{
  "code": "300628",
  "name": "亿联网络",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "终端设备",
  "quality_tier": "bronze",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": true,
  "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
  "score": 3,
  "verdict": "3★挂疑点：低杠杆高毛利是真优势，但现金转化恶化和大额理财需核清后才谈4★。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": 0.43105132175581146,
    "turnover": 0.589466708273132,
    "leverage": 1.120082160319763,
    "roe": 0.2846021283288619,
    "basis": "FY2025合并简单平均权益杜邦；非加权归母ROE",
    "conclusion": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率43.11%×资产周转0.589×权益乘数1.120=28.46%；期初/期末合并权益乘数1.092/1.147。归母两点平均权益ROE28.46%，扣非同分母26.54%；不冒充披露加权ROE。权益乘数约1.12，属于低杠杆高利润率模式。2025交易性金融资产49.29亿元占资产46.09%，为审计关键事项；委托理财收益1.4649亿元，扣非ROE仍约26.54%，因此不是主要靠金融收益堆出的ROE，但现金资产可回收性须核。2026H1 CFO/归母约0.54，利润与现金背离不能忽略。"
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.3312714453584018,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.3243830769230769,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.30263643471462076,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.3404840346534654,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.2936776859504132,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.2986230845771144,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.29289667673716013,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.2940565167243368,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.29289667673716013,
  "channels": [
    "value",
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "软电话替代SIP硬件和平台伙伴改策略；海外关税、出口合规、汇率冲击；渠道库存和应收上升、理财信用风险，助听器扩张亏损",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于22亿元，估值≤18倍（保守对应总市值≤396亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 39.49,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 17.34,
    "dy": 0.045599999999999995,
    "market_cap": 50031000000.0,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz300628",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于22亿元，估值≤18倍（保守对应总市值≤396亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。",
    "verify": "应收账龄、渠道库存与现金回款恢复；理财底层、受限与到期结构；会议产品净利和SIP需求；核实分紅支付且3年FCF覆盖。",
    "anchor": "2026-09-30行情39.49元；扣非TTM PE 18.43倍；正常化压力情景利润22—27亿元对应PE 18.53—22.74倍。1.3元参考DPS/股价=3.29%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。",
    "source": [
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      "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300628&id=12503195",
      "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555"
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  "research_file": "research/300628.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "300628",
    "name": "亿联网络",
    "score": "★★★☆☆（3★挂疑点）",
    "verdict": "3★挂疑点：低杠杆高毛利是真优势，但现金转化恶化和大额理财需核清后才谈4★。",
    "roe_quality_note": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率43.11%×资产周转0.589×权益乘数1.120=28.46%；期初/期末合并权益乘数1.092/1.147。归母两点平均权益ROE28.46%，扣非同分母26.54%；不冒充披露加权ROE。权益乘数约1.12，属于低杠杆高利润率模式。2025交易性金融资产49.29亿元占资产46.09%，为审计关键事项；委托理财收益1.4649亿元，扣非ROE仍约26.54%，因此不是主要靠金融收益堆出的ROE，但现金资产可回收性须核。2026H1 CFO/归母约0.54，利润与现金背离不能忽略。",
    "as_of": "2026-10-02",
    "business_and_moat": "【事实】企业桌面通信、视频会议等终端，2026H1收入增26.40%、扣非增25.04%。【判断】渠道、平台兼容认证、研发效率与产品体验构成壁垒；十年后企业通信需求仍在，但桌面话机可能受软终端替代，会议业务面临罗技、思科等竞争并依赖平台生态，不能把历史高毛利等同永久提价权。",
    "management_and_capital_allocation": "2025末期分红方案每股1.30元，2026中期方案0.50元未核验支付日；有现金回报但理财规模高，须穿透产品底层和期限。助听器等邻近业务有技术协同可能，却不应在未回本前给高估值；回购注销历史本轮未完整取证。",
    "growth_and_valuation": {
      "quote": {
        "price": 39.49,
        "timestamp": "20260930161445",
        "pe_ttm_vendor": "17.34",
        "market_cap_yi": "500.31"
      },
      "quote_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555",
      "basis": "腾讯总市值/全公司归母利润；未用流通市值或复权价。",
      "reported_2025_pe": 19.238190647589576,
      "recurring_ttm_pe": 18.429799741163784,
      "recurring_ttm_np_yi": 27.1467952461,
      "normalized_scenario": {
        "parent_np_yi_range": [
          22,
          27
        ],
        "pe_range": [
          18.53,
          22.741363636363637
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        "status": "研究者保守压力情景，不是已验证正常化盈利预测；扣非TTM也不是周期中枢。",
        "rationale": "会议室升级和海外份额提升支持成长，但需要区分真实终端需求与经销商补库存。"
      },
      "dividend": {
        "dps_cny": 1.3,
        "reference_yield_pct": 3.2919726513041274,
        "basis": "2025年报末期方案单次DPS，不声称全年或TTM；实施日期未单独核验",
        "ttm_actual_paid_yield_pct": null,
        "limitation": "未完整核验所有分派实施公告及同股本TTM桥接，不把参考方案股息率当已实现TTM收益率；2026中期未认证支付的方案不计入。"
      }
    },
    "buy_conditions": {
      "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于22亿元，估值≤18倍（保守对应总市值≤396亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。",
      "verify": "应收账龄、渠道库存与现金回款恢复；理财底层、受限与到期结构；会议产品净利和SIP需求；核实分紅支付且3年FCF覆盖。",
      "anchor": "2026-09-30行情39.49元；扣非TTM PE 18.43倍；正常化压力情景利润22—27亿元对应PE 18.53—22.74倍。1.3元参考DPS/股价=3.29%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。",
      "source": [
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        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300628&id=12503195",
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      "软电话替代SIP硬件和平台伙伴改策略",
      "海外关税、出口合规、汇率冲击",
      "渠道库存和应收上升、理财信用风险，助听器扩张亏损"
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        "recurring_parent_np": 2425361907.9,
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        "assets_start": 9774512670.1,
        "parent_equity_end": 9327725234.7,
        "parent_equity_start": 8947671403.62,
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        "total_equity_start": 8947671403.62
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        "asset_turnover": 0.589466708273132,
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        "consolidated_roe_pct": 28.46021283288619,
        "parent_margin_pct": 43.10513217558115,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.120082160319763,
        "parent_roe_simple_pct": 28.46021283288619,
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        "recurring_parent_np": 1444899264.04,
        "cfo": 828724469.66,
        "prior_h1_recurring_parent_np": 1155581647.33
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      "recurring_ttm_pe": 18.429799741163784,
      "cfo_to_parent_np_2025": 0.7045990586531806,
      "cfo_to_parent_np_h1": 0.543693473650049,
      "h1_parent_dupont_not_annualized": {
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        "asset_turnover": 0.32056055773187264,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.1273299496350573,
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        "basis": "归母净利率×营收/平均合并资产×平均合并资产/平均归母权益，代数桥接；不是标准全合并杜邦。"
      }
    },
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300628&id=12135959",
        "title": "2025年年度报告全文",
        "source_quality": "发行人公告，新浪镜像；单源",
        "sections": [
          "主要会计数据",
          "管理层讨论",
          "利润分配",
          "合并资产负债表",
          "合并利润表",
          "财务附注"
        ],
        "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/300628-2025.txt"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300628&id=12503195",
        "title": "2026年半年度报告全文",
        "source_quality": "同一发行人公告，非独立双源",
        "sections": [
          "主要会计数据",
          "非经常性损益",
          "管理层讨论",
          "财务附注"
        ],
        "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/300628-2026H1.txt"
      },
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        "url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555",
        "title": "腾讯行情原始响应",
        "source_quality": "行情单源；时间2026-09-30，不能称10月2日成交",
        "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/quotes.txt"
      }
    ],
    "limitations": [
      "财务数字来自实际读取年报及半年报，发行人单源；未完成独立双源核验。",
      "ROE拆解采用期初期末均值，与加权平均ROE不同；包含少数权益的合并与归母分开计算。",
      "九家均不因量化八年ROE门槛自动认证护城河；全市场面板有幸存者偏差。",
      "分红/回购/乱投资历史未穷尽；没有发现完整证据不等于没有风险。",
      "正常化区间和买入倍数是研究判断/门槛，不是事实、公允价格认证或投资建议。"
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  "provenance": {
    "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json",
    "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json",
    "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
    "quote": "腾讯行情；见原始深研来源"
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  "data_quality": [
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    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
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  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [],
  "reject_reason": "",
  "reject_reason_source": "",
  "tracking_state": "observing",
  "verification_kind": "price_line",
  "verification_reason": "已深研；数值价格线待核，不等于深研否决",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于22亿元，估值≤18倍（保守对应总市值≤396亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "当前不视为触发。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "事件",
      "item": "应收账龄、渠道库存与现金回款恢复",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "理财底层、受限与到期结构",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "会议产品净利和SIP需求",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "核实分紅支付且3年FCF覆盖。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}