{
  "code": "600563",
  "name": "法拉电子",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "被动元件",
  "quality_tier": "silver",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": true,
  "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
  "score": 4,
  "verdict": "待价格：低到中杠杆、持续扣非回报与现金质量较好，薄膜电容细分护城河成立；不为新能源叙事支付过高倍数。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": 0.2238014221758953,
    "turnover": 0.6439060896717625,
    "leverage": 1.461822503089207,
    "roe": 0.21065899961214446,
    "basis": "FY2025归母桥接（含少数权益影响）",
    "conclusion": "FY2025杜邦22.38%×0.644×1.462=21.07%，扣非平均权益ROE19.94%，非财务杠杆主导；与披露加权21.49%分母不同。全年CFO/归母1.07，显著好于面板0.012的混期代理，不能凭后者否决。"
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.19221415929203542,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.1906953947368421,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.2539100719424461,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.2884156438026474,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.2882540218470705,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.23481787109375002,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.22899307025986523,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.21562114093959728,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.1906953947368421,
  "channels": [
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "客户新能源资本开支同步放缓且降价，利润率和产能利用率双降。；关键薄膜技术代际改变或质量事故使长期认证优势失效。；扩产沉没成本和存货积压让账面ROE滞后反映现金恶化。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": 84.00161955809202,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": "深研条件价；全部人工验证仍须满足",
    "condition": "正常化利润保守端10.5亿元下总股权PE≤18倍，条件价约84.00元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 115.26,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 21.52,
    "dy": 0.02,
    "market_cap": 25933000000.0,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh600563",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "正常化利润保守端10.5亿元下总股权PE≤18倍，条件价约84.00元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
    "verify": "车用/储能新品价格与良率、前五客户集中度、存货跌价；三年CFO/利润≥0.9和新增产能ROIC，年度分红实际实施；目前低于阈值前不自动买入。",
    "anchor": "2026-09-30未复权收盘115.26元，总市值259.33亿元；正常化PE21.61—24.70倍。阈值是研究判断，无历史估值分位背书。",
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/600563.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "600563",
    "name": "法拉电子",
    "score": "4★",
    "verdict": "待价格：低到中杠杆、持续扣非回报与现金质量较好，薄膜电容细分护城河成立；不为新能源叙事支付过高倍数。",
    "roe_quality_note": "FY2025杜邦22.38%×0.644×1.462=21.07%，扣非平均权益ROE19.94%，非财务杠杆主导；与披露加权21.49%分母不同。全年CFO/归母1.07，显著好于面板0.012的混期代理，不能凭后者否决。",
    "quote": {
      "price": 115.26,
      "time": "20260930161456",
      "market_cap": 25933000000.0,
      "currency": "CNY",
      "source_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh600563",
      "source_count": 1,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T03:49:35.097448+00:00"
    },
    "facts_vs_opinion": "financial_facts/quote为来源事实与计算；business/management/growth/risk及估值阈值为研究判断，不是管理层预测或自动买入指令。",
    "roe_discovery": {
      "minimum": 0.1906953947368421,
      "mean": 0.2366151717392817,
      "basis": "2019—2026八月末TTM年度采样，非8个完整财年；面板未剔非经常损益，单源且有幸存者偏差"
    },
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600563&id=12026989",
        "source_count": 1,
        "type": "发行人年报新浪镜像，非独立第二源"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600563&id=12515499",
        "source_count": 1,
        "type": "发行人2026中报新浪镜像"
      }
    ],
    "financial_facts": {
      "revenue": 5326956051.66,
      "revenue_prev": 4771751247.83,
      "profit": 1192180340.23,
      "profit_prev": 1039196100.11,
      "adjusted_profit": 1128326066.75,
      "adjusted_profit_prev": 1023830576.68,
      "assets": 8728003185.19,
      "assets_prev": 7817751349.84,
      "equity": 6030250862.95,
      "equity_prev": 5288328855.22,
      "cfo": 1272639418.01,
      "cfo_prev": 1258335086.51,
      "capex": 544569730.46,
      "capex_prev": 390505747.48,
      "source_url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600563&id=12026989",
      "source_count": 1,
      "dupont": {
        "parent_net_margin": 0.2238014221758953,
        "asset_turnover": 0.6439060896717625,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.461822503089207,
        "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.21065899961214446,
        "adjusted_roe": 0.19937591020164303
      },
      "cfo_to_parent_profit": 1.067489015767931,
      "simple_fcf": 728069687.55,
      "period": "FY2025",
      "currency": "CNY",
      "H1_2026": {
        "source_url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600563&id=12515499",
        "revenue": 2763699647.8,
        "revenue_prev": 2499306915.58,
        "profit": 582137240.11,
        "profit_prev": 569421625.53,
        "cfo": 824529358.49,
        "cfo_prev": 859882551.63
      },
      "latest_ttm_parent_profit": 1204895954.8100002,
      "H1_profit_yoy": 0.022330754593601343,
      "H1_revenue_yoy": 0.10578642045594644
    },
    "dupont": {
      "parent_net_margin": 0.2238014221758953,
      "asset_turnover": 0.6439060896717625,
      "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.461822503089207,
      "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.21065899961214446,
      "adjusted_roe": 0.19937591020164303
    },
    "business": {
      "essence": "高可靠薄膜电容用于电力转换和储能，赚工艺一致性、寿命可靠性和客户认证的钱；不是靠电容数量增长就有定价权。",
      "moat": "长期认证、金属化薄膜/设计工艺、良率和交付建立切换成本。",
      "countercase": "光伏/车企持续降价会传导至零部件，竞争对手扩产与替代器件使技术优势不是永久租金。"
    },
    "management": {
      "assessment": "长期聚焦薄膜电容，2025研发1.8677亿元全部费用化、占收入3.51%，利润没有靠研发资本化托住；但需要审视扩产回报而非以固定资产增量当能力。",
      "capital_allocation": "2025CFO12.73亿元、购建长期资产5.45亿元，简单FCF7.28亿元；不是净利润11.92亿元都可分配，增长capex与维持性capex尚未拆分。"
    },
    "growth_valuation": {
      "growth": "新能源电力转换、储能、电网/数据中心提高器件需求；2026H1收入27.64亿元、利润5.82亿元，收入增而利润增速较低，说明价格/产品组合值得跟踪。",
      "normalization": "扣非FY2025为11.28亿元，2026H1利润只是温和增长，按10.5—12亿元净利情景，不给数据中心未证实订单额外利润。",
      "normalized_profit_cny": [
        1050000000.0,
        1200000000.0
      ],
      "normalization_status": "分析假设，非公司指引；不等于净现金流",
      "normalized_pe_range": [
        21.610833333333332,
        24.698095238095238
      ],
      "reported_ttm_pe_calculated": 21.52302022135129,
      "threshold_pe": 18,
      "conditional_price_cny": 84.00161955809202,
      "share_basis": "行情全股本总市值/同日报价反推每股锚；不用旧EPS或复权价格，已避免伯特利/豪迈转增口径错配。"
    },
    "buy_conditions": {
      "buy_when": "正常化利润保守端10.5亿元下总股权PE≤18倍，条件价约84.00元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
      "verify": "车用/储能新品价格与良率、前五客户集中度、存货跌价；三年CFO/利润≥0.9和新增产能ROIC，年度分红实际实施；目前低于阈值前不自动买入。",
      "anchor": "2026-09-30未复权收盘115.26元，总市值259.33亿元；正常化PE21.61—24.70倍。阈值是研究判断，无历史估值分位背书。"
    },
    "risk_death": [
      "客户新能源资本开支同步放缓且降价，利润率和产能利用率双降。",
      "关键薄膜技术代际改变或质量事故使长期认证优势失效。",
      "扩产沉没成本和存货积压让账面ROE滞后反映现金恶化。"
    ],
    "worst_case": "制造资产专用且清算打折，不能按净资产当股价底；假设正常利润8亿元重新压力估值。",
    "four_master_summary": {
      "巴菲特": "见business与dupont：护城河、经济回报与现金可持续性。",
      "芒格": "见management：资本配置、激励、并购与反面论据。",
      "费雪林奇": "见growth_valuation与buy_conditions：增长来源、正常化估值与验证条件。",
      "格雷厄姆烟蒂压力": "见worst_case与risk_death：本批不因高ROE认定净资产具有清算保护。"
    },
    "data_quality": {
      "financial_source_count": 1,
      "independent_double_source_verified": false,
      "status": "primary_source_grounded_with_explicit_valuation_assumptions",
      "quote_source": "Tencent独立行情仅验证价格，不是财报数字独立双源",
      "dupont_basis": "归母净利率(归母利润/合并收入) × 合并收入/平均合并总资产 × 平均合并总资产/平均归母权益；含少数权益结构影响，权益乘数不是纯有息债杠杆。用年初年末均值，不等于公司加权ROE。",
      "fcf_basis": "若有simple_fcf为合并CFO−购建长期资产现金；未扣收购/租赁全部本金、未剔增长capex、含NCI，不冒充归母可分配FCF。",
      "limits": [
        "财务为发行人单源，镜像/同发行人中报不构成独立双源。",
        "正常化盈利、买入倍数和压力情景为分析假设；未构建完整DCF、估值历史分位或收购逐笔IRR。",
        "2026中报后至研究时点全部公告未逐条覆盖，重大后续事项需执行前补查。"
      ]
    }
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json",
    "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json",
    "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
    "quote": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh600563"
  },
  "research_rating": 4,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": 37.2116,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [],
  "reject_reason": "",
  "reject_reason_source": "",
  "tracking_state": "tracking",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "价格与基本面",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "正常化利润保守端10.5亿元下总股权PE≤18倍，条件价约84.00元",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "车用/储能新品价格与良率、前五客户集中度、存货跌价",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "三年CFO/利润≥0.9和新增产能ROIC，年度分红实际实施",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "目前低于阈值前不自动买入。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}