{
  "code": "600694",
  "name": "大商股份",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "行业待核验",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "回避：租赁付款调整后的现金覆盖不足、控股股东较高比例质押及主业恢复偏弱，使账面折价和历史股息率不足以构成安全边际。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.8695083193120208,
    "roe": 0.056936456211812626,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.030455310427698577,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 5.69%，权益乘数 1.87倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 3.05%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.056936456211812626,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.46509999999999996,
      "net_profit_ttm": 501000000.0,
      "equity": 8799283154.121864,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.030455310427698577
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.13059109311740888,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.0632555431131019,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.0787066132264529,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.07500473684210525,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.05402422586520947,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.07245623762376238,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.0617556313993174,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.056936456211812626,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.05402422586520947,
  "channels": [
    "butt"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：核心问题一：盈利是持续衰退，还是已经恢复？",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/600694.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "600694",
    "name": "大商股份（大商股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "巴菲特·财务估值",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5）",
    "verdict": "回避：租赁付款调整后的现金覆盖不足、控股股东较高比例质押及主业恢复偏弱，使账面折价和历史股息率不足以构成安全边际。",
    "findings": [
      "核心问题一：盈利是持续衰退，还是已经恢复？【事实】公司经营购物中心、百货、生鲜超市、专业电器店等，拥有麦凯乐、新玛特、大商超市等商号。2025年营收62.02亿元，同比下降10.75%；归母净利润4.91亿元，下降16.31%；扣非净利润4.25亿元，下降20.92%；加权ROE为5.58%。2026年上半年营收34.40亿元、归母净利润3.85亿元，同比分别增长0.69%、0.32%。【观点】中报止跌是反对持续恶化判断的重要证据，但接近零增长还不足以证明零售竞争力重建，更不能用高毛利率替代资本回报。最重要发现：盈利暂时企稳，而非已验证的强劲复苏。来源：2025年年报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600694&id=12162250 ；2026年半年报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600694&id=12574401 ；半年数据与观点网报道交叉 https://i.ifeng.com/c/8w1CsZlV5B7 。2025年数据单源未交叉。",
      "核心问题二：分红究竟由自由现金流覆盖，还是消耗存量资金？【事实】2025年经营现金流4.61亿元，同比下降57.18%；购建固定资产等现金支出0.89亿元；筹资活动中另有租赁付款4.61亿元。按原文金额计算，经营现金流减资本开支约3.71亿元，再扣筹资分类的租赁付款后约-0.90亿元；这只是合并口径租赁调整现金近似值，不是归母所有者收益。2025年度利润分配预案现金额3.44亿元、分红比例70.19%；2026年上半年经营现金流2.74亿元，同比增长10.68%，仍低于归母净利润3.85亿元。【观点】公司存量货币资金提供缓冲，但不能用经营现金流直接宣称分红稳固，遗漏租赁付款会明显高估可分配现金；送股也不创造额外价值。最重要发现：用户给定cf/np=1.932并非2025年度口径，2025年经营现金流/归母净利润实际约0.94。来源：2025年年报现金流量表及附注78、分配预案，2026年半年报，链接同上；租赁付款、资本开支及分红预案单源未交叉，计算值据原文工具计算。",
      "核心问题三：账面资产与大股东风险能否支持安全边际？【事实】2025年报获大华标准无保留意见；2026年半年报对涉嫌违法违规、受到处罚及整改事项勾选不适用。半年末大商集团持股30.45%，质押4,952万股；2026年6月10日公告披露累计质押占其持股42.93%，新增质押融资用于集团及其下属子公司经营周转。2025年末存货52.62亿元，同比增加11.98%。【观点】持续盈利和无保留意见是正面因素，但股东融资需求、存货可回收性和零售现金生成偏弱均应折价处理；不能把全部存货当作滞销商品，也不能仅凭质押比例声称已经爆仓。最重要发现：质押风险客观存在，而贷款余额、追加担保能力和实际平仓条款尚不清楚，按烟蒂排雷纪律不予放行。本次未取得已实施股票退市风险警示的证据。来源：上述年报与半年报；股权解押及再质押公告 https://file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97:9494/MRGG/CNSESH_STOCK/2026/2026-6/2026-06-10/12381705.PDF 。质押股数与半年报、观点网报道相互核对，但均源于公司披露；存货数字单源未交叉。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "未取得质押合同的实际预警线、平仓线、股东整体债务及偿债资金，不能采用媒体模型推测的触线结论。未完成2026年半年报后全部监管及项目投资公告核验；存货构成、可变现净值压力测试、自有物业可出售价值及未来租赁现金支出仍缺系统验证。用户PB=0.621、股息率=0.069等为未核验筛选快照，未据此计算实时目标价或安全边际；毛利率字段单位存疑。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/600694.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "findings[0]",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "治理疑点",
    "现金转换"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "回避：租赁付款调整后的现金覆盖不足、控股股东较高比例质押及主业恢复偏弱，使账面折价和历史股息率不足以构成安全边际。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "回避：租赁付款调整后的现金覆盖不足、控股股东较高比例质押及主业恢复偏弱，使账面折价和历史股息率不足以构成安全边际。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}