{
  "code": "600827",
  "name": "百联股份",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "行业待核验",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "回避：核心资产有价值，但经常性盈利薄弱，土地处置和拟调整并表范围尚不能证明零售商业模式已经恢复。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 2.454590083456063,
    "roe": 0.06159746434231379,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.025094806973058638,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 6.16%，权益乘数 2.45倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 2.51%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.06159746434231379,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.5926,
      "net_profit_ttm": 1230000000.0,
      "equity": 19968354430.379745,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.025094806973058638
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.053889908256880725,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.03451920668058455,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.05843532467532468,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.0070948207171314705,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.041584569732937685,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.01925814536340852,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.08588564135290365,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.06159746434231379,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.0070948207171314705,
  "channels": [
    "butt"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：2025年营收247.85亿元、下降10.44%，2026年上半年营收120.53亿元、再下降9.08%。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/600827.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "600827",
    "name": "百联股份（上海百联集团股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "段永平·商业模式",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5，烟蒂投资适配度）",
    "verdict": "回避：核心资产有价值，但经常性盈利薄弱，土地处置和拟调整并表范围尚不能证明零售商业模式已经恢复。",
    "findings": [
      "核心问题一：顾客为什么持续选择它，优势能否转为利润？【事实】主业是百货商店、连锁超市、购物中心和奥特莱斯，采用联营联销、经销、租赁等模式；拥有第一八佰伴、青浦奥莱等资产与品牌。2025年营收247.85亿元、下降10.44%，2026年上半年营收120.53亿元、再下降9.08%。【观点】核心商圈、奥莱品牌和物业资源提供局部竞争优势；反面是整体销售持续收缩，不能将地段优势自动视为全公司定价权。缺乏同店销售、续租租金、客流转化及增量资本回报的完整证据，无法证明改造投入可以持续创造高回报。来源：2025年年报 https://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=900923&id=12090131 ；2026年半年报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600827&id=12569525 ；中报交叉报道 https://www.sohu.com/a/1069466863_115377 。半年营收有公告与报道交叉；商业模式及年度数据以公司披露为主，单源未交叉。",
      "核心问题二：赚的是顾客的钱，还是出售资产的钱？【事实】2025年归母净利润6.31亿元，但扣非仅1.035亿元，占归母利润约16.4%；扣非ROE仅0.52%。2026年上半年归母利润9.13亿元、增长191.61%，扣非利润1.984亿元、仅增长7.32%；非经常性损益7.145亿元，占归母利润约78.27%，公司明确将利润大增主要归因于共青路地块收储。同期经营现金流净额为负3.01亿元。【观点】资产变现是真实价值兑现，不应全部否定；但不能把一次性土地收益资本化成永续盈利，也不能把半年季节性负现金流直接认定为造假。题设E/P=10%缺乏扣非验证，无法代表零售主业收益率。来源：上述2025年年报及2026年半年报；2026年中报净利润有上述证券之星报道交叉，扣非、现金流与非经常性损益为单源未交叉，占比为工具计算。",
      "核心问题三：重组是在改善生意，还是只改变报表？【事实】2026年半年报披露拟终止对百联集团所持联华超市股份的受托管理，实施后可行使表决权比例由56.66%降至15.15%，联华超市将不再并表；该交易构成重大资产重组及关联交易，8月28日董事会通过草案，报告披露时仍需后续程序。正面是有望减轻超市业务对合并经营表现的拖累；反面是不再并表并不自动产生现金收益，且剩余参股风险、交易安排和未来可比利润须重算。排雷方面，2025年德勤华永出具标准无保留审计意见，2026年半年报处罚整改项为不适用，控股股东百联集团持股47.62%、质押标记冻结栏为“无”。【观点】未见立即退市或控股股东质押爆仓信号，当前更突出的是商业模式回报不足，而非已被证实的财务造假。来源：上述两份定期报告；半年报PDF https://stockmc.xueqiu.com/202608/600827_20260829_LUU6.pdf 。重组、审计及股东风险信息均来自公司披露，单源未交叉。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "尚未核实联华超市终止托管交易截至研究日的最终审批及交割状态，也未取得按新并表范围计算的完整持续经营自由现金流。缺少奥莱与传统百货、超市分别对应的投入资本回报、维护资本开支及租赁本金偿付。百联为A+B股公司，题设流通市值不能不经核对就与全部股东权益、利润匹配；准确估值应采用同日股价及A/B股本并统一币种，或以A股价格除以全股本口径每股指标。未发现ST/*ST的正面证据不等于完成全部退市风险排除；目前按主业质量及信息缺口判回避。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/600827.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "findings[0]",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "利润成色"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "回避：核心资产有价值，但经常性盈利薄弱，土地处置和拟调整并表范围尚不能证明零售商业模式已经恢复。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "回避：核心资产有价值，但经常性盈利薄弱，土地处置和拟调整并表范围尚不能证明零售商业模式已经恢复。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}