{
  "code": "600548",
  "name": "深高速",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "高速公路",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "回避：未发现足以认定退市或造假的证据，但收费权到期、持续资本开支、历史收购减值及普通股口径问题尚未排清，不把融资能力等同于投资安全。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 2.1805494984736153,
    "roe": 0.04991122715404701,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.022889288772845958,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 4.99%，权益乘数 2.18倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 2.29%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.04991122715404701,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.5414,
      "net_profit_ttm": 1180000000.0,
      "equity": 23641975308.64197,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.022889288772845958
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.2690188953488372,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.05722612966458658,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.16923896600000002,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.1055366245694604,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.10324047619047619,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.11191353674258703,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.06172585152838427,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.04991122715404701,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.04991122715404701,
  "channels": [],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：核心问题三：有没有会造成永久损失的治理或融资雷？",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/600548.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "600548",
    "name": "深高速（深圳高速公路集团股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "李录·风险管理层",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5）",
    "verdict": "回避：未发现足以认定退市或造假的证据，但收费权到期、持续资本开支、历史收购减值及普通股口径问题尚未排清，不把融资能力等同于投资安全。",
    "findings": [
      "核心问题一：管理层是否保护普通股股东，而非只做大资产？【事实】公司主营收费公路、清洁能源发电及固废资源化处理。2026年半年报商誉附注显示，深投控基建与南京风电形成的商誉账面原值合计358,932,906.44元，减值准备同额，期末净值为零；这属于已存在的累计减值，并非2026年上半年新增。2026年上半年归母净利润918,846,192.90元，但扣除永续债利息41,222,222.14元后，普通股股东合并净利润为877,623,970.76元。【观点】充分确认商誉减值、明确普通股收益口径有助透明度；反面是历史资本配置已有账面损失记录，不能直接把合并归母利润及含其他权益工具的净资产全部归给普通股股东。来源：2026年半年报商誉及净资产收益率附注，https://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600548&id=12536736。上述具体金额单源未交叉。",
      "核心问题二：十年后的盈利资产是否仍然存在？【事实】2026年上半年营收36.53亿元，同比下降6.78%；归母净利润9.19亿元，同比下降4.28%；扣非净利润10.01亿元，同比增长11.26%，经半年报与证券时报交叉。半年报披露路费收入同比下降8.8%，剔除水官高速收费到期影响后同口径增长3.3%；管理层业绩说明会称水官到期影响归母净利润约3100万元。公司批准的2026年下半年至2028年资本开支计划约149.76亿元，主要涉及机荷改扩建、外环项目及广深珠增资等。【观点】存续路产仍有增长，不能把到期影响误说为所有道路竞争力恶化；但收费权的期限损耗已经兑现，补充资产需要持续大额投入，低PB并不等于永久资产打折。来源：半年报同上；证券时报，https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/4120332.html；公司说明会纪要，http://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600548&id=12567985。资本开支计划另与蓝鲸报道交叉，https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1787707367549324807；水官净利润影响为管理层口径，单源未交叉。",
      "核心问题三：有没有会造成永久损失的治理或融资雷？【事实】2025年年报披露德勤华永出具标准无保留审计意见，未列示当期被实施退市或其他风险警示；2026年半年报本期违法违规处罚事项列“不适用”，期末无逾期银行及债券本息，资产负债率54.62%。股东表显示同受深圳国际控制的新通产、深广惠所持股份无质押；但持股9.57%的江苏云杉资本质押121,000,000股，不能笼统宣称大股东全部无质押。【观点】融资渠道和现有偿债记录是积极证据，不能据质押直接推断爆仓；反面是该非控股大股东质押安排的用途、期限及处置触发条件未核清，工程融资与环保业务回款亦需持续监控。国资背景只能改善融资条件，不能保证项目回报或普通股本金安全。来源：2025年年报，https://stockmc.xueqiu.com/202603/600548_20260326_EFNN.pdf；2026年半年报及说明会纪要同上。资产负债率在两份公司材料中一致，但并非独立来源交叉；审计、质押和逾期情况均按公司披露，单源未交叉。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "未核实江苏云杉质押的完整担保文件，不能断言存在或不存在爆仓风险；未完成环保项目应收账款可回收性、资产减值充分性及各改扩建项目全周期资本回报验证。2026年半年报未经审计，不能沿用2025年审计意见覆盖新期间。公司同时有A/H股及永续债，题设流通市值亿=143.155、PB=0.576、E/P=0.115未完成全股本、A/H价格及普通股权益口径校验，不据此建立目标价。检索结论限于已取得公告，不能作为没有其他监管事项的保证。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/600548.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "findings[2]",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "收费权风险"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "回避：未发现足以认定退市或造假的证据，但收费权到期、持续资本开支、历史收购减值及普通股口径问题尚未排清，不把融资能力等同于投资安全。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "回避：未发现足以认定退市或造假的证据，但收费权到期、持续资本开支、历史收购减值及普通股口径问题尚未排清，不把融资能力等同于投资安全。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}