{
  "code": "300979",
  "name": "华利集团",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "行业待核验",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "回避：暂不依据历史ROE和高股息买入，待订单、毛利率及资本开支后的现金覆盖改善，再重新估值。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.396843134515994,
    "roe": 0.1673405986903648,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.11979913460243215,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 16.73%，权益乘数 1.40倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 11.98%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.1673405986903648,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.2841,
      "net_profit_ttm": 2829000000.0,
      "equity": 16905640484.97628,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.11979913460243216
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.46880308674827037,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.3290420158959538,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.26355173482032224,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.2580675,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.224886484375,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.1673405986903648,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.1673405986903648,
  "channels": [
    "value"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：【事实】2026年上半年收入109.25亿元，同比下降13.71%；归母净利润9.53亿元，下降42.98%；扣非净利润8.37亿元，下降50.27%；运动鞋毛利率17.68%，下降4.15个百分点。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/300979.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "300979",
    "name": "华利集团（中山华利实业集团股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "巴菲特·财务估值",
    "business": "主营运动鞋开发设计、生产和销售，为全球运动品牌提供制造服务，主要生产基地位于越南，并扩展印度尼西亚产能。名称与主业已据2026年半年报确认。",
    "core_questions": [
      {
        "question": "一、历史高ROE能否代表正常盈利能力？",
        "analysis": "【事实】2026年上半年收入109.25亿元，同比下降13.71%；归母净利润9.53亿元，下降42.98%；扣非净利润8.37亿元，下降50.27%；运动鞋毛利率17.68%，下降4.15个百分点。[H1，单源未交叉]公司归因于品牌下单谨慎、新厂释放不及预期、排程调整及关税让利。【观点】这不是仅凭汇率即可解释的波动，核心经营利润已明显承压。长期客户关系与复杂制造管理能力仍有价值，但制造商并不掌握终端品牌定价权。正面证据是公司披露二季度收入和归母利润较一季度均增长约50%，显示经营环比改善；反面是季节性及低基数可能放大环比，不能用它否定同比恶化。估值应采用压力情景下的正常化利润，而非直接套历史ROE。"
      },
      {
        "question": "二、利润和高分红是否有自由现金流支撑？",
        "analysis": "【事实】上半年经营现金流5.07亿元，同比下降67.58%，与归母净利润之比经计算约0.53；中期拟分红11.67亿元，相当于当期归母利润122.51%。现金流及分红条款在新浪半年报与巨潮文件一致，但属于同一公司披露，仍属单源未交叉。[H1][H2]期末短期借款30.35亿元，上年末20.44亿元。[H1]【观点】愿意分红是正面资本配置信号，却不是当期现金创造能力强的证据；分红超过当期利润和经营现金流，需要调用存量资金。短贷上升也要求审查资金结构，但不能武断认定借款直接用于分红。完整资本开支及维持性支出尚未提取，故不能宣称自由现金流覆盖分红，更不能把投资现金流净额全部当作资本开支。"
      },
      {
        "question": "三、看起来不贵的估值，是否已经补偿盈利下修风险？",
        "analysis": "【事实】用户面板给出E/P=0.071、PB=2.363、股息率0.061及现金流利润比1.301，均未提供统一日期和计算底稿。仅取E/P倒数得约14.08倍，属于面板隐含值，不是已核验的市场PE；若利润除以流通而非总市值，该结果还会低估实际估值。最新半年报现金流利润比约0.53，与面板数值并不相同，首先应核对期间。[H1]【观点】制造效率恢复时，优质代工企业可能存在逆周期机会；反面是关税让利、客户订单和新增产能回报均未稳定，过去利润可能高于未来正常水平。高股息也可能来自超额派现而非盈利改善。缺少同日总市值、完整净债务和维护性资本开支，目前不足以证明安全边际，不能据低表观PE直接买入。"
      }
    ],
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5）",
    "conclusion": "最新经营与现金流证据明显弱于静态价值面板，高分红不能抵消利润下修和产能回报的不确定性；暂不符合以可预测所有者收益为核心的买入标准。",
    "verdict": "回避：暂不依据历史ROE和高股息买入，待订单、毛利率及资本开支后的现金覆盖改善，再重新估值。",
    "findings": [
      "半年报归母净利润下降42.98%、扣非净利润下降50.27%，显著弱于收入下降13.71%，反映主营利润率恶化。来源：2026年半年报[H1]，单源未交叉。",
      "经营现金流5.07亿元、归母净利润9.53亿元，计算现金流利润比约0.53，不能继续无条件沿用面板1.301。来源：[H1][H2]同一公司披露，单源未交叉；比值经工具计算。",
      "中期拟分红11.67亿元、派息率122.51%，同时短期借款从上年末20.44亿元升至30.35亿元；应检查分红、扩产与资金调度的兼容性。来源：[H1]，单源未交叉；不把相关性解释为借款直接分红。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "缺最新同日总市值、完整有息负债与受限资金拆分、维持性和扩张性资本开支、五年累计自由现金流、客户订单及单客利润贡献。未完成2025年年报与2026半年报的完整三表滚动建模。公司2021年上市，用户“10年ROE中位”可能包含上市前数据或不足十年的有效窗口，不能未经检查称为十年可比上市记录。中期分红在所读半年报中为预案，未核验后续实施状态。检索出现低质量转载，未采用其客户占比等数据。",
    "sources": {
      "H1": "2026年半年度报告，新浪财经公告原文：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300979&id=12513077",
      "H2": "2026年半年度报告，巨潮资讯PDF：http://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-21/1225487545.PDF",
      "H3": "2026年半年度利润分配预案：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=300979&id=12513083"
    }
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/300979.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "core_questions[0].analysis",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "现金转换"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "回避：暂不依据历史ROE和高股息买入，待订单、毛利率及资本开支后的现金覆盖改善，再重新估值。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "回避：暂不依据历史ROE和高股息买入，待订单、毛利率及资本开支后的现金覆盖改善，再重新估值。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}