{
  "code": "600035",
  "name": "楚天高速",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "高速公路",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "回避：现金流入不等于可分配现金，改扩建资本开支、施工与分流压力叠加历史信披违规，现有折价不足以证明安全边际。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 2.239140170174653,
    "roe": 0.057544074074074074,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.02569918348148148,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 5.75%，权益乘数 2.24倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 2.57%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.057544074074074074,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.5534,
      "net_profit_ttm": 502000000.0,
      "equity": 8723747980.613894,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.02569918348148148
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.07210945945945944,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.05611348555729985,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.11144928641975307,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.10980243243243244,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.119815214384509,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.10208067940552017,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.086734375,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.057544074074074074,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.05611348555729985,
  "channels": [
    "butt"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：【观点】审计意见与控股股东无质押是正面证据，但不能抹去历史信披和非主业资本配置问题；本次未发现已实施退市风险警示的直接证据，不等于完成全面排雷。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/600035.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "600035",
    "name": "楚天高速（湖北楚天智能交通股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "巴菲特·财务估值",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5）",
    "verdict": "回避：现金流入不等于可分配现金，改扩建资本开支、施工与分流压力叠加历史信披违规，现有折价不足以证明安全边际。",
    "findings": [
      "核心问题一：利润是否代表可持续的股东收益？【事实】公司主业为收费公路投资建设运营，并经营交通科技、交通能源业务。2026年上半年营收23.37亿元、归母净利润4.37亿元，同比增长0.91%、8.59%；扣非归母净利润4.34亿元，同比增长17.13%。上述业绩经半年报与证券时报报道交叉核对。但半年报同时披露营业外收入8125.32万元，主要来自所属路段受汉宜高速改扩建施工影响的补偿款；营业外支出847.83万元亦主要与相关补偿有关。公司还明确列出汉宜高速施工、武松高速和武渝高速通车、随信高速开通及平行国道造成的车辆流失或分流。【观点】盈利增长是正面证据，但不能直接当成正常通行费增长；扣非增长也不能免除对施工补偿分类、可持续性和车流量摊销估计的复核。来源：2026年半年报第6、9—12页，https://stockmc.xueqiu.com/202608/600035_20260827_OX3H.pdf；证券时报，https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/4130252.html。补偿与分流细节为单源未交叉。",
      "核心问题二：账面便宜能否转化为自由现金流？【事实】2026年上半年经营现金流净额7.14亿元，但购建固定资产、无形资产及其他长期资产支付现金29.44亿元；按两者相减计算的简化自由现金流约为负22.30亿元。期末资产负债率57.10%，上年末55.39%；长期借款80.01亿元，较上年末增长38.74%。【观点】收费业务确有现金回收优势，但增长性改扩建支出吞噬现金，cf/np较高不能证明股息有充足自由现金流覆盖。该简化指标没有区分维护与扩张资本开支，也不是股东自由现金流，不能单凭一期负值认定永久损毁；反过来，在项目回报、收费期限和后续融资需求未厘清前，也不能把PB=0.635当清算折价。来源：半年报第13—14、57、66—67页，https://stockmc.xueqiu.com/202608/600035_20260827_OX3H.pdf；现金流及负债数据单源未交叉，简化自由现金流据原表计算。PB及cf/np来自题设，尚未核验时点与口径。",
      "核心问题三：审计与治理是否足以排除价值陷阱？【事实】2025年度审计报告给出无保留审计意见，并把高速公路特许经营权摊销列为关键审计事项；2026年半年报显示控股股东湖北交投持股37.64%，股份质押、标记或冻结栏为“无”，本期违法违规处罚事项列“不适用”。但湖北证监局曾于2023年因股权基金相关协议及进展披露问题，对公司及有关责任人出具警示函，这是行政监管措施，不能混称为行政处罚或财务造假认定。该基金相关诉讼在2026年5月收到检察院不支持监督申请决定；公司称此前已作会计处理，本次结果不对当期利润产生重大影响。【观点】审计意见与控股股东无质押是正面证据，但不能抹去历史信披和非主业资本配置问题；本次未发现已实施退市风险警示的直接证据，不等于完成全面排雷。来源：审计报告，https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600035&id=12152476；湖北证监局，http://www.csrc.gov.cn/hubei/c104408/c7440814/content.shtml；诉讼公告，https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/listedinfo/announcement/c/new/2026-05-29/600035_20260529_5J7D.pdf；半年报第39、47页。各具体审计、质押与监管事项为单源未交叉。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "检索覆盖到2026年半年报及相关公告，不保证穷尽截至研究日全部临时公告。未完成五年自由现金流、维护性资本开支、收费期终值及改扩建全周期回报复核。题设毛利率%=0.358存在单位歧义，不擅自改写。搜索所得新浪AI文章将2025年净利润写为4.58亿元，与审计报告未分配利润附注的归母净利润539,892,402.46元不一致，未采用该AI数字估值。半年报未经审计；施工补偿与扣非分类仍需专项核对，因此不建立目标价。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/600035.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "findings[2]",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "治理疑点",
    "现金转换"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "回避：现金流入不等于可分配现金，改扩建资本开支、施工与分流压力叠加历史信披违规，现有折价不足以证明安全边际。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "回避：现金流入不等于可分配现金，改扩建资本开支、施工与分流压力叠加历史信披违规，现有折价不足以证明安全边际。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}