{
  "code": "01308",
  "name": "海丰国际",
  "market": "H",
  "industry": "航运及港口",
  "quality_tier": "bronze",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": true,
  "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
  "score": 3,
  "verdict": "周期观察，待低运价和低价：亚洲网络优于普通船东，但不能按50%—106% ROE给永续复利估值。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": 0.35844476289604404,
    "turnover": 1.0221178693947535,
    "leverage": 1.3671824663603107,
    "roe": 0.5008984646842144,
    "basis": "FY2025归母桥接（含少数权益影响）",
    "conclusion": "FY2025杜邦35.84%×1.022×1.367=50.09%。ROE2018年19.75%→2022年106.48%→2023年26.14%，2025又50.09%；主要是运价/净利率与船舶周转，不是高金融杠杆。高分红使权益分母保持较小、放大ROE，平均48.77%不宜直接正常化。"
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.32042574713062655
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.21489736356864614
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "roe": 0.1974596985828897
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.5008984646842144
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.4762117564900393
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.26144308249095466
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 1.0647886892025058
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.8657026685538614
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.1974596985828897,
  "channels": [
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": true,
  "death_risk": "供给集中交付叠加运价下跌，利润与船价同时坍塌。；贸易壁垒削弱区域箱量，燃油/环保成本无法转嫁。；景气顶部高价造船和高分红同时进行，衰退期出现现金缺口。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": "正常化利润保守端估值≤10倍并已覆盖船舶承诺、股息不是借债支付；本轮0.55—0.8十亿美元利润对应条件价15.91—23.15港元，安全档看下沿而非上沿。",
    "currency": "HKD",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 47.68,
    "date": "2026-10-02",
    "pe": 12.99,
    "dy": 0.067,
    "market_cap": 129285670000.0,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=r_hk01308",
    "currency": "HKD",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "正常化利润保守端估值≤10倍并已覆盖船舶承诺、股息不是借债支付；本轮0.55—0.8十亿美元利润对应条件价15.91—23.15港元，安全档看下沿而非上沿。",
    "verify": "箱量/每箱收入/燃油与船成本完整桥；订单交付净增量；船舶折旧和维护/增长capex分拆；净现金扣租赁与造船承诺。",
    "anchor": "港价47.74，USDHKD7.8448；最新市值129.448十亿港元，正常化PE约20.6—30.0倍；10倍阈值是判断。",
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/01308.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "01308",
    "name": "海丰国际",
    "score": "3★",
    "verdict": "周期观察，待低运价和低价：亚洲网络优于普通船东，但不能按50%—106% ROE给永续复利估值。",
    "roe_quality_note": "FY2025杜邦35.84%×1.022×1.367=50.09%。ROE2018年19.75%→2022年106.48%→2023年26.14%，2025又50.09%；主要是运价/净利率与船舶周转，不是高金融杠杆。高分红使权益分母保持较小、放大ROE，平均48.77%不宜直接正常化。",
    "quote": {
      "price": 47.74,
      "time": "2026/10/02 11:30:45",
      "market_cap": 129448360000.0,
      "currency": "HKD",
      "source_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=hk01308",
      "source_count": 1,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T03:49:35.097438+00:00"
    },
    "facts_vs_opinion": "financial_facts/quote为来源事实与计算；business/management/growth/risk及估值阈值为研究判断，不是管理层预测或自动买入指令。",
    "roe_discovery": {
      "minimum": 0.1974596985828897,
      "mean": 0.4877284338379672,
      "basis": "2018—2025完整年度平均归母权益ROE"
    },
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0324/2026032400390.pdf",
        "source_count": 1,
        "type": "发行人年报/披露易"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0831/2026083100610.pdf",
        "source_count": 1,
        "type": "发行人2026中报/披露易"
      }
    ],
    "fx": {
      "HKDCNY": 0.8543,
      "USDHKD": 7.8448,
      "timestamp": "2026-10-02 11:46 CST",
      "sources": [
        "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=whHKDCNY",
        "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=whUSDHKD"
      ],
      "basis": "报价时点换算，财报原币；非历史成交汇率"
    },
    "dupont": {
      "parent_net_margin": 0.35844476289604404,
      "asset_turnover": 1.0221178693947535,
      "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.3671824663603107,
      "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.5008984646842144
    },
    "financial_facts": {
      "FY2025": {
        "fiscal_year": 2025,
        "period_end": "2025-12-31",
        "reporting_currency": "USD",
        "reporting_scale": 1000.0,
        "accounting_basis": "HKFRS（非non-IFRS；不冒充独立IFRS重编）",
        "net_profit_attributable_to_parent_native": 1222887000.0,
        "net_profit_ifrs_native": null,
        "dividends_native": 937716000.0,
        "dividend_basis": "cash paid in fiscal year, not attributable-fiscal-year dividend",
        "parent_equity_native": 2478538000.0,
        "total_issued_shares": 2699988016,
        "average_parent_equity_native": 2441387000.0,
        "roe_average_equity": 0.5008984646842144,
        "roe_mixed_vintage_arithmetic_only": null,
        "roe_interpretation": "mechanical average-parent-equity return; not weighted ordinary-share ROE",
        "native_to_hkd_translation_rate": 7.7809,
        "net_profit_hkd_comparison": 9515161458.3,
        "dividends_hkd_comparison": 7296274424.4,
        "parent_equity_hkd_comparison": 19285256324.2,
        "evidence": {
          "profit": {
            "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0324/2026032400390.pdf",
            "title": "ANNUAL REPORT 2025",
            "fiscal_year": 2025,
            "pdf_page_1based": 148,
            "source_count": 1,
            "matched_token": "1,222,887",
            "excerpt": " 1,167,179 Profit attributable to: Shareholders of the Company 1,222,887 1,028,325 531,393 1,944,425 1,162,714 Non-controlling interests ",
            "locator_method": "numeric token locator after manual annual-table extraction; not an independent second source"
          },
          "equity": {
            "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0324/2026032400390.pdf",
            "title": "ANNUAL REPORT 2025",
            "fiscal_year": 2025,
            "pdf_page_1based": 148,
            "source_count": 1,
            "matched_token": "2,478,538",
            "excerpt": " 1,515,684 Represented by: Equity attributable to shareholders of the Company 2,478,538 2,404,236 1,914,536 2,150,540 1,501,687 Non-controlling interests ",
            "locator_method": "numeric token locator after manual annual-table extraction; not an independent second source"
          },
          "dividends": {
            "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0324/2026032400390.pdf",
            "title": "ANNUAL REPORT 2025",
            "fiscal_year": 2025,
            "pdf_page_1based": 69,
            "source_count": 1,
            "matched_token": "937,716",
            "excerpt": "6) Payment of dividends 34(b) (937,716) (557,550) Principal portion of lease payments ",
            "locator_method": "numeric token locator after manual annual-table extraction; not an independent second source"
          },
          "shares": {
            "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0324/2026032400390.pdf",
            "title": "ANNUAL REPORT 2025",
            "fiscal_year": 2025,
            "pdf_page_1based": 23,
            "source_count": 1,
            "matched_token": "2,699,988,016",
            "excerpt": " 14 April 2026 (Tuesday). SHARE CAPITAL As of 31 December 2025, the Company had 2,699,988,016 shares in issue and the Company did not hold any treasury shares. The changes in the share capital of the G",
            "locator_method": "numeric token locator after manual annual-table extraction; not an independent second source"
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "business": {
      "essence": "亚洲区域集装箱航线网络，加堆场、仓储与陆运，提高航次密度和客户便利；赚箱量×单位净收益，不是垄断运价。",
      "moat": "区域航线密度、短航程周转、客户服务与自有船成本控制。",
      "countercase": "船舶可复制、干线船转入亚洲与新增订单均能压运价；区域聚焦减少远洋波动但不消灭周期。"
    },
    "management": {
      "positive": "盈利期现金分派避免无节制囤积资本，2025现金股利9.37716亿美元（支付年口径）。",
      "negative": "2026H1船舶已签未入账资本承诺7.63264亿美元，相比现金及定存9.324亿美元不可忽略；现金不是全额冗余。",
      "verification": "逐艘新船交付价格/时间、替换还是净增运力、旧船退出、租赁负债和维持性capex。不要把景气现金分红外推成永续票息。"
    },
    "growth_valuation": {
      "facts": "2025归母12.22887亿美元、收入34.11647亿美元；2026H1归母6.76541亿美元，箱量197.1942万TEU同比+7.8%，平均运价807.2美元/TEU较上年776.4上升，仍不能叫周期底。",
      "normalization": "正常化用箱量/航线与成本逐项，而非8年ROE算术平均：以2023较低运价期5.31393亿美元利润作保守参照，允许规模扩张但削去景气超额，假设全年5.5—8亿美元。此为情景区间而非预测，仍需2018—2020同口径单位成本复核。",
      "normalized_profit_usd": [
        550000000,
        800000000
      ],
      "normalized_pe_range": [
        20.626459565572098,
        30.00212300446851
      ],
      "stress": "以2025箱量384.7539万TEU不变、运价每箱下降100美元、税后传导95%作示意，利润敏感度约3.655亿美元；没有计入燃油、箱量、租船费同步变化，不是预测。",
      "stress_profit_change_usd": 365516205.0,
      "buy_price_at_10x_range_hkd": [
        15.912207277094897,
        23.145028766683488
      ],
      "normal_roe_on_2026H1_equity_sensitivity": [
        0.1942141829321045,
        0.282493356992152
      ]
    },
    "buy_conditions": {
      "buy_when": "正常化利润保守端估值≤10倍并已覆盖船舶承诺、股息不是借债支付；本轮0.55—0.8十亿美元利润对应条件价15.91—23.15港元，安全档看下沿而非上沿。",
      "verify": "箱量/每箱收入/燃油与船成本完整桥；订单交付净增量；船舶折旧和维护/增长capex分拆；净现金扣租赁与造船承诺。",
      "anchor": "港价47.74，USDHKD7.8448；最新市值129.448十亿港元，正常化PE约20.6—30.0倍；10倍阈值是判断。"
    },
    "risk_death": [
      "供给集中交付叠加运价下跌，利润与船价同时坍塌。",
      "贸易壁垒削弱区域箱量，燃油/环保成本无法转嫁。",
      "景气顶部高价造船和高分红同时进行，衰退期出现现金缺口。"
    ],
    "worst_case": "船资产清算价值随周期下跌，PB不是底；若正常化利润只有3.5亿美元，需重新评估分红/资本支出而非因低动态PE加仓。",
    "dupont_history": {
      "FY2022": {
        "parent_net_margin": 0.47275620569639104,
        "asset_turnover": 1.4184366711792966,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.5878747405350215,
        "roe_average_parent_equity": 1.0647886892025058
      },
      "FY2023": {
        "parent_net_margin": 0.2187739686013638,
        "asset_turnover": 0.847017925245309,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.4108762050205212,
        "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.26144308249095466
      },
      "FY2025": {
        "parent_net_margin": 0.35844476289604404,
        "asset_turnover": 1.0221178693947535,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.3671824663603107,
        "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.5008984646842144
      }
    },
    "four_master_summary": {
      "巴菲特": "见business与dupont：护城河、经济回报与现金可持续性。",
      "芒格": "见management：资本配置、激励、并购与反面论据。",
      "费雪林奇": "见growth_valuation与buy_conditions：增长来源、正常化估值与验证条件。",
      "格雷厄姆烟蒂压力": "见worst_case与risk_death：本批不因高ROE认定净资产具有清算保护。"
    },
    "data_quality": {
      "financial_source_count": 1,
      "independent_double_source_verified": false,
      "status": "primary_source_grounded_with_explicit_valuation_assumptions",
      "quote_source": "Tencent独立行情仅验证价格，不是财报数字独立双源",
      "dupont_basis": "归母净利率(归母利润/合并收入) × 合并收入/平均合并总资产 × 平均合并总资产/平均归母权益；含少数权益结构影响，权益乘数不是纯有息债杠杆。用年初年末均值，不等于公司加权ROE。",
      "fcf_basis": "若有simple_fcf为合并CFO−购建长期资产现金；未扣收购/租赁全部本金、未剔增长capex、含NCI，不冒充归母可分配FCF。",
      "limits": [
        "财务为发行人单源，镜像/同发行人中报不构成独立双源。",
        "正常化盈利、买入倍数和压力情景为分析假设；未构建完整DCF、估值历史分位或收购逐笔IRR。",
        "2026中报后至研究时点全部公告未逐条覆盖，重大后续事项需执行前补查。"
      ]
    }
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json",
    "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json",
    "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
    "quote": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=hk01308"
  },
  "research_rating": 3,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [],
  "reject_reason": "",
  "reject_reason_source": "",
  "tracking_state": "observing",
  "verification_kind": "price_line",
  "verification_reason": "已深研；数值价格线待核，不等于深研否决",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "正常化利润保守端估值≤10倍并已覆盖船舶承诺、股息不是借债支付",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "本轮0.55—0.8十亿美元利润对应条件价15.91—23.15港元，安全档看下沿而非上沿。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "箱量/每箱收入/燃油与船成本完整桥",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "事件",
      "item": "订单交付净增量",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "船舶折旧和维护/增长capex分拆",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "净现金扣租赁与造船承诺。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}