{
  "code": "002867",
  "name": "周大生",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "珠宝首饰",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "降级观察：加盟网络有价值，但门店收缩与现金转换恶化，过去高ROE不足以认证品牌复利；不是便宜就买的烟蒂。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": 0.12515217350289715,
    "turnover": 1.0918350346286023,
    "leverage": 1.2577426196123973,
    "roe": 0.1718649039556176,
    "basis": "FY2025归母桥接（含少数权益影响）",
    "conclusion": "FY2025杜邦12.52%×1.092×1.258=17.19%，扣非16.54%；不是高金融杠杆撑出来，但加盟轻资产与分红限制权益增长也抬ROE。黄金批发/品牌收费结构变化使收入下降时净利率反升，不能把这当定价力大增。CFO/利润0.421。"
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.2553727047146402,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.19580998990918264,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.2569970384995064,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.20894693877551018,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.20877066911090744,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.18862408814589668,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.15611049504950494,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.17797860380779693,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.15611049504950494,
  "channels": [
    "value",
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "加盟商盈利下降→闭店→品牌收费减少→营销规模弱化的负循环。；高金价下自营库存占用现金，金价回落又减值，黄金租赁对冲期限错配。；天然钻石和婚庆需求变化伤害长期盈利，净资产中的库存非现金硬底。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": 5.895884437176343,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": "深研条件价；全部人工验证仍须满足",
    "condition": "正常化利润保守端8.0亿元下总股权PE≤8倍，条件价约5.90元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 10.14,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": 11007000000.0,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002867",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "正常化利润保守端8.0亿元下总股权PE≤8倍，条件价约5.90元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
    "verify": "连续两个季度加盟净关店收敛、同店克重/终端零售恢复、品牌使用费与加盟商经营现金；库存与黄金租赁匹配、钻石跌价充分；分红不借债。",
    "anchor": "2026-09-30未复权收盘10.14元，总市值110.07亿元；正常化PE11.59—13.76倍。阈值是研究判断，无历史估值分位背书。",
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/002867.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "002867",
    "name": "周大生",
    "score": "2★",
    "verdict": "降级观察：加盟网络有价值，但门店收缩与现金转换恶化，过去高ROE不足以认证品牌复利；不是便宜就买的烟蒂。",
    "roe_quality_note": "FY2025杜邦12.52%×1.092×1.258=17.19%，扣非16.54%；不是高金融杠杆撑出来，但加盟轻资产与分红限制权益增长也抬ROE。黄金批发/品牌收费结构变化使收入下降时净利率反升，不能把这当定价力大增。CFO/利润0.421。",
    "quote": {
      "price": 10.14,
      "time": "20260930161418",
      "market_cap": 11007000000.0,
      "currency": "CNY",
      "source_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002867",
      "source_count": 1,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T03:49:35.097467+00:00"
    },
    "facts_vs_opinion": "financial_facts/quote为来源事实与计算；business/management/growth/risk及估值阈值为研究判断，不是管理层预测或自动买入指令。",
    "roe_discovery": {
      "minimum": 0.1561104950495049,
      "mean": 0.2060763160016181,
      "basis": "2019—2026八月末TTM年度采样，非8个完整财年；面板未剔非经常损益，单源且有幸存者偏差"
    },
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002867&id=12251477",
        "source_count": 1,
        "type": "发行人年报新浪镜像，非独立第二源"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002867&id=12533849",
        "source_count": 1,
        "type": "发行人2026中报新浪镜像"
      }
    ],
    "financial_facts": {
      "revenue": 8815068487.36,
      "revenue_prev": 13891301596.92,
      "profit": 1103224980.77,
      "profit_prev": 1010106025.42,
      "adjusted_profit": 1061858305.83,
      "adjusted_profit_prev": 987581790.2,
      "assets": 8311518922.15,
      "assets_prev": 7835734477.46,
      "equity": 6482304533.0,
      "equity_prev": 6355976644.58,
      "cfo": 464011855.04,
      "cfo_prev": 1855895647.75,
      "capex": 109862802.86,
      "capex_prev": 195337798.11,
      "source_url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002867&id=12251477",
      "source_count": 1,
      "dupont": {
        "parent_net_margin": 0.12515217350289715,
        "asset_turnover": 1.0918350346286023,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.2577426196123973,
        "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.1718649039556176,
        "adjusted_roe": 0.1654206339839893
      },
      "cfo_to_parent_profit": 0.42059585590252063,
      "simple_fcf": 354149052.18,
      "period": "FY2025",
      "currency": "CNY",
      "H1_2026": {
        "source_url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=002867&id=12533849",
        "revenue": 3640825927.33,
        "revenue_prev": 4596709211.19,
        "profit": 449891259.87,
        "profit_prev": 593814656.47,
        "cfo": 203659231.76,
        "cfo_prev": 403225649.24
      },
      "latest_ttm_parent_profit": 959301584.1699998,
      "H1_profit_yoy": -0.2423709065309525,
      "H1_revenue_yoy": -0.20794947862550128
    },
    "dupont": {
      "parent_net_margin": 0.12515217350289715,
      "asset_turnover": 1.0918350346286023,
      "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.2577426196123973,
      "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.1718649039556176,
      "adjusted_roe": 0.1654206339839893
    },
    "business": {
      "essence": "加盟门店提供珠宝品牌、产品设计与供应链服务，黄金/镶嵌销售和品牌授权费并存；金价上涨不等于卖金克重、加盟商利润和品牌价值同步上涨。",
      "moat": "已有加盟覆盖与终端服务形成规模价值。",
      "countercase": "珠宝品牌可替代、加盟商可能转牌，天然钻石需求/培育钻石替代及高金价压销量；总部利润不能脱离加盟商赚钱能力。"
    },
    "management": {
      "assessment": "2025撤低效店并扩国家宝藏等自营/主题店，方向可能优化结构，但把轻资产加盟变为自营意味着总部承担库存与租金风险，不可只看高毛利。",
      "capital_allocation": "2025末4479店，全年净减少529店；CFO4.64亿元，简单FCF3.54亿元。年报解释自营铺货与金价抬升库存占款，现金分红须看FCF覆盖而非账面盈利。"
    },
    "growth_valuation": {
      "growth": "2026H1收入36.41亿元、归母4.50亿元较上期5.94亿元明显下滑，CFO2.04亿元亦低于4.03亿元；不是仅金价导致营收口径扰动，利润也受损。",
      "normalization": "FY2025扣非10.62亿元，但最新H1归母大幅回落，按8—9.5亿元防守情景；不采用历史13亿元以上盈利峰值，也不外推金价库存收益。",
      "normalized_profit_cny": [
        800000000.0,
        950000000.0
      ],
      "normalization_status": "分析假设，非公司指引；不等于净现金流",
      "normalized_pe_range": [
        11.586315789473684,
        13.75875
      ],
      "reported_ttm_pe_calculated": 11.473972504197832,
      "threshold_pe": 8,
      "conditional_price_cny": 5.895884437176343,
      "share_basis": "行情全股本总市值/同日报价反推每股锚；不用旧EPS或复权价格，已避免伯特利/豪迈转增口径错配。"
    },
    "buy_conditions": {
      "buy_when": "正常化利润保守端8.0亿元下总股权PE≤8倍，条件价约5.90元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
      "verify": "连续两个季度加盟净关店收敛、同店克重/终端零售恢复、品牌使用费与加盟商经营现金；库存与黄金租赁匹配、钻石跌价充分；分红不借债。",
      "anchor": "2026-09-30未复权收盘10.14元，总市值110.07亿元；正常化PE11.59—13.76倍。阈值是研究判断，无历史估值分位背书。"
    },
    "risk_death": [
      "加盟商盈利下降→闭店→品牌收费减少→营销规模弱化的负循环。",
      "高金价下自营库存占用现金，金价回落又减值，黄金租赁对冲期限错配。",
      "天然钻石和婚庆需求变化伤害长期盈利，净资产中的库存非现金硬底。"
    ],
    "worst_case": "烟蒂资产安全垫不成立：存货账面值、品牌和装修均需折价；正常利润若跌至6亿元仍可能价值陷阱。",
    "four_master_summary": {
      "巴菲特": "见business与dupont：护城河、经济回报与现金可持续性。",
      "芒格": "见management：资本配置、激励、并购与反面论据。",
      "费雪林奇": "见growth_valuation与buy_conditions：增长来源、正常化估值与验证条件。",
      "格雷厄姆烟蒂压力": "见worst_case与risk_death：本批不因高ROE认定净资产具有清算保护。"
    },
    "data_quality": {
      "financial_source_count": 1,
      "independent_double_source_verified": false,
      "status": "primary_source_grounded_with_explicit_valuation_assumptions",
      "quote_source": "Tencent独立行情仅验证价格，不是财报数字独立双源",
      "dupont_basis": "归母净利率(归母利润/合并收入) × 合并收入/平均合并总资产 × 平均合并总资产/平均归母权益；含少数权益结构影响，权益乘数不是纯有息债杠杆。用年初年末均值，不等于公司加权ROE。",
      "fcf_basis": "若有simple_fcf为合并CFO−购建长期资产现金；未扣收购/租赁全部本金、未剔增长capex、含NCI，不冒充归母可分配FCF。",
      "limits": [
        "财务为发行人单源，镜像/同发行人中报不构成独立双源。",
        "正常化盈利、买入倍数和压力情景为分析假设；未构建完整DCF、估值历史分位或收购逐笔IRR。",
        "2026中报后至研究时点全部公告未逐条覆盖，重大后续事项需执行前补查。"
      ]
    }
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json",
    "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json",
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002867",
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": 71.9844,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "渠道恶化",
    "现金转换"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "降级观察：加盟网络有价值，但门店收缩与现金转换恶化，过去高ROE不足以认证品牌复利；不是便宜就买的烟蒂。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "正常化利润保守端8.0亿元下总股权PE≤8倍，条件价约5.90元",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "连续两个季度加盟净关店收敛、同店克重/终端零售恢复、品牌使用费与加盟商经营现金",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "事件",
      "item": "库存与黄金租赁匹配、钻石跌价充分",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "分红不借债。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}