{
  "code": "300724",
  "name": "捷佳伟创",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "其它专用机械",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "2★回避：历史ROE被光伏扩产周期和预收经营杠杆放大，最新盈利坍塌已否定稳定复利假设。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": 0.169190656162053,
    "turnover": 0.5291638736573204,
    "leverage": 2.3942591748475768,
    "roe": 0.2143570255212258,
    "basis": "FY2025合并简单平均权益杜邦；非加权归母ROE",
    "conclusion": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率16.92%×资产周转0.529×权益乘数2.394=21.44%；期初/期末合并权益乘数3.033/1.863。归母两点平均权益ROE21.43%，扣非同分母19.33%；不冒充披露加权ROE。历史高ROE必须打回稳定复利通道：2024末合并资产/权益3.03倍，2025年均仍2.39倍，主要含客户预收/应付形成的经营杠杆而非全为借款。2025 CFO为-12.04亿元、Q4归母亏0.712亿元。2026H1扣非仅3.009亿元；CFO转正12.22亿元同时应付增加，不能据此认定新订单和盈利复苏。"
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.2539062091503268,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.16764397905759165,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.26116864244741866,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.15297210599721062,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.19284851957975166,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.2638225214198286,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.3409429811866859,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.1786829957967138,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.15297210599721062,
  "channels": [
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "下游亏损导致停产、延期验收和坏账；TOPCon设备路线被替代，库存和售后义务减值；预收款退回而供应商仍需结算，账面净现金并非可自由分配；转向新设备再烧钱",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于5亿元，估值≤12倍（保守对应总市值≤60亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 53.55,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 16.06,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": 18651000000.0,
    "source": "腾讯行情；见原始深研来源",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于5亿元，估值≤12倍（保守对应总市值≤60亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。",
    "verify": "连续两个季度新签订单净额、取消/退款、客户回款及应收核销；扣非回升且不靠减值转回；按设备路线验证毛利与交付；现金覆盖退款、采购与保修。",
    "anchor": "2026-09-30行情53.55元；扣非TTM PE 19.01倍；正常化压力情景利润5—10亿元对应PE 18.65—37.30倍。1.2元参考DPS/股价=2.24%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。",
    "source": [
      "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300724&id=12205610",
      "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300724&id=12559389",
      "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555"
    ]
  },
  "research_file": "research/300724.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "300724",
    "name": "捷佳伟创",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2★回避）",
    "verdict": "2★回避：历史ROE被光伏扩产周期和预收经营杠杆放大，最新盈利坍塌已否定稳定复利假设。",
    "roe_quality_note": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率16.92%×资产周转0.529×权益乘数2.394=21.44%；期初/期末合并权益乘数3.033/1.863。归母两点平均权益ROE21.43%，扣非同分母19.33%；不冒充披露加权ROE。历史高ROE必须打回稳定复利通道：2024末合并资产/权益3.03倍，2025年均仍2.39倍，主要含客户预收/应付形成的经营杠杆而非全为借款。2025 CFO为-12.04亿元、Q4归母亏0.712亿元。2026H1扣非仅3.009亿元；CFO转正12.22亿元同时应付增加，不能据此认定新订单和盈利复苏。",
    "as_of": "2026-10-02",
    "business_and_moat": "【事实】TOPCon等太阳能电池工艺设备并布局HJT、BC、钙钛矿及新装备；2026H1收入下降67.43%、扣非下降82.08%。【判断】工艺积累和客户验证有价值，十年后光伏需求存在不代表现有设备路线或峰值订单可维持；迈为、拉普拉斯等路线竞争与客户资金约束决定其是资本开支周期生意，提价权弱。",
    "management_and_capital_allocation": "2026H1确认2025每股1.20元分红已实施约4.17亿元；募投用途曾调整及新赛道投入均需核验回报。不能把终止旧项目、转向半导体/PCB等叙事当作已成功多元化。回购及员工持股与注销用途需继续核验。",
    "growth_and_valuation": {
      "quote": {
        "price": 53.55,
        "timestamp": "20260930161454",
        "pe_ttm_vendor": "16.06",
        "market_cap_yi": "186.51"
      },
      "quote_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555",
      "basis": "腾讯总市值/全公司归母利润；未用流通市值或复权价。",
      "reported_2025_pe": 7.126743946696405,
      "recurring_ttm_pe": 19.00508819092113,
      "recurring_ttm_np_yi": 9.813687688600004,
      "normalized_scenario": {
        "parent_np_yi_range": [
          5,
          10
        ],
        "pe_range": [
          18.651,
          37.302
        ],
        "status": "研究者保守压力情景，不是已验证正常化盈利预测；扣非TTM也不是周期中枢。",
        "rationale": "设备存量订单验收与新签订单不同，2025高利润包含上一轮扩产兑现。2026H1合同负债47.84亿元较年初46.10亿元略增，仅是余额而非新签订单，更不是无取消风险的利润储备。"
      },
      "dividend": {
        "dps_cny": 1.2,
        "reference_yield_pct": 2.2408963585434174,
        "basis": "2025年度每股现金分红，2026H1报告确认已实施；非滚动TTM",
        "ttm_actual_paid_yield_pct": null,
        "limitation": "未完整核验所有分派实施公告及同股本TTM桥接，不把参考方案股息率当已实现TTM收益率；2026中期未认证支付的方案不计入。"
      }
    },
    "buy_conditions": {
      "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于5亿元，估值≤12倍（保守对应总市值≤60亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。",
      "verify": "连续两个季度新签订单净额、取消/退款、客户回款及应收核销；扣非回升且不靠减值转回；按设备路线验证毛利与交付；现金覆盖退款、采购与保修。",
      "anchor": "2026-09-30行情53.55元；扣非TTM PE 19.01倍；正常化压力情景利润5—10亿元对应PE 18.65—37.30倍。1.2元参考DPS/股价=2.24%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。",
      "source": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300724&id=12205610",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300724&id=12559389",
        "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555"
      ],
      "manual": true
    },
    "risks_and_premortem": [
      "下游亏损导致停产、延期验收和坏账",
      "TOPCon设备路线被替代，库存和售后义务减值",
      "预收款退回而供应商仍需结算，账面净现金并非可自由分配；转向新设备再烧钱"
    ],
    "financial_facts_cny": {
      "fy2025": {
        "revenue": 15471668898.8,
        "parent_np": 2617043651.28,
        "recurring_parent_np": 2360030981.28,
        "cfo": -1204364965.64,
        "assets_end": 24845818145.23,
        "assets_start": 33630089485.68,
        "parent_equity_end": 13331920171.97,
        "parent_equity_start": 11086752866.61,
        "consolidated_np": 2617661812.91,
        "total_equity_end": 13334588694.51,
        "total_equity_start": 11088793805.27
      },
      "dupont": {
        "consolidated_net_margin_pct": 16.9190656162053,
        "asset_turnover": 0.5291638736573204,
        "equity_multiplier": 2.3942591748475768,
        "consolidated_roe_pct": 21.435702552122578,
        "parent_margin_pct": 16.915070173735305,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 2.3947209391158015,
        "parent_roe_simple_pct": 21.43477368442775,
        "recurring_parent_roe_simple_pct": 19.32972342560381,
        "equity_multiplier_start": 3.032799606184141,
        "equity_multiplier_end": 1.863260930984643
      },
      "h1_2026": {
        "revenue": 2726604936.43,
        "parent_np": 374630617.57,
        "recurring_parent_np": 300941173.05,
        "cfo": 1222095664.05,
        "prior_h1_recurring_parent_np": 1679603385.47
      },
      "recurring_ttm_np": 981368768.8600004,
      "recurring_ttm_pe": 19.00508819092113,
      "cfo_to_parent_np_2025": -0.4602005644999247,
      "cfo_to_parent_np_h1": 3.262135038446639,
      "h1_parent_dupont_not_annualized": {
        "parent_net_margin_pct": 13.73982026382273,
        "asset_turnover": 0.10715223048938576,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.9114277881852235,
        "parent_roe_simple_pct": 2.814104125247421,
        "recurring_parent_roe_simple_pct": 2.2605728331282555,
        "basis": "归母净利率×营收/平均合并资产×平均合并资产/平均归母权益，代数桥接；不是标准全合并杜邦。"
      }
    },
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300724&id=12205610",
        "title": "2025年年度报告全文",
        "source_quality": "发行人公告，新浪镜像；单源",
        "sections": [
          "主要会计数据",
          "管理层讨论",
          "利润分配",
          "合并资产负债表",
          "合并利润表",
          "财务附注"
        ],
        "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/300724-2025.txt"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300724&id=12559389",
        "title": "2026年半年度报告全文",
        "source_quality": "同一发行人公告，非独立双源",
        "sections": [
          "主要会计数据",
          "非经常性损益",
          "管理层讨论",
          "财务附注"
        ],
        "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/300724-2026H1.txt"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555",
        "title": "腾讯行情原始响应",
        "source_quality": "行情单源；时间2026-09-30，不能称10月2日成交",
        "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/quotes.txt"
      }
    ],
    "limitations": [
      "财务数字来自实际读取年报及半年报，发行人单源；未完成独立双源核验。",
      "ROE拆解采用期初期末均值，与加权平均ROE不同；包含少数权益的合并与归母分开计算。",
      "九家均不因量化八年ROE门槛自动认证护城河；全市场面板有幸存者偏差。",
      "分红/回购/乱投资历史未穷尽；没有发现完整证据不等于没有风险。",
      "正常化区间和买入倍数是研究判断/门槛，不是事实、公允价格认证或投资建议。"
    ]
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json",
    "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json",
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": "腾讯行情；见原始深研来源",
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "周期坍塌"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "2★回避：历史ROE被光伏扩产周期和预收经营杠杆放大，最新盈利坍塌已否定稳定复利假设。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于5亿元，估值≤12倍（保守对应总市值≤60亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "当前不视为触发。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "事件",
      "item": "连续两个季度新签订单净额、取消/退款、客户回款及应收核销",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "扣非回升且不靠减值转回",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "按设备路线验证毛利与交付",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "现金覆盖退款、采购与保修。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}