{ "code": "300124", "name": "汇川技术", "market": "A", "industry": "工控自动化", "quality_tier": "bronze", "quality_conflict": false, "in_quality_pool": true, "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）", "score": 3, "verdict": "3★挂疑点：认可工控平台能力，但汽车扩张尚未证明相称的每股现金回报。", "dupont": { "margin": 0.11468156045853477, "turnover": 0.7020579754241648, "leverage": 1.9598153288555507, "roe": 0.15779081569475836, "basis": "FY2025合并简单平均权益杜邦；非加权归母ROE", "conclusion": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率11.47%×资产周转0.702×权益乘数1.960=15.78%；期初/期末合并权益乘数2.011/1.920。归母两点平均权益ROE15.94%，扣非同分母15.63%；不冒充披露加权ROE。2025合并杠杆不足2倍，归母均值ROE约16%，不是杠杆型高ROE；但净利率与产品结构变化需验证。2026H1归母下降5.35%、CFO下降34.60%，收入增长未转化为相称收益。会计解释19号追溯调整390000元，TTM桥接已处理，FY杜邦仍明确采用原年报口径。" }, "roe_series": [ { "year": 2019, "roe": 0.18328449014567266, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2020, "roe": 0.19221985294117647, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2021, "roe": 0.29853, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2022, "roe": 0.30503708368317944, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2023, "roe": 0.2488398611111111, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2024, "roe": 0.21847275411218894, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2025, "roe": 0.19797012835472577, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2026, "roe": 0.15336950495049503, "basis": "August TTM" } ], "roe_min": 0.15336950495049503, "channels": [ "roe_quality" ], "proxy_candidate": false, "death_risk": "汽车电驱规模增长但定价持续下降；制造业资本开支下行影响工控订单；技术团队与激励稀释、并购整合及海外拓展费用持续吞噬利润", "price_lines": { "watch": null, "good": null, "fat": null, "intrinsic_value": null, "basis": null, "condition": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于42亿元，估值≤22倍（保守对应总市值≤924亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。", "currency": "CNY", "manual_gate": true }, "current": { "price": 51.9, "date": "2026-09-30", "pe": 28.75, "dy": 0.0096, "market_cap": 140638000000.0, "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz300124", "currency": "CNY", "source_count": 1 }, "buy_conditions": { "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于42亿元，估值≤22倍（保守对应总市值≤924亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。", "verify": "分部利润率与资本占用、归母自由现金流、汽车与工控分别估值；股份支付不加回；在追溯后同口径验证每股扣非增长。", "anchor": "2026-09-30行情51.90元；扣非TTM PE 27.93倍；正常化压力情景利润42—50亿元对应PE 28.13—33.49倍。0.5元参考DPS/股价=0.96%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。", "source": [ "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300124&id=12222830", "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300124&id=12566577", "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555" ] }, "research_file": "research/300124.html", "research_document": { "code": "300124", "name": "汇川技术", "score": "★★★☆☆（3★挂疑点）", "verdict": "3★挂疑点：认可工控平台能力，但汽车扩张尚未证明相称的每股现金回报。", "roe_quality_note": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率11.47%×资产周转0.702×权益乘数1.960=15.78%；期初/期末合并权益乘数2.011/1.920。归母两点平均权益ROE15.94%，扣非同分母15.63%；不冒充披露加权ROE。2025合并杠杆不足2倍，归母均值ROE约16%，不是杠杆型高ROE；但净利率与产品结构变化需验证。2026H1归母下降5.35%、CFO下降34.60%，收入增长未转化为相称收益。会计解释19号追溯调整390000元，TTM桥接已处理，FY杜邦仍明确采用原年报口径。", "as_of": "2026-10-02", "business_and_moat": "【事实】业务覆盖工业自动化、电梯电气、新能源汽车电驱等；2026H1收入增长20.31%而扣非仅增长3.15%。【判断】工控的工程师生态、应用经验、伺服控制与本地服务能形成迁移成本，十年后制造自动化需求仍在；与西门子、安川等竞争，也受国产同行及整车厂价格压力，汽车业务收入不能按高毛利工控估值。", "management_and_capital_allocation": "工程师导向、持续研发支持长期能力；必须把股份支付保留为股东真实费用。2026半年报确认2025每股0.50元分红已派约13.53亿元，年初至披露回购约1.4亿元但未认证全部注销。收购及汽车业务资本投入应以整合ROIC检验，不能以研发规模或市场份额代替回报。", "growth_and_valuation": { "quote": { "price": 51.9, "timestamp": "20260930161430", "pe_ttm_vendor": "28.75", "market_cap_yi": "1406.38" }, "quote_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555", "basis": "腾讯总市值/全公司归母利润；未用流通市值或复权价。", "reported_2025_pe": 27.849097385831655, "recurring_ttm_pe": 27.931430895598716, "recurring_ttm_np_yi": 50.3511619314, "normalized_scenario": { "parent_np_yi_range": [ 42, 50 ], "pe_range": [ 28.1276, 33.485238095238095 ], "status": "研究者保守压力情景，不是已验证正常化盈利预测；扣非TTM也不是周期中枢。", "rationale": "国产替代、工业自动化与电驱成长并存，但较低盈利业务占比上升可能持续稀释利润率。" }, "dividend": { "dps_cny": 0.5, "reference_yield_pct": 0.9633911368015415, "basis": "2025年度每股现金分红，2026H1报告确认已实施；非滚动TTM", "ttm_actual_paid_yield_pct": null, "limitation": "未完整核验所有分派实施公告及同股本TTM桥接，不把参考方案股息率当已实现TTM收益率；2026中期未认证支付的方案不计入。" } }, "buy_conditions": { "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于42亿元，估值≤22倍（保守对应总市值≤924亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。", "verify": "分部利润率与资本占用、归母自由现金流、汽车与工控分别估值；股份支付不加回；在追溯后同口径验证每股扣非增长。", "anchor": "2026-09-30行情51.90元；扣非TTM PE 27.93倍；正常化压力情景利润42—50亿元对应PE 28.13—33.49倍。0.5元参考DPS/股价=0.96%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。", "source": [ "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300124&id=12222830", "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300124&id=12566577", "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555" ], "manual": true }, "risks_and_premortem": [ "汽车电驱规模增长但定价持续下降", "制造业资本开支下行影响工控订单", "技术团队与激励稀释、并购整合及海外拓展费用持续吞噬利润" ], "financial_facts_cny": { "fy2025": { "revenue": 45104844200.13, "parent_np": 5050002089.89, "recurring_parent_np": 4950505396.54, "cfo": 6681025417.16, "assets_end": 71314393635.15, "assets_start": 57178824244.41, "parent_equity_end": 35352991488.32, "parent_equity_start": 27994377858.21, "consolidated_np": 5172693917.11, "total_equity_end": 37134810848.37, "total_equity_start": 28429130808.62 }, "dupont": { "consolidated_net_margin_pct": 11.468156045853476, "asset_turnover": 0.7020579754241648, "equity_multiplier": 1.9598153288555507, "consolidated_roe_pct": 15.779081569475837, "parent_margin_pct": 11.196141300218581, "parent_equity_multiplier": 2.0283907477935155, "parent_roe_simple_pct": 15.943841526440991, "recurring_parent_roe_simple_pct": 15.629711060167887, "equity_multiplier_start": 2.0112758504411543, "equity_multiplier_end": 1.920418927844903 }, "h1_2026": { "revenue": 24675250997.63, "parent_np": 2809924122.46, "recurring_parent_np": 2756053764.48, "cfo": 1975059030.42, "prior_h1_recurring_parent_np": 2671832967.88 }, "recurring_ttm_np": 5035116193.14, 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"主要会计数据", "非经常性损益", "管理层讨论", "财务附注" ], "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/300124-2026H1.txt" }, { "url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555", "title": "腾讯行情原始响应", "source_quality": "行情单源；时间2026-09-30，不能称10月2日成交", "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/quotes.txt" } ], "limitations": [ "财务数字来自实际读取年报及半年报，发行人单源；未完成独立双源核验。", "ROE拆解采用期初期末均值，与加权平均ROE不同；包含少数权益的合并与归母分开计算。", "九家均不因量化八年ROE门槛自动认证护城河；全市场面板有幸存者偏差。", "分红/回购/乱投资历史未穷尽；没有发现完整证据不等于没有风险。", "正常化区间和买入倍数是研究判断/门槛，不是事实、公允价格认证或投资建议。" ] }, "outside_watch": false, "triggers": [], "status": "watch", "provenance": { "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json", "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json", "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）", "quote": "腾讯行情；见原始深研来源" }, "research_rating": 3, "data_quality": [ "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证", 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