{
  "code": "300394",
  "name": "天孚通信",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "通信传输设备",
  "quality_tier": "bronze",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": true,
  "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch1.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
  "score": 3,
  "verdict": "候补等极大安全边际：低杠杆高利润率是真实优势，但客户集中、技术路径和AI资本开支周期使当前高估值不能用高ROE背书。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": 0.390762577405552,
    "turnover": 0.9231931559146276,
    "leverage": 1.1776407040871006,
    "roe": 0.4248331032805919,
    "basis": "FY2025合并简单平均权益杜邦；非加权归母ROE",
    "conclusion": "FY2025同口径合并杜邦：净利率39.08%×资产周转0.923次×平均总权益乘数1.178倍＝合并简单平均权益ROE42.48%；归母简单平均ROE42.53%，报表加权ROE41.91%。2026H1期末合并乘数1.213倍。高净利率驱动的真质量叠加AI景气：合并平均杠杆仅1.18倍；并非金融资产撑ROE，但尚不足证明穿越光通信技术周期。"
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.17352924852941176,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.1927805406586826,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.2298795698924731,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.15746176470588238,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.18848138957816377,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.3944087671232876,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.43437395833333337,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.45109871095686654,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.15746176470588238,
  "channels": [
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "【死法】大客户切换技术/供应商→产线利用率下降→研发和折旧摊薄失效→净利率及估值双降；即使公司活下来，高价股东仍可遭永久损失。；【最坏情况】2025账面资产规模远小于市值，精密设备清算折价大，不具烟蒂资产保护。财务安全和股票安全完全不同。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": 34.38,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": "深研条件价；全部人工验证仍须满足",
    "condition": "正常化PE≤25倍且客户/技术/现金条件通过；不接受用远期倍增利润稀释现时PE。",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 260.77,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 122.49,
    "dy": 0.0038,
    "market_cap": 284454000000.0,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz300394",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "正常化PE≤25倍且客户/技术/现金条件通过；不接受用远期倍增利润稀释现时PE。",
    "verify": "量产良率与新技术订单得到客户侧交叉验证；大客户集中度和单价下降能被新增终端覆盖；跨景气CFO及扣全部capex保持正；正常化盈利不依赖AI开支持续翻倍。",
    "anchor": "研究者正常化归母盈利情景15—20亿元（不是预测/已认证事实）；正常化PE≤25倍按区间下沿给统一估值总额上限375亿元，依本次报价股本代理对应≤34.38元/股。当前正常化情景PE约142.23—189.64倍；当前股息率行情代理0.38%，并未通过已付与可持续性核验。股本变化须重算，A/H公司只是A股每股支付价格门槛。",
    "source": [
      "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12066361",
      "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12502966",
      "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz300394"
    ]
  },
  "research_file": "research/300394.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "300394",
    "name": "天孚通信",
    "score": "★★★☆☆（3/5）",
    "verdict": "候补等极大安全边际：低杠杆高利润率是真实优势，但客户集中、技术路径和AI资本开支周期使当前高估值不能用高ROE背书。",
    "roe_quality_note": "FY2025同口径合并杜邦：净利率39.08%×资产周转0.923次×平均总权益乘数1.178倍＝合并简单平均权益ROE42.48%；归母简单平均ROE42.53%，报表加权ROE41.91%。2026H1期末合并乘数1.213倍。高净利率驱动的真质量叠加AI景气：合并平均杠杆仅1.18倍；并非金融资产撑ROE，但尚不足证明穿越光通信技术周期。",
    "as_of": "2026-10-02",
    "research_type": "ROE质量通道四大师深研第1批",
    "status": "候补挂疑点",
    "rating_is_research_opinion": true,
    "watchlist_changed": false,
    "buffett": {
      "analysis": [
        "【事实】光器件、光引擎封装与一站式光互连平台；2025年Fabrinet占收入63.31%、前五客户89.73%，是年报披露的直接客户而非终端需求占比。",
        "【观点】高精度制造、封装良率、多工艺组合和客户认证带来切换成本，十年光互连需求仍有基础；提价权来自新品/良率而非永久垄断，对成熟料号仍需应对降价。",
        "【反证】头部客户的供应链重构、硅光/CPO封装架构变化可能使现有器件价值量迁移；高市场份额不等于终端云厂商离不开这一供应商，单一直接客户集中已实证。"
      ],
      "sources": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12066361",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12502966"
      ],
      "source_status": "发行人披露经新浪镜像；单源，未经独立经营资料交叉验证",
      "facts_vs_opinions": "条目标明事实/观点/假设/风险情景；管理层自述不等于独立验证"
    },
    "munger": {
      "analysis": [
        "【事实】2025CFO18.68亿元，购建长期资产4.18亿元，现金差14.51亿元；年度每10股派7元并转增4股，中期曾每10股派5元。",
        "【观点】围绕主业技术与产能再投资比跨界收购更可理解，现金转化支持成长；反面是当前订单激励扩产，需求变化时专用资产可能闲置。股票转增不是额外经济回报，激励新股需看稀释。",
        "【限制】报告中未发现足以判定重大跨界失控的证据，但未完成十年逐项目资本配置审计；不能给出无乱投资历史的保证。回购表未提供可认证注销增厚的本期证据。"
      ],
      "sources": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12066361",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12502966"
      ],
      "source_status": "发行人披露经新浪镜像；单源，未经独立经营资料交叉验证",
      "facts_vs_opinions": "条目标明事实/观点/假设/风险情景；管理层自述不等于独立验证"
    },
    "fisher_lynch": {
      "analysis": [
        "【事实】2025收入51.63亿元、扣非19.76亿元；2026H1收入+15.15%、扣非+36.76%，显示盈利率仍强，但收入增速低于2025全年。",
        "【正常化假设】以2024扣非13.14亿元、2025扣非19.76亿元及最新扣非TTM22.95亿元对照，采用15—20亿元压力区间；并非已证实正常周期利润。利润翻倍预期不能作为买入前提。",
        "【股本】2025/2026转增影响每股EPS/DPS；估值用当期总市值除利润，避免拿转增前年报EPS直接除现价。"
      ],
      "sources": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12066361",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12502966"
      ],
      "source_status": "发行人披露经新浪镜像；单源，未经独立经营资料交叉验证",
      "facts_vs_opinions": "条目标明事实/观点/假设/风险情景；管理层自述不等于独立验证"
    },
    "graham": {
      "analysis": [
        "【死法】大客户切换技术/供应商→产线利用率下降→研发和折旧摊薄失效→净利率及估值双降；即使公司活下来，高价股东仍可遭永久损失。",
        "【最坏情况】2025账面资产规模远小于市值，精密设备清算折价大，不具烟蒂资产保护。财务安全和股票安全完全不同。"
      ],
      "sources": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12066361",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12502966"
      ],
      "source_status": "发行人披露经新浪镜像；单源，未经独立经营资料交叉验证",
      "facts_vs_opinions": "条目标明事实/观点/假设/风险情景；管理层自述不等于独立验证"
    },
    "roe_quality": {
      "assessment": "高净利率驱动的真质量叠加AI景气：合并平均杠杆仅1.18倍；并非金融资产撑ROE，但尚不足证明穿越光通信技术周期。",
      "fy2025": {
        "revenue": 5163432471.16,
        "parent_np": 2017266034.08,
        "adjusted_np": 1976452906.47,
        "cfo": 1868203465.93,
        "parent_equity": 5505983414.22,
        "parent_equity_start": 3979564829.64,
        "assets_end": 6449302312.06,
        "assets_start": 4736726176.3,
        "consolidated_np": 2017676180.69,
        "liabilities_end": 936624190.15,
        "liabilities_start": 750727452.6,
        "dupont": {
          "net_margin_pct": 39.0762577405552,
          "asset_turnover": 0.9231931559146276,
          "equity_multiplier": 1.1776407040871006,
          "consolidated_roe_pct": 42.48331032805919,
          "parent_roe_simple_pct": 42.5334621092835,
          "parent_bridge_multiplier": 1.1792706336822145,
          "end_consolidated_multiplier": 1.1699036601515713,
          "end_parent_bridge_multiplier": 1.1713261422843633,
          "adjusted_parent_roe_simple_pct": 41.672929295349036,
          "cfo_parent_np": 0.9261066385733393,
          "reported_weighted_parent_roe_pct": 41.91
        },
        "capex_cash": 417510390.23,
        "cfo_minus_capex_yi": 14.506930757000001,
        "source": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12066361"
      },
      "h1_2026": {
        "revenue": 2827938748.37,
        "parent_np": 1204285104.14,
        "adjusted_np": 1186263481.07,
        "cfo": 1000881668.42,
        "parent_equity": 6248576374.39,
        "assets_end": 7587829694.94,
        "consolidated_np": 1204413560.86,
        "liabilities_end": 1332641849.19,
        "dupont": {
          "halfyear_net_margin_pct": 42.58980367075538,
          "halfyear_turnover_not_annualized": 0.40292258375283085,
          "average_multiplier": 1.1928358162453845,
          "halfyear_consolidated_roe_not_annualized_pct": 20.469532269825695,
          "end_consolidated_multiplier": 1.213045856024203,
          "end_parent_bridge_multiplier": 1.2143293512485458
        },
        "source": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12502966"
      },
      "method": "合并净利率=合并税后净利润/营业收入；周转率=营业收入/期初期末平均总资产；杠杆=平均总资产/平均合并总权益。乘积是合并简单平均ROE，不冒充报表归母加权ROE。另列归母净利润/平均归母权益、扣非归母净利润/平均归母权益；归母桥接乘数含少数权益效果，不是纯债务杠杆。半年周转率和ROE为半年度、未年化。",
      "reported_roe_difference": "分红、增资/注销的时点加权及少数权益导致简单均值与报表加权ROE不同，不能强行调数配平。",
      "cashflow_caution": "CFO/归母利润是合并现金流对归母利润的粗比，不是同口径收益率；CFO减全部购建长期资产是现金差，非已认证所有者收益，未扣并购/客户结算和维持性资本开支净化。",
      "leverage_exceeds_3_latest": false,
      "source_status": "单一发行人年报/半年报披露，半年报未经审计；工具计算"
    },
    "valuation": {
      "quote": {
        "price": "260.77",
        "timestamp": "20260930161445",
        "pe_ttm": "122.49",
        "market_cap_yi": "2844.54",
        "div_yield_quote": "0.38"
      },
      "market_cap_basis": "腾讯总市值，非流通市值；每股估值采用当期报价股本基准",
      "fy2025_static_pe": 141.01,
      "adjusted_ttm_profit_yi": 22.9533,
      "adjusted_ttm_pe": 123.93,
      "normalized_profit_scenario_yi": [
        15,
        20
      ],
      "normalized_pe_scenario": [
        142.23,
        189.64
      ],
      "entry_pe_ceiling": 25,
      "conditional_cap_ceiling_yi": 375,
      "conditional_price_proxy": 34.38,
      "normalization_status": "研究者保守情景，非经审计正常化盈利或预测；必须通过verify后才能激活价格门槛",
      "dividend_yield_pct": 0.38,
      "dividend_basis": "腾讯股息率字段64，单源行情代理，未逐笔重建滚动已付分红；不作为满足买入条件的证据。",
      "fiscal_dividend_reference": {
        "dps_rmb": 0.857143,
        "yield_at_quote_pct": 0.3287,
        "basis": "2025归属年度中期0.5+年度预案0.7，按2026每10股转增4股统一为当前每股口径；年度方案口径非已付TTM。",
        "source": [
          "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12066361",
          "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12502966"
        ]
      },
      "sources": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12066361",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12502966",
        "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz300394"
      ],
      "quote_as_of": "2026-09-30；不是2026-10-02成交价",
      "actual_ah_capitalization": "not_applicable",
      "normalization_rationale": [
        "【事实】2025收入51.63亿元、扣非19.76亿元；2026H1收入+15.15%、扣非+36.76%，显示盈利率仍强，但收入增速低于2025全年。",
        "【正常化假设】以2024扣非13.14亿元、2025扣非19.76亿元及最新扣非TTM22.95亿元对照，采用15—20亿元压力区间；并非已证实正常周期利润。利润翻倍预期不能作为买入前提。",
        "【股本】2025/2026转增影响每股EPS/DPS；估值用当期总市值除利润，避免拿转增前年报EPS直接除现价。"
      ],
      "entry_status": "未触发：价格和定性验证必须同时通过；本次无已核验可买入结论"
    },
    "risks": [
      "【死法】大客户切换技术/供应商→产线利用率下降→研发和折旧摊薄失效→净利率及估值双降；即使公司活下来，高价股东仍可遭永久损失。",
      "【最坏情况】2025账面资产规模远小于市值，精密设备清算折价大，不具烟蒂资产保护。财务安全和股票安全完全不同。"
    ],
    "buy_conditions": {
      "buy_when": "正常化PE≤25倍且客户/技术/现金条件通过；不接受用远期倍增利润稀释现时PE。",
      "verify": "量产良率与新技术订单得到客户侧交叉验证；大客户集中度和单价下降能被新增终端覆盖；跨景气CFO及扣全部capex保持正；正常化盈利不依赖AI开支持续翻倍。",
      "anchor": "研究者正常化归母盈利情景15—20亿元（不是预测/已认证事实）；正常化PE≤25倍按区间下沿给统一估值总额上限375亿元，依本次报价股本代理对应≤34.38元/股。当前正常化情景PE约142.23—189.64倍；当前股息率行情代理0.38%，并未通过已付与可持续性核验。股本变化须重算，A/H公司只是A股每股支付价格门槛。",
      "source": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12066361",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12502966",
        "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz300394"
      ],
      "manual": true,
      "triggered": false,
      "thresholds_are_opinions": true
    },
    "findings": [
      "巴菲特｜【事实】光器件、光引擎封装与一站式光互连平台；2025年Fabrinet占收入63.31%、前五客户89.73%，是年报披露的直接客户而非终端需求占比。 【观点】高精度制造、封装良率、多工艺组合和客户认证带来切换成本，十年光互连需求仍有基础；提价权来自新品/良率而非永久垄断，对成熟料号仍需应对降价。 【反证】头部客户的供应链重构、硅光/CPO封装架构变化可能使现有器件价值量迁移；高市场份额不等于终端云厂商离不开这一供应商，单一直接客户集中已实证。 来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12066361 ; https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12502966",
      "杜邦｜FY2025同口径合并杜邦：净利率39.08%×资产周转0.923次×平均总权益乘数1.178倍＝合并简单平均权益ROE42.48%；归母简单平均ROE42.53%，报表加权ROE41.91%。2026H1期末合并乘数1.213倍。高净利率驱动的真质量叠加AI景气：合并平均杠杆仅1.18倍；并非金融资产撑ROE，但尚不足证明穿越光通信技术周期。 来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12066361 ; https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12502966",
      "芒格｜【事实】2025CFO18.68亿元，购建长期资产4.18亿元，现金差14.51亿元；年度每10股派7元并转增4股，中期曾每10股派5元。 【观点】围绕主业技术与产能再投资比跨界收购更可理解，现金转化支持成长；反面是当前订单激励扩产，需求变化时专用资产可能闲置。股票转增不是额外经济回报，激励新股需看稀释。 【限制】报告中未发现足以判定重大跨界失控的证据，但未完成十年逐项目资本配置审计；不能给出无乱投资历史的保证。回购表未提供可认证注销增厚的本期证据。 来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12066361 ; https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12502966",
      "费雪/林奇｜【事实】2025收入51.63亿元、扣非19.76亿元；2026H1收入+15.15%、扣非+36.76%，显示盈利率仍强，但收入增速低于2025全年。 【正常化假设】以2024扣非13.14亿元、2025扣非19.76亿元及最新扣非TTM22.95亿元对照，采用15—20亿元压力区间；并非已证实正常周期利润。利润翻倍预期不能作为买入前提。 【股本】2025/2026转增影响每股EPS/DPS；估值用当期总市值除利润，避免拿转增前年报EPS直接除现价。 正常化情景PE=[142.23, 189.64]。来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12066361 ; https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12502966 ; https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz300394",
      "烟蒂/最坏情况｜【死法】大客户切换技术/供应商→产线利用率下降→研发和折旧摊薄失效→净利率及估值双降；即使公司活下来，高价股东仍可遭永久损失。 【最坏情况】2025账面资产规模远小于市值，精密设备清算折价大，不具烟蒂资产保护。财务安全和股票安全完全不同。 来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12066361 ; https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12502966"
    ],
    "data_gaps": [
      "终端客户需求与Fabrinet订单穿透",
      "CPO/硅光价值量及新工艺ROIC",
      "独立竞争份额和长期料号价格",
      "转增后已付TTM分红逐笔重建",
      "未完成十年资本配置逐项目审计、全部监管记录及公告穷尽检索；没有发现不是证实不存在",
      "正常化区间为研究者压力情景；缺行业完整周期利润桥接，不能宣称精确内在价值",
      "财务关键数字为发行人单源；新浪镜像不是独立第二来源，行情腾讯单源",
      "股息率行情代理未逐笔独立复算；归属年度分红与支付年度、TTM不可混用"
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "FY2025",
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12066361",
        "type": "发行人2025年度报告新浪镜像",
        "local_path": "/root/value-invest/data/roe_deep_batch1/300394_2025.txt",
        "sha256": "413b66f53a58952f6d75974b7383492063df2e7083da319b30030198c92791b7"
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      {
        "id": "H1_2026",
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300394&id=12502966",
        "type": "发行人2026半年报新浪镜像",
        "local_path": "/root/value-invest/data/roe_deep_batch1/300394_2026H1.txt",
        "sha256": "8dd5c4e15341f3f69cd295aab300da86a840d19ebe385822ffd7120f3dd4dfa7"
      },
      {
        "id": "QUOTE",
        "url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz300394",
        "type": "腾讯行情单源",
        "quoted_timestamp": "20260930161445",
        "local_path": "/root/value-invest/data/roe_deep_batch1/quotes.txt"
      },
      {
        "id": "FY2025_PDF",
        "url": "https://file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97:9494/MRGG/CNSESZ_STOCK/2026/2026-4/2026-04-08/12066361.PDF",
        "local_path": "/root/value-invest/data/roe_deep_batch1/300394_2025.pdf",
        "sha256": "969e5142ee753b68e1f01c26e25215310d643dda43e4a25ae72bcc01f1265268",
        "note": "新浪正文空壳，已下载原PDF并提取265页文本；主要会计数据在PDF第11页，客户集中度及Fabrinet占比在第27页（1起始页码）"
      }
    ]
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch1.json",
    "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch1.json",
    "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch1.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
    "quote": "腾讯行情；见原始深研来源"
  },
  "research_rating": 3,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": 658.4933,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [],
  "reject_reason": "",
  "reject_reason_source": "",
  "tracking_state": "observing",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "正常化PE≤25倍且客户/技术/现金条件通过",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "不接受用远期倍增利润稀释现时PE。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "事件",
      "item": "量产良率与新技术订单得到客户侧交叉验证",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "大客户集中度和单价下降能被新增终端覆盖",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "跨景气CFO及扣全部capex保持正",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "正常化盈利不依赖AI开支持续翻倍。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}