    "risks_and_premortem": [
      "食品安全召回损害品牌与渠道准入",
      "量贩渠道压价或集中采购商换供应商",
      "扩品带来的库存、退货与产能利用率下降"
    ],
    "financial_facts_cny": {
      "fy2025": {
        "revenue": 5762229731.44,
        "parent_np": 748413603.64,
        "recurring_parent_np": 714923986.83,
        "cfo": 908977875.88,
        "assets_end": 4081986689.77,
        "assets_start": 3611600652.49,
        "parent_equity_end": 2132718743.33,
        "parent_equity_start": 1734851729.87,
        "consolidated_np": 742661364.0,
        "total_equity_end": 2160636986.36,
        "total_equity_start": 1773426254.05
      },
      "dupont": {
        "consolidated_net_margin_pct": 12.888437264968374,
        "asset_turnover": 1.4979305426972218,
        "equity_multiplier": 1.9556338757427272,
        "consolidated_roe_pct": 37.75543597629617,
        "parent_margin_pct": 12.988263892994231,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.9892558896009933,
        "parent_roe_simple_pct": 38.70200213938276,
        "recurring_parent_roe_simple_pct": 36.970185380408964,
        "equity_multiplier_start": 2.0365101984038714,
        "equity_multiplier_end": 1.8892515103367156
      },
      "h1_2026": {
        "revenue": 3070218410.03,
        "parent_np": 425281605.55,
        "recurring_parent_np": 390074884.71,
        "cfo": 586819923.55,
        "prior_h1_recurring_parent_np": 334091464.91
      },
      "recurring_ttm_np": 770907406.6299999,
      "recurring_ttm_pe": 15.214537957642662,
      "cfo_to_parent_np_2025": 1.2145394892063377,
      "cfo_to_parent_np_h1": 1.3798384785325686,
      "h1_parent_dupont_not_annualized": {
        "parent_net_margin_pct": 13.851835561947674,
        "asset_turnover": 0.7403697054589337,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.9592915337973893,
        "parent_roe_simple_pct": 20.09347399296983,
        "recurring_parent_roe_simple_pct": 18.430045995275442,
        "basis": "归母净利率×营收/平均合并资产×平均合并资产/平均归母权益，代数桥接；不是标准全合并杜邦。"
      }
    },
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002847&id=12066156",
        "title": "2025年年度报告全文",
        "source_quality": "发行人公告，新浪镜像；单源",
        "sections": [
          "主要会计数据",
          "管理层讨论",
          "利润分配",
          "合并资产负债表",
          "合并利润表",
          "财务附注"
        ],
        "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/002847-2025.txt"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002847&id=12506474",
        "title": "2026年半年度报告全文",
        "source_quality": "同一发行人公告，非独立双源",
        "sections": [
          "主要会计数据",
          "非经常性损益",
          "管理层讨论",
          "财务附注"
        ],
        "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/002847-2026H1.txt"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555",
        "title": "腾讯行情原始响应",
        "source_quality": "行情单源；时间2026-09-30，不能称10月2日成交",
        "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/quotes.txt"
      }
    ],
    "limitations": [
      "财务数字来自实际读取年报及半年报，发行人单源；未完成独立双源核验。",
      "ROE拆解采用期初期末均值，与加权平均ROE不同；包含少数权益的合并与归母分开计算。",
      "九家均不因量化八年ROE门槛自动认证护城河；全市场面板有幸存者偏差。",
      "分红/回购/乱投资历史未穷尽；没有发现完整证据不等于没有风险。",
      "正常化区间和买入倍数是研究判断/门槛，不是事实、公允价格认证或投资建议。"
    ]
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json",
    "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json",
    "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
    "quote": "腾讯行情；见原始深研来源"
  },
  "research_rating": 3,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [],
  "reject_reason": "",
  "reject_reason_source": "",
  "tracking_state": "observing",
  "verification_kind": "price_line",
  "verification_reason": "已深研；数值价格线待核，不等于深研否决",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于6亿元，估值≤18倍（保守对应总市值≤108亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "当前不视为触发。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "量贩客户集中度和结算条件、扣除补助后的毛利及产品净价、同店动销和退货、扩产后FCF",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "分红和回购用途逐项验证。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}