{
  "code": "301170",
  "name": "锡南科技",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "行业待核验",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "回避：客户和燃油动力相关产品高度集中，新能源转型贡献尚弱，又有利润下滑、扩产现金消耗和募集资金内控瑕疵，低流通市值不是安全边际。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.090037061260083,
    "roe": 0.0561034900990099,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.05146934181683168,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 5.61%，权益乘数 1.09倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 5.15%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.0561034900990099,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.08259999999999999,
      "net_profit_ttm": 98547000.0,
      "equity": 1756521739.1304348,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.05146934181683169
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.14106783184956959,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.08271723565681113,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.0654018829090909,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.0561034900990099,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.0561034900990099,
  "channels": [],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：核心问题二：什么技术替代会永久毁损价值？",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/301170.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "301170",
    "name": "锡南科技（无锡锡南科技股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "芒格·行业竞争",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5）",
    "verdict": "回避：客户和燃油动力相关产品高度集中，新能源转型贡献尚弱，又有利润下滑、扩产现金消耗和募集资金内控瑕疵，低流通市值不是安全边际。",
    "findings": [
      "核心问题一：细分领先是否意味着议价权？【事实】公司从事汽车轻量化铝合金零部件研发、生产和销售，核心产品是涡轮增压器精密压气机壳组件，主要向盖瑞特、康明斯等一级零部件厂商供货。2025年前五大客户贡献收入87.65%，最大客户占37.66%；年报列示主要竞争者包括蠡湖股份、远轻铝业。【观点】客户认证、质量及交付能力构成真实进入壁垒，但下游高度集中也使失单、客户压价和单一平台变更的影响放大。公司自述“主要供应商”不能替代独立市占率证据，更不能证明其掌握产业链定价权。来源：2025年报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=301170&id=12158397 ；巨潮原文 https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-24/1225158844.PDF 。集中度和竞争格局来自同一公司披露，单源未交叉。",
      "核心问题二：什么技术替代会永久毁损价值？【事实】2025年精密压气机壳组件占收入87.81%，非压气机壳零部件仅占0.99%，后者收入同比下降27.45%；2026年上半年营收5.88亿元、同比增长8.91%，归母净利润3281.32万元、同比下降38.28%，扣非净利润3203.89万元、同比下降32.10%。【观点】混动和传统燃油车型可延续增压器需求，公司也开发电机壳、逆变器壳及电力设备零部件，这是正面反证；但纯电动力不需要传统发动机涡轮增压器，现有收入结构尚未证明新业务能接替旧业务。增收不增利进一步削弱转型已成功的假设。来源：上述2025年报；2026年半年报摘要 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=301170&id=12534351 ；时代财经报道 https://www.sohu.com/a/1067779794_100019684 交叉核对半年营收和归母净利润。产品结构及扣非数字单源未交叉。",
      "核心问题三：扩产、内控和估值是否叠加风险？【事实】2025年经营现金流9200.21万元，购建长期资产现金支出2.10亿元，简化自由现金流约-1.18亿元。年报承认2025年4月7日误将募集资金999835.68元转入自有资金账户，5月9日归还，称期间未使用。正面是2025年获北京德皓标准无保留审计意见，年报退市事项不适用、报告期不存在处罚及整改情况；2026年半年报摘要列示李忠良、李明杰所持股份质押、标记或冻结数量为0。【观点】不能把误划资金直接定性为造假，但它是必须保留的内控红旗；同时扩产需要现金，不能只看账面盈利。公司总股本1亿股且主要股东仍持有大量限售股份，使用流通市值计算PB/E/P会夸大便宜程度，任务PB=0.483尚不能证明全股权折价。来源：上述2025年报、2026年半年报摘要；募集资金、资本开支、审计和质押均单源未交叉，简化自由现金流为根据年报计算。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "已获得2025年报全文和2026年半年报摘要，未完成2026年半年报全文的风险、毛利率及客户结构核验，也未穷尽期后处罚与立案公告。缺独立市占率、客户订单期限和年降价条款、新能源及电力设备业务独立利润、泰国项目回报与在手订单。公司于2023年上市，任务“10年ROE中位数”不可能直接等同十年上市公司披露序列，必须核验历史样本长度和IPO前后资本口径；完整股权市值及真实PB、E/P亦未核定。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/301170.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "findings[1]",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "治理疑点",
    "单品依赖",
    "估值口径",
    "现金转换"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "回避：客户和燃油动力相关产品高度集中，新能源转型贡献尚弱，又有利润下滑、扩产现金消耗和募集资金内控瑕疵，低流通市值不是安全边际。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "回避：客户和燃油动力相关产品高度集中，新能源转型贡献尚弱，又有利润下滑、扩产现金消耗和募集资金内控瑕疵，低流通市值不是安全边际。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}