{
  "code": "601033",
  "name": "永兴股份",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "环保BOT",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "回避：区域垃圾处理业务具备经营基础，但流通市值造成伪低PB，补贴回款、资本密集度及部分股东冻结质押风险不支持按烟蒂买入。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 2.3239600278875203,
    "roe": 0.0852862950058072,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.03669869274099884,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 8.53%，权益乘数 2.32倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 3.67%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.0852862950058072,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.5697,
      "net_profit_ttm": 901000000.0,
      "equity": 10564417177.91411,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.03669869274099884
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.08885537414965987,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.08568574908647991,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.0852862950058072,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.0852862950058072,
  "channels": [],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：核心问题二：什么最可能损害长期价值？",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/601033.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "601033",
    "name": "永兴股份（广州环投永兴集团股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "芒格·行业竞争",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5，烟蒂投资适配度，不代表退市概率）",
    "verdict": "回避：区域垃圾处理业务具备经营基础，但流通市值造成伪低PB，补贴回款、资本密集度及部分股东冻结质押风险不支持按烟蒂买入。",
    "findings": [
      "核心问题一：区域优势能否转化为定价权？【事实】主业为垃圾焚烧发电、生物质综合处理，并延伸至供热、医疗废弃物和炉渣处理。2026年中报披露控股运营16个垃圾焚烧发电项目，设计处理能力34,690吨/日；公司引用行业年鉴称，其2024年广东省内项目垃圾处理量约占全省24%。2026年上半年收入22.53亿元、归母净利润5.22亿元，分别增长9.10%、13.24%，没有出现整体主业萎缩。【观点】项目布局、运营经验和区域规模构成优势；反面是垃圾处理费、电价及补贴并非企业可自由提价，区域份额不能等同于强定价权。来源：2026年中报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601033&id=12535369 （单源未交叉，市场份额为公司引用口径）。",
      "核心问题二：什么最可能损害长期价值？【事实】2026年6月底应收账款29.89亿元，2025年底为27.01亿元；长期借款89.50亿元。上半年经营现金流净额9.48亿元，购建长期资产现金支出3.15亿元。公司明确列示应收账款回收、电价补贴政策和税收优惠变化风险。【观点】现金流为正是支持项，但不能因此忽略账款沉淀和长期借款；电价补贴下降、回款拖延与环保改造投入叠加，可能削弱权益回报。垃圾焚烧资产专用性强，账面价值不等于可变现清算价值。来源：同一2026年中报财务报表及风险章节（单源未交叉）。",
      "核心问题三：低估值是否真实、治理是否过关？【事实】2025年年报总股本9亿股；2026年中报列示限售股分别为651,043,223股、6,298,904股和2,657,873股，合计6.6亿股，流通股2.4亿股。若题给PB和E/P确以流通市值除以全公司权益及利润，且筛选日股本结构相同，则应按3.75倍纠偏：总市值约127.53亿元，PB由0.322变为约1.208，E/P由26.5%降为约7.07%。这是条件性口径纠偏，不是已核实的当前估值。2025年审计为广东中职信标准无保留意见；2026年中报违规处罚、资金占用及违规担保项目未披露适用事项。但科学城投资持有的2,850万股全部冻结，控股股东一致行动人环劲合伙持有的6,298,904股全部质押；控股股东本身所持股份状态为无。【观点】不能把小股东冻结误称为控股股东爆仓，也不能把国有背景当作风险豁免。来源：2025年年报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601033&id=12030926 ；2026年中报同上。股本和股东状态单源未交叉；审计意见另在巨潮同份年报镜像核对，非独立审计交叉。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "尚未取得题给估值的准确交易日、同日未复权价格及完整分母来源，因此纠偏值不能视作最新PB。冻结原因、质押融资条款及平仓线未核实。未完成2026年中报披露日至9月28日的全部监管与临时公告排查，不能给出绝对无ST、无处罚结论。题给“10年ROE中位”不代表已验证十年上市历史，且毛利率0.397的单位定义未确认。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/601033.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "findings[1]",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "治理疑点",
    "估值口径",
    "现金转换"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "回避：区域垃圾处理业务具备经营基础，但流通市值造成伪低PB，补贴回款、资本密集度及部分股东冻结质押风险不支持按烟蒂买入。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "回避：区域垃圾处理业务具备经营基础，但流通市值造成伪低PB，补贴回款、资本密集度及部分股东冻结质押风险不支持按烟蒂买入。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}