{
  "code": "600885",
  "name": "宏发股份",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "低压设备",
  "quality_tier": "bronze",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": true,
  "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
  "score": 3,
  "verdict": "3★挂疑点：继电器工艺护城河可信，但少数权益、转股摊薄与现金流骤降阻止升级。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": 0.13597013958166215,
    "turnover": 0.7814233095058924,
    "leverage": 1.5420025676664724,
    "roe": 0.1638381374455577,
    "basis": "FY2025合并简单平均权益杜邦；非加权归母ROE",
    "conclusion": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率13.60%×资产周转0.781×权益乘数1.542=16.38%；期初/期末合并权益乘数1.648/1.459。归母两点平均权益ROE15.88%，扣非同分母14.84%；不冒充披露加权ROE。必须处理少数股东：2025合并利润23.39亿元但归母17.58亿元，合并权益与归母权益不可混除。可转债转股扩充权益、2025送转调整EPS，报告加权ROE17.23%不等于简单均值归母15.88%；扣非简单均值仅14.84%。2026H1 CFO只有1.14亿元而归母11.56亿元，不能凭高ROE认证现金质量。"
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.16531244635193135,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.15253210227272726,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.19086778846153848,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.19918306679209782,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.19445967999999997,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.1884221105527638,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.1962494175352545,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.19111774744027307,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.15253210227272726,
  "channels": [
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "替代技术和汽车客户降价侵蚀高可靠性溢价；扩品扩产占款、存货和应收恶化；核心子公司利润含大额少数股东权益，合并现金不可全部归上市股东",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于15亿元，估值≤20倍（保守对应总市值≤300亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 33.53,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 26.62,
    "dy": 0.0103,
    "market_cap": 51891000000.0,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh600885",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于15亿元，估值≤20倍（保守对应总市值≤300亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。",
    "verify": "连续季度CFO恢复及采购占款回落；子公司分红上行到母公司、少数股东分配；转股后完全摊薄每股FCF；新门类资本回报。",
    "anchor": "2026-09-30行情33.53元；扣非TTM PE 28.54倍；正常化压力情景利润15—19亿元对应PE 27.31—34.59倍。0.347元参考DPS/股价=1.03%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。",
    "source": [
      "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600885&id=12054908",
      "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600885&id=12467659",
      "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555"
    ]
  },
  "research_file": "research/600885.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "600885",
    "name": "宏发股份",
    "score": "★★★☆☆（3★挂疑点）",
    "verdict": "3★挂疑点：继电器工艺护城河可信，但少数权益、转股摊薄与现金流骤降阻止升级。",
    "roe_quality_note": "FY2025标准合并杜邦：净利率13.60%×资产周转0.781×权益乘数1.542=16.38%；期初/期末合并权益乘数1.648/1.459。归母两点平均权益ROE15.88%，扣非同分母14.84%；不冒充披露加权ROE。必须处理少数股东：2025合并利润23.39亿元但归母17.58亿元，合并权益与归母权益不可混除。可转债转股扩充权益、2025送转调整EPS，报告加权ROE17.23%不等于简单均值归母15.88%；扣非简单均值仅14.84%。2026H1 CFO只有1.14亿元而归母11.56亿元，不能凭高ROE认证现金质量。",
    "as_of": "2026-10-02",
    "business_and_moat": "【事实】继电器及相关电气元件，2025收入增21.98%而归母仅增7.76%；2026H1收入增32.05%、归母增19.89%。【判断】小元件但故障成本高，可靠性、工艺一致性、自动化和认证形成壁垒，十年后电气开关需求仍在；竞争来自欧姆龙、松下等，客户年降和固态替代限制提价权。",
    "management_and_capital_allocation": "长期制造能力投入较可理解，跨门类战略需防资本摊薄。2025末期每股0.347元方案、2026H1无分红预案；2025可转债转股使年末股本约15.48亿，不能把转股后股价除旧加权EPS。母公司对核心子公司现金分配依赖和少数股东利益必须穿透；未证实回购及全部历史投资回报。",
    "growth_and_valuation": {
      "quote": {
        "price": 33.53,
        "timestamp": "20260930161451",
        "pe_ttm_vendor": "26.62",
        "market_cap_yi": "518.91"
      },
      "quote_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555",
      "basis": "腾讯总市值/全公司归母利润；未用流通市值或复权价。",
      "reported_2025_pe": 29.524996712430934,
      "recurring_ttm_pe": 28.53702747341095,
      "recurring_ttm_np_yi": 18.1837439265,
      "normalized_scenario": {
        "parent_np_yi_range": [
          15,
          19
        ],
        "pe_range": [
          27.311052631578946,
          34.594
        ],
        "status": "研究者保守压力情景，不是已验证正常化盈利预测；扣非TTM也不是周期中枢。",
        "rationale": "新能源、电网、汽车及国际份额带来需求；但归母利润增速落后收入、资本开支占款和转股摊薄降低每股复利。"
      },
      "dividend": {
        "dps_cny": 0.347,
        "reference_yield_pct": 1.0348941246644796,
        "basis": "2025年报末期方案单次DPS，不声称全年或TTM；实施日期未单独核验",
        "ttm_actual_paid_yield_pct": null,
        "limitation": "未完整核验所有分派实施公告及同股本TTM桥接，不把参考方案股息率当已实现TTM收益率；2026中期未认证支付的方案不计入。"
      }
    },
    "buy_conditions": {
      "buy_when": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于15亿元，估值≤20倍（保守对应总市值≤300亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑；当前不视为触发。",
      "verify": "连续季度CFO恢复及采购占款回落；子公司分红上行到母公司、少数股东分配；转股后完全摊薄每股FCF；新门类资本回报。",
      "anchor": "2026-09-30行情33.53元；扣非TTM PE 28.54倍；正常化压力情景利润15—19亿元对应PE 27.31—34.59倍。0.347元参考DPS/股价=1.03%，仅限所列分红口径，非已核TTM。",
      "source": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600885&id=12054908",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600885&id=12467659",
        "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555"
      ],
      "manual": true
    },
    "risks_and_premortem": [
      "替代技术和汽车客户降价侵蚀高可靠性溢价",
      "扩品扩产占款、存货和应收恶化",
      "核心子公司利润含大额少数股东权益，合并现金不可全部归上市股东"
    ],
    "financial_facts_cny": {
      "fy2025": {
        "revenue": 17202480686.91,
        "parent_np": 1757527714.75,
        "recurring_parent_np": 1642604139.69,
        "cfo": 2968662719.38,
        "assets_end": 23364096633.21,
        "assets_start": 20664486793.07,
        "parent_equity_end": 12630510893.72,
        "parent_equity_start": 9504175370.84,
        "consolidated_np": 2339023700.15,
        "total_equity_end": 16010465166.2,
        "total_equity_start": 12542394828.65
      },
      "dupont": {
        "consolidated_net_margin_pct": 13.597013958166215,
        "asset_turnover": 0.7814233095058924,
        "equity_multiplier": 1.5420025676664724,
        "consolidated_roe_pct": 16.38381374455577,
        "parent_margin_pct": 10.216710872911298,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.9891216392244273,
        "parent_roe_simple_pct": 15.880303824897576,
        "recurring_parent_roe_simple_pct": 14.841901259020645,
        "equity_multiplier_start": 1.6475710640098085,
        "equity_multiplier_end": 1.459301549997085
      },
      "h1_2026": {
        "revenue": 11022043268.08,
        "parent_np": 1155954728.38,
        "recurring_parent_np": 1102467072.47,
        "cfo": 114153950.74,
        "prior_h1_recurring_parent_np": 926696819.51
      },
      "recurring_ttm_np": 1818374392.6499999,
      "recurring_ttm_pe": 28.53702747341095,
      "cfo_to_parent_np_2025": 1.6891128910603144,
      "cfo_to_parent_np_h1": 0.09875295972877743,
      "h1_parent_dupont_not_annualized": {
        "parent_net_margin_pct": 10.487662770546928,
        "asset_turnover": 0.4494760609491349,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.8977729159897965,
        "parent_roe_simple_pct": 8.946012996137698,
        "recurring_parent_roe_simple_pct": 8.53206835526548,
        "basis": "归母净利率×营收/平均合并资产×平均合并资产/平均归母权益，代数桥接；不是标准全合并杜邦。"
      }
    },
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600885&id=12054908",
        "title": "2025年年度报告全文",
        "source_quality": "发行人公告，新浪镜像；单源",
        "sections": [
          "主要会计数据",
          "管理层讨论",
          "利润分配",
          "合并资产负债表",
          "合并利润表",
          "财务附注"
        ],
        "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/600885-2025.txt"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=600885&id=12467659",
        "title": "2026年半年度报告全文",
        "source_quality": "同一发行人公告，非独立双源",
        "sections": [
          "主要会计数据",
          "非经常性损益",
          "管理层讨论",
          "财务附注"
        ],
        "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/600885-2026H1.txt"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sz002050,sz002463,sz300124,sz000651,sz002847,sz300628,sh600885,sz300724,sz002555",
        "title": "腾讯行情原始响应",
        "source_quality": "行情单源；时间2026-09-30，不能称10月2日成交",
        "local_evidence": "/root/value-invest/results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2-evidence/quotes.txt"
      }
    ],
    "limitations": [
      "财务数字来自实际读取年报及半年报，发行人单源；未完成独立双源核验。",
      "ROE拆解采用期初期末均值，与加权平均ROE不同；包含少数权益的合并与归母分开计算。",
      "九家均不因量化八年ROE门槛自动认证护城河；全市场面板有幸存者偏差。",
      "分红/回购/乱投资历史未穷尽；没有发现完整证据不等于没有风险。",
      "正常化区间和买入倍数是研究判断/门槛，不是事实、公允价格认证或投资建议。"
    ]
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json",
    "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json",
    "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch2.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
    "quote": "腾讯行情；见原始深研来源"
  },
  "research_rating": 3,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [],
  "reject_reason": "",
  "reject_reason_source": "",
  "tracking_state": "observing",
  "verification_kind": "price_line",
  "verification_reason": "已深研；数值价格线待核，不等于深研否决",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "仅在核验正常化归母利润不低于15亿元，估值≤20倍（保守对应总市值≤300亿元）且以下现金/经营条件同时满足时考虑",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "当前不视为触发。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "连续季度CFO恢复及采购占款回落",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "子公司分红上行到母公司、少数股东分配",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "转股后完全摊薄每股FCF",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "新门类资本回报。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}