{
  "code": "02020",
  "name": "安踏体育",
  "market": "H",
  "industry": "服装",
  "quality_tier": "bronze",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": true,
  "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
  "score": 3,
  "verdict": "品牌质量候选、资本配置折价观察：多品牌能力有证据，Amer稀释收益与全球收购不能当主业复利；等待更大安全边际。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": 0.16938630499008964,
    "turnover": 0.6772107551390824,
    "leverage": 1.8579573526989828,
    "roe": 0.2131267106367294,
    "basis": "FY2025归母桥接（含少数权益影响）",
    "conclusion": "FY2025杜邦16.94%×0.677×1.858=21.31%；剔联营和一次收益的归母123.85亿元/平均归母权益约19.43%，仍有质量但低于2024含Amer稀释收益的27.56%。DTC提高毛利也增加库存/租赁资产；不能只看60%以上毛利。"
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.23413085383830368
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.29805627596977047
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "roe": 0.2783298850184852
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.2131267106367294
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.27557448161923864
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.2384346610761705
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.23972332327906132
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.291672963578661
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.2131267106367294,
  "channels": [
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": true,
  "death_risk": "新品牌翻身需要持续投入，收购亏损/库存减值消耗成熟品牌现金。；海外少数股权难施加控制，汇率/可转债/商誉与管理半径成为负担。；FILA或专业户外品牌由潮流转冷，折扣清库存破坏品牌定价。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": "并表正常化120亿元保守档≤12倍，约60.27港元；或补齐Amer/现金/收购负债的同日SOTP后存在至少25%安全边际，且新收购亏损可控。",
    "currency": "HKD",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 73.95,
    "date": "2026-10-02",
    "pe": 11.2,
    "dy": 0.035,
    "market_cap": 206812510000.00003,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=r_hk02020",
    "currency": "HKD",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "并表正常化120亿元保守档≤12倍，约60.27港元；或补齐Amer/现金/收购负债的同日SOTP后存在至少25%安全边际，且新收购亏损可控。",
    "verify": "Amer联营利润与分派现金、稀释收益剔除；PUMA交割和资金来源、Jack Wolfskin亏损收窄；FILA全价售罄、库存和租赁现金支出。",
    "anchor": "港价73.25，HKDCNY0.8543，全部股权市值约175.007十亿元人民币；以120—140亿元核心利润算12.50—14.58倍，不额外加Amer账面价值。",
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/02020.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "02020",
    "name": "安踏体育",
    "score": "3★",
    "verdict": "品牌质量候选、资本配置折价观察：多品牌能力有证据，Amer稀释收益与全球收购不能当主业复利；等待更大安全边际。",
    "roe_quality_note": "FY2025杜邦16.94%×0.677×1.858=21.31%；剔联营和一次收益的归母123.85亿元/平均归母权益约19.43%，仍有质量但低于2024含Amer稀释收益的27.56%。DTC提高毛利也增加库存/租赁资产；不能只看60%以上毛利。",
    "quote": {
      "price": 73.25,
      "time": "2026/10/02 11:30:36",
      "market_cap": 204854850000.0,
      "currency": "HKD",
      "source_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=hk02020",
      "source_count": 1,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T03:49:35.097443+00:00"
    },
    "facts_vs_opinion": "financial_facts/quote为来源事实与计算；business/management/growth/risk及估值阈值为研究判断，不是管理层预测或自动买入指令。",
    "roe_discovery": {
      "minimum": 0.2131267106367294,
      "mean": 0.2586311443770525,
      "basis": "2018—2025完整年度平均归母权益ROE"
    },
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0409/2026040900840.pdf",
        "source_count": 1,
        "type": "发行人年报/披露易"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0907/2026090700322.pdf",
        "source_count": 1,
        "type": "发行人2026中报/披露易"
      }
    ],
    "fx": {
      "HKDCNY": 0.8543,
      "USDHKD": 7.8448,
      "timestamp": "2026-10-02 11:46 CST",
      "sources": [
        "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=whHKDCNY",
        "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=whUSDHKD"
      ],
      "basis": "报价时点换算，财报原币；非历史成交汇率"
    },
    "dupont": {
      "parent_net_margin": 0.16938630499008964,
      "asset_turnover": 0.6772107551390824,
      "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.8579573526989828,
      "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.2131267106367294,
      "core_ex_associate_roe_proxy": 0.1942577503117378
    },
    "financial_facts": {
      "FY2025": {
        "fiscal_year": 2025,
        "period_end": "2025-12-31",
        "reporting_currency": "CNY",
        "reporting_scale": 1000000.0,
        "accounting_basis": "IFRS and HKFRS",
        "net_profit_attributable_to_parent_native": 13588000000.0,
        "net_profit_ifrs_native": 13588000000.0,
        "dividends_native": 6585000000.0,
        "dividend_basis": "cash paid in fiscal year, not attributable-fiscal-year dividend",
        "parent_equity_native": 65782000000.0,
        "total_issued_shares": 2796653300,
        "average_parent_equity_native": 63755500000.0,
        "roe_average_equity": 0.2131267106367294,
        "roe_mixed_vintage_arithmetic_only": null,
        "roe_interpretation": "mechanical average-parent-equity return; not weighted ordinary-share ROE",
        "native_to_hkd_translation_rate": 1.1071744906997343,
        "net_profit_hkd_comparison": 15044286979.627989,
        "dividends_hkd_comparison": 7290744021.2577505,
        "parent_equity_hkd_comparison": 72832152347.20992,
        "evidence": {
          "profit": {
            "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0409/2026040900840.pdf",
            "title": "Annual Report 2025",
            "fiscal_year": 2025,
            "pdf_page_1based": 13,
            "source_count": 1,
            "matched_token": "13,588",
            "excerpt": "595 15,367 11,230 10,989 Profit attributable to equity shareholders 13,588 15,596 10,236 7,590 7,720 Non-current assets ",
            "locator_method": "numeric token locator after manual annual-table extraction; not an independent second source"
          },
          "equity": {
            "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0409/2026040900840.pdf",
            "title": "Annual Report 2025",
            "fiscal_year": 2025,
            "pdf_page_1based": 13,
            "source_count": 1,
            "matched_token": "65,782",
            "excerpt": " 5,010 4,550 3,439 2,740 Shareholders’ equity 65,782 61,729 51,460 34,400 28,923 ",
            "locator_method": "numeric token locator after manual annual-table extraction; not an independent second source"
          },
          "dividends": {
            "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0409/2026040900840.pdf",
            "title": "Annual Report 2025",
            "fiscal_year": 2025,
            "pdf_page_1based": 49,
            "source_count": 1,
            "matched_token": "6,585",
            "excerpt": "s strongyear 2025, together with payment of amounting to RMB6,585 million; cash generating capability.interim dividend of HK137 cent",
            "locator_method": "numeric token locator after manual annual-table extraction; not an independent second source"
          },
          "shares": {
            "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0409/2026040900840.pdf",
            "title": "Annual Report 2025",
            "fiscal_year": 2025,
            "pdf_page_1based": 54,
            "source_count": 1,
            "matched_token": "2,796,653,300",
            "excerpt": "s outstanding (excluding treasury shares) Important Dates 2,796,653,300 shares (As at 31 December 2025) Annual results announcem",
            "locator_method": "numeric token locator after manual annual-table extraction; not an independent second source"
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "business": {
      "essence": "以安踏覆盖大众运动、FILA覆盖运动时尚、迪桑特/可隆等覆盖高端专业；本质为品牌定位×商品开发×零售运营，不是买商标就获得增长。",
      "moat": "渠道运营、供应链及分层品牌管理可重复利用；2025FILA经营利润74.18亿元、其他品牌47.36亿元验证组合盈利。",
      "countercase": "中国经营经验未必可迁移全球；时尚偏好变化快，多品牌可能互相蚕食且需要不断营销。"
    },
    "management": {
      "record": [
        {
          "case": "FILA/专业品牌",
          "assessment": "已形成经营利润贡献，说明管理层不仅会并购，也会经营；但2025安踏品牌收入仅+3.7%、FILA+6.9%，不能把小品牌高增长外推至全部。"
        },
        {
          "case": "Amer",
          "facts": "2025末权益39.37%、账面投资162.75亿元；2024上市/配售稀释收益15.79+20.90亿元为非现金；2026年3月配售后约37.77%，再有稀释收益。",
          "assessment": "品牌平台潜力真实，但联营权益法盈利≠可自由调用现金；美股市值上涨也不等于安踏已兑现资本回报。"
        },
        {
          "case": "JACK WOLFSKIN",
          "facts": "2025-05-31完成，基础价格2.90亿美元；并入七个月收入11.46亿元、亏损3.02亿元，2025年报p184。",
          "assessment": "反例：收购整合尚未证明成功，不能预先给全球化溢价。少数股东引入和控制权变化须核验。"
        },
        {
          "case": "PUMA",
          "facts": "拟收29.06%，总对价15.055166亿欧元；2026中报仍称预计年内完成，并非已完成。",
          "assessment": "巨大现金使用与少数股权治理风险，不能把净现金全部分配给股东的假设和收购收益同时计入。"
        },
        {
          "case": "融资",
          "facts": "2023配售净募104.97亿元来自外部股东，2024发行15亿欧元零息可转债。",
          "assessment": "外部融资不算留存盈利复利；零息仍有稀释或到期偿债成本。"
        }
      ],
      "verification": "将各收购投入、后续增资、收到股息/减持款、经营亏损与当前持股市值做IRR；目前尚无完整收购现金IRR，资本配置不给满分。"
    },
    "growth_valuation": {
      "facts": "2026H1收入435.07亿元，归母94.87亿元，但剔联营/一次收益仅72.30亿元，同比9.6%，不是表面归母34.9%；库存周转130天较同期136天改善。",
      "normalized_basis": "以持续经营并表品牌归母利润为锚，不用Amer非现金稀释收益；FY2025剔联营123.85亿元，滚动至2026H1代理130.18亿元。保守正常化120—140亿元；全部股权市值除该利润，Amer/冗余现金不另加值，避免重复估值。",
      "normalized_profit_cny": [
        12000000000,
        14000000000
      ],
      "core_ttm_ex_associate_profit_cny": 13018000000.0,
      "normalized_pe_range": [
        12.500535596785713,
        14.58395819625
      ],
      "caveat": "Jack Wolfskin购买价分摊中报重列，未完成全年重列桥，TTM为代理；PUMA若完成要扣支付并重新评估，不能机械照搬本锚。",
      "buy_price_hkd": 60.2717032078451
    },
    "buy_conditions": {
      "buy_when": "并表正常化120亿元保守档≤12倍，约60.27港元；或补齐Amer/现金/收购负债的同日SOTP后存在至少25%安全边际，且新收购亏损可控。",
      "verify": "Amer联营利润与分派现金、稀释收益剔除；PUMA交割和资金来源、Jack Wolfskin亏损收窄；FILA全价售罄、库存和租赁现金支出。",
      "anchor": "港价73.25，HKDCNY0.8543，全部股权市值约175.007十亿元人民币；以120—140亿元核心利润算12.50—14.58倍，不额外加Amer账面价值。"
    },
    "risk_death": [
      "新品牌翻身需要持续投入，收购亏损/库存减值消耗成熟品牌现金。",
      "海外少数股权难施加控制，汇率/可转债/商誉与管理半径成为负担。",
      "FILA或专业户外品牌由潮流转冷，折扣清库存破坏品牌定价。"
    ],
    "worst_case": "不给Amer与PUMA投资溢价，并表核心利润跌到90亿元且再需资本投入时，以现有估值已无显著保护；现金需先覆盖收购承诺。",
    "four_master_summary": {
      "巴菲特": "见business与dupont：护城河、经济回报与现金可持续性。",
      "芒格": "见management：资本配置、激励、并购与反面论据。",
      "费雪林奇": "见growth_valuation与buy_conditions：增长来源、正常化估值与验证条件。",
      "格雷厄姆烟蒂压力": "见worst_case与risk_death：本批不因高ROE认定净资产具有清算保护。"
    },
    "data_quality": {
      "financial_source_count": 1,
      "independent_double_source_verified": false,
      "status": "primary_source_grounded_with_explicit_valuation_assumptions",
      "quote_source": "Tencent独立行情仅验证价格，不是财报数字独立双源",
      "dupont_basis": "归母净利率(归母利润/合并收入) × 合并收入/平均合并总资产 × 平均合并总资产/平均归母权益；含少数权益结构影响，权益乘数不是纯有息债杠杆。用年初年末均值，不等于公司加权ROE。",
      "fcf_basis": "若有simple_fcf为合并CFO−购建长期资产现金；未扣收购/租赁全部本金、未剔增长capex、含NCI，不冒充归母可分配FCF。",
      "limits": [
        "财务为发行人单源，镜像/同发行人中报不构成独立双源。",
        "正常化盈利、买入倍数和压力情景为分析假设；未构建完整DCF、估值历史分位或收购逐笔IRR。",
        "2026中报后至研究时点全部公告未逐条覆盖，重大后续事项需执行前补查。"
      ]
    }
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json",
    "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json",
    "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
    "quote": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=hk02020"
  },
  "research_rating": 3,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [],
  "reject_reason": "",
  "reject_reason_source": "",
  "tracking_state": "observing",
  "verification_kind": "price_line",
  "verification_reason": "已深研；数值价格线待核，不等于深研否决",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "并表正常化120亿元保守档≤12倍，约60.27港元",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "或补齐Amer/现金/收购负债的同日SOTP后存在至少25%安全边际，且新收购亏损可控。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "Amer联营利润与分派现金、稀释收益剔除",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "PUMA交割和资金来源、Jack Wolfskin亏损收窄",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "事件",
      "item": "FILA全价售罄、库存和租赁现金支出。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}