{ "code": "00700", "name": "腾讯控股", "market": "H", "industry": "数码解决方案服务", "quality_tier": "silver", "quality_conflict": false, "in_quality_pool": true, "quality_source": "用户本轮指定银标", "score": 4, "verdict": "待价格：平台质量合格，不能因一美元窗口负值否定经营质量；当前更接近合理而非足够便宜，等待经营业务安全边际。", "dupont": { "margin": 0.29908508764695396, "turnover": 0.39359672207793706, "leverage": 1.795356958217794, "roe": 0.21134746439817642, "basis": "FY2025归母桥接（含少数权益影响）", "conclusion": "FY2025杜邦29.91%×0.394×1.795=21.13%；净利率受投资收益影响，不能视作纯经营回报。已验八年最低2023年15.0611%，平均归母权益口径通过、期末权益敏感；回购/实物派息改变权益分母。一美元负值为窗口和估值等混合结果，非资本毁损定论。" }, "roe_series": [ { "year": 2018, "roe": 0.27163965878975266 }, { "year": 2019, "roe": 0.2467813428967385 }, { "year": 2020, "roe": 0.2812499450157915 }, { "year": 2021, "roe": 0.2977216852735547 }, { "year": 2022, "roe": 0.24644135917627266 }, { "year": 2023, "roe": 0.15061092221999997 }, { "year": 2024, "roe": 0.21779782609549536 }, { "year": 2025, "roe": 0.21134746439817642 } ], "roe_min": 0.15061092221999997, "channels": [ "roe_quality" ], "proxy_candidate": false, "death_risk": "社交关系链和商业入口被新范式替代，广告/支付网络优势衰减。；监管改变游戏及金融变现上限，或平台数据/安全重大事故。；AI军备竞赛持续提高维持性资本开支、FCF不能覆盖回购和股权激励；此时应下调正常化利润而非单纯等待PE下降。", "price_lines": { "watch": 353, "good": null, "fat": null, "intrinsic_value": null, "basis": "用户本轮指定（茅台1079、腾讯353）", "condition": "上市投资按最新核验市值七折、非上市不计、净现金暂不加回后，剩余股权价值/含SBC费用正常化经营利润≤12倍，且AI资本开支后现金回报没有结构恶化。以2000亿元利润和本次股数/汇率，仅为约352.87港元条件价。", "currency": "HKD", "manual_gate": true }, "current": { "price": 420.8, "date": "2026-10-02", "pe": 14.11, "dy": 0.0126, "market_cap": 3826168430000.0, "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=r_hk00700", "currency": "HKD", "source_count": 1 }, "buy_conditions": { "buy_when": "上市投资按最新核验市值七折、非上市不计、净现金暂不加回后，剩余股权价值/含SBC费用正常化经营利润≤12倍，且AI资本开支后现金回报没有结构恶化。以2000亿元利润和本次股数/汇率，仅为约352.87港元条件价。", "verify": "更新9月末股本和6月后上市持仓市价；复核投资税/NCI、经营SBC和利息；AI增量资本支出与自由现金流。条件须同时满足，当前非买入结论。", "anchor": "2026-10-02 11:31港价421.40；HKDCNY0.8543。上市股权打七折时经营代理约13.97倍；12倍是本研究安全边际阈值，不是行业事实。", "source": null }, "research_file": "research/00700.html", "research_document": { "code": "00700", "name": "腾讯控股", "score": "4★", "verdict": "待价格：平台质量合格，不能因一美元窗口负值否定经营质量；当前更接近合理而非足够便宜，等待经营业务安全边际。", "roe_quality_note": "FY2025杜邦29.91%×0.394×1.795=21.13%；净利率受投资收益影响，不能视作纯经营回报。已验八年最低2023年15.0611%，平均归母权益口径通过、期末权益敏感；回购/实物派息改变权益分母。一美元负值为窗口和估值等混合结果，非资本毁损定论。", "quote": { "price": 421.4, "time": "2026/10/02 11:31:10", "market_cap": 3831624000000.0, "currency": "HKD", "source_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=hk00700", "source_count": 1, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T03:49:35.097419+00:00" }, "facts_vs_opinion": "financial_facts/quote为来源事实与计算；business/management/growth/risk及估值阈值为研究判断，不是管理层预测或自动买入指令。", "roe_discovery": { "minimum": 0.1506109222199999, "mean": 0.2404487754832227, "basis": "2018—2025完整年度平均归母权益ROE" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0409/2026040901231.pdf", "source_count": 1, "type": "发行人年报/披露易", "pages": [ 4, 18, 22, 24, 140 ] }, { "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0825/2026082500556.pdf", "source_count": 1, "type": "发行人2026中报/披露易", "pages": [ 5, 15, 19, 21 ] } ], "fx": { "HKDCNY": 0.8543, "USDHKD": 7.8448, "timestamp": "2026-10-02 11:46 CST", "sources": [ "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=whHKDCNY", "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=whUSDHKD" ], "basis": "报价时点换算，财报原币；非历史成交汇率" }, "dupont": { "parent_net_margin": 0.29908508764695396, "asset_turnover": 0.39359672207793706, "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.795356958217794, "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.21134746439817642 }, "financial_facts": { "FY2025": { "fiscal_year": 2025, "period_end": "2025-12-31", "reporting_currency": "CNY", "reporting_scale": 1000000.0, "accounting_basis": "IFRS", "net_profit_attributable_to_parent_native": 224842000000.0, "net_profit_ifrs_native": 224842000000.0, "dividends_native": 37665000000.0, "dividend_basis": "Annual-report equity distribution recognition; see company notes", "parent_equity_native": 1154152000000.0, "total_issued_shares": 9120235999, "average_parent_equity_native": 1063850000000.0, "roe_average_equity": 0.21134746439817642, "roe_mixed_vintage_arithmetic_only": null, "roe_interpretation": "mechanical average-parent-equity return; not weighted ordinary-share ROE", "native_to_hkd_translation_rate": 1.1071744906997343, "net_profit_hkd_comparison": 248939326837.90967, "dividends_hkd_comparison": 41701727192.20549, "parent_equity_hkd_comparison": 1277847652790.0798, "evidence": { "profit": { "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0409/2026040901231.pdf", "title": "ANNUAL REPORT 2025", "fiscal_year": 2025, "pdf_page_1based": 4, "source_count": 1, "matched_token": "224,842", "excerpt": "ble to equity holders of the Company 224,822 188,243 115,216 194,073 224,842 Total comprehensive income for the year 200,390 59,564 107,182 284", "locator_method": "numeric token locator after manual annual-table extraction; not an independent second source" }, "equity": { "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0409/2026040901231.pdf", "title": "ANNUAL REPORT 2025", "fiscal_year": 2025, "pdf_page_1based": 4, "source_count": 1, "matched_token": "1,154,152", "excerpt": "utable to equity holders of the Company 806,299 721,391 808,591 973,548 1,154,152 Non-controlling interests 70,394 61,469 65,090 80,3", "locator_method": "numeric token locator after manual annual-table extraction; not an independent second source" }, "dividends": { "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0409/2026040901231.pdf", "title": "ANNUAL REPORT 2025", "fiscal_year": 2025, "pdf_page_1based": 136, "source_count": 1, "matched_token": "37,665", "excerpt": " – – – – – (37,665) (37,665) (2,324) (39,989) Non-controlling interests arising from business ", "locator_method": "numeric token locator after manual annual-table extraction; not an independent second source" }, "shares": { "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0409/2026040901231.pdf", "title": "ANNUAL REPORT 2025", "fiscal_year": 2025, "pdf_page_1based": 71, "source_count": 1, "matched_token": "9,120,235,999", "excerpt": " above under “Share Award Scheme”. 7. As at 31 December 2025, the total number of issued Shares was 9,120,235,999. * Interests of beneficial owner + Interests of spouse or child under 18 as beneficial owner ", "locator_method": "numeric token locator after manual annual-table extraction; not an independent second source" } } } }, "business": { "essence": "微信关系链、支付与小程序基础设施提供分发；游戏内容、广告和商业服务实现货币化。核心是用户与商户的双边网络和跨场景使用频次，不是拥有投资股票本身。", "moat": "社交迁移成本、支付/开发者网络、游戏研发发行规模；2026H1微信及WeChat月活14.39亿（中报p5附近）。", "countercase": "时长可被短视频与AI入口抢走；游戏并非永恒IP，内容成本和监管仍可压缩利润；AI新增资本开支可能吞掉平台轻资产优势。" }, "management": { "positive": "现金回购与分红、京东/美团实物分派释放非核心资产；2025现金回购733.12亿元、归母股东现金分红375.35亿元见既有净化桥与年报现金流。", "negative": "必须看扣股权薪酬后的净回购；投资回报不应给经营PE。2026H1资本开支847.20亿元，净现金由2025末1071.45亿元降至581.91亿元，不能将旧现金全额加回。", "verification": "比较AI投入后多年经营现金流、云业务回报、回购注销与SBC稀释；不将股价从高点回落等同管理层经营失败。" }, "growth_valuation": { "growth": "2026H1收入4012.43亿元、归母IFRS1141.15亿元、non-IFRS1363.20亿元，收入及non-IFRS盈利同比约10%；广告效率/游戏长青化与云AI是增量，但用正常化盈利而非永久两位数增长估值。", "investment_split": { "unit": "CNY billion", "market_cap": 3273.3563832, "listed_investments_fair_value": 487.2, "holdings_date": "2026-06-30", "listed_previous_fy": 672.7, "net_cash": 58.191, "unlisted_book_value_not_market_value": 387.9, "residual_after_listed": 2786.1563832, "residual_after_listed_and_net_cash": 2727.9653832000004, "ttm_nonifrs_parent_profit": 271.56499999999994, "ttm_nonifrs_associate_profit": 32.951, "ttm_portfolio_dividend": 1.709, "ttm_parent_sbc_addback": 30.755999999999997, "ttm_associate_sbc_addback": 3.8189999999999995, "earnings_proxy_sbc_added_back": 236.90499999999994, "earnings_proxy_sbc_expensed": 209.96799999999996, "listed_only_multiple_sbc_added_back": 11.760648290242928, "listed_only_multiple_sbc_expensed": 13.269433357463997, "listed_and_cash_multiple_sbc_expensed": 12.992291126266863, "30pct_listed_haircut_multiple_sbc_expensed": 13.965539430770406, "normalized_operating_earnings_assumption": [ 200, 220 ], "normalized_listed_only_multiple_range": [ 12.664347196363638, 13.930781916 ], "normalized_listed_cash_multiple_range": [ 12.399842650909093, 13.639826916000002 ], "buy_price_scenario_hkd": 352.871524142083 }, "direct_answer": "421.40港元时总市值约3.273万亿元人民币；扣2026-06-30上市股权公允市值4872亿元后，剩余股权价值约2.786万亿元。以含SBC费用的TTM经营盈利代理2099.68亿元算约13.27倍；再扣净现金581.91亿元约12.99倍。正常化2000—2200亿元区间对应仅扣上市投资12.66—13.93倍。", "formula": "TTM=FY2025+2026H1−2025H1。经营盈利代理=non-IFRS归母2715.65−non-IFRS联营/合营329.51−投资股息17.09−(归母SBC307.56−联营SBC38.19)=2099.68亿元。联营SBC先从总SBC中剔除避免二次扣减。", "limitations": [ "上市投资4872亿元是6月末而非10月2日逐笔盯市；未完整更新最新持仓、税负和受限份额，故非今日可兑现NAV。旧2025末6727亿元不可冒充最新数。", "归母non-IFRS减合并口径联营收益和股息，税/NCI及SBC分摊尚未逐项桥接；2099.68亿元为偏保守研究代理，不是审计纯经营利润。利息及小额其他收益仍可能残留。", "分母剔除了上市和非上市投资经营收益，而分子只扣上市投资、未扣非上市账面3879亿元；这相当于非上市按零另计、经营估值承担该残值，不能宣称完整精确SOTP。", "净现金版本尚未将相关税后利息从分母精确剔除，不称EV/EBIT或纯无杠杆PE；净现金亦未核定全部可分配。", "SBC全加回的11.76倍仅敏感性，不能当免费股权激励。" ] }, "buy_conditions": { "buy_when": "上市投资按最新核验市值七折、非上市不计、净现金暂不加回后，剩余股权价值/含SBC费用正常化经营利润≤12倍，且AI资本开支后现金回报没有结构恶化。以2000亿元利润和本次股数/汇率，仅为约352.87港元条件价。", "verify": "更新9月末股本和6月后上市持仓市价；复核投资税/NCI、经营SBC和利息；AI增量资本支出与自由现金流。条件须同时满足，当前非买入结论。", "anchor": "2026-10-02 11:31港价421.40；HKDCNY0.8543。上市股权打七折时经营代理约13.97倍；12倍是本研究安全边际阈值，不是行业事实。" }, "risk_death": [ "社交关系链和商业入口被新范式替代，广告/支付网络优势衰减。", "监管改变游戏及金融变现上限，或平台数据/安全重大事故。", "AI军备竞赛持续提高维持性资本开支、FCF不能覆盖回购和股权激励；此时应下调正常化利润而非单纯等待PE下降。" ], "worst_case": "非上市投资估零、上市投资七折、经营利润跌至1600亿元的压力测试，不把投资净值视作股价硬底。", "evidence_links": [ "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-01-tencent-purified.json" ], "four_master_summary": { "巴菲特": "见business与dupont：护城河、经济回报与现金可持续性。", "芒格": "见management：资本配置、激励、并购与反面论据。", "费雪林奇": "见growth_valuation与buy_conditions：增长来源、正常化估值与验证条件。", "格雷厄姆烟蒂压力": "见worst_case与risk_death：本批不因高ROE认定净资产具有清算保护。" }, "data_quality": { "financial_source_count": 1, "independent_double_source_verified": false, "status": "primary_source_grounded_with_explicit_valuation_assumptions", "quote_source": "Tencent独立行情仅验证价格，不是财报数字独立双源", "dupont_basis": "归母净利率(归母利润/合并收入) × 合并收入/平均合并总资产 × 平均合并总资产/平均归母权益；含少数权益结构影响，权益乘数不是纯有息债杠杆。用年初年末均值，不等于公司加权ROE。", "fcf_basis": "若有simple_fcf为合并CFO−购建长期资产现金；未扣收购/租赁全部本金、未剔增长capex、含NCI，不冒充归母可分配FCF。", "limits": [ "财务为发行人单源，镜像/同发行人中报不构成独立双源。", "正常化盈利、买入倍数和压力情景为分析假设；未构建完整DCF、估值历史分位或收购逐笔IRR。", "2026中报后至研究时点全部公告未逐条覆盖，重大后续事项需执行前补查。" ] } }, "outside_watch": true, "triggers": [], "status": "watch", "provenance": { "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json", "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json", "quality": "用户本轮指定银标", "quote": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=hk00700" }, "research_rating": 4, "data_quality": [ "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证", "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入" ], "distance_pct": 19.2068, "quote_fresh": true, "triggered": false, "roe_discovery": true, "reject_reason_tags": [], "reject_reason": "", "reject_reason_source": "", "tracking_state": "tracking", "verification_kind": "", "verification_reason": "", "tracking_kind": "价格与基本面", "tracking_checklist": [ { "type": "比率", "item": "上市投资按最新核验市值七折、非上市不计、净现金暂不加回后，剩余股权价值/含SBC费用正常化经营利润≤12倍，且AI资本开支后现金回报没有结构恶化。以2000亿元利润和本次股数/汇率，仅为约352.87港元条件价。", "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "人工", "item": "更新9月末股本和6月后上市持仓市价", "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "人工", "item": "复核投资税/NCI、经营SBC和利息", "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "人工", "item": "AI增量资本支出与自由现金流。条件须同时满足，当前非买入结论。", "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" } ], "monthly_review": { "month": "2026-10", "status": "本期未复核", "core_changes": "本期未复核", "reviewed_on": null, "event_count": null, "events": {}, "sources": [], "decision": null, "observations": {}, "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json" } }