{
  "code": "601083",
  "name": "锦江航运",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "航运",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "回避：85%左右限售股使超低PB和超高E/P严重失真，国资控股、分红与现金流优势不足以替代对航运周期、扩船投资及关联交易的安全边际审查。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.2608750472828143,
    "roe": 0.16386093333333335,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.12995810622666668,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 16.39%，权益乘数 1.26倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 13.00%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.16386093333333335,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.2069,
      "net_profit_ttm": 1478000000.0,
      "equity": 9019843656.043295,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.12995810622666668
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.08520080753701212,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.1795839373163565,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.16386093333333335,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.08520080753701212,
  "channels": [
    "cycle"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：【事实】2026年上半年营业收入37.22亿元，同比增长10.16%；归母净利润7.51亿元，同比下降5.43%；经营现金流13.74亿元，同比增长9.28%。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/601083.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "601083",
    "name": "锦江航运（上海锦江航运〔集团〕股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "李录·风险管理层",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5，烟蒂投资适配度，不代表管理层诚信定罪）",
    "verdict": "回避：85%左右限售股使超低PB和超高E/P严重失真，国资控股、分红与现金流优势不足以替代对航运周期、扩船投资及关联交易的安全边际审查。",
    "findings": [
      "核心问题一：买到的是折价资产，还是错误的市值分母？【事实】公司主营国际、国内海上集装箱运输。2026年中报总股本1,294,120,000股，其中上港集团1,078,000,000股、其全资子公司国客中心22,000,000股均为限售股，合计11亿股；可流通部分194,120,000股。若题给估值使用流通市值且筛选日股本结构相同，纠偏倍数约6.6666：总市值约143.65亿元，PB由0.239变为约1.593，E/P由68.6%降为约10.29%。这不是同日行情重算，只是对原筛选错误的条件性修正。两股东限售股可上市交易日期列为2027年6月5日，非交易日顺延。【观点】最重要的排雷结果不是发现造假，而是烟蒂入池依据不成立。来源：2026年中报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601083&id=12559981 （股本、解禁日单源未交叉）。",
      "核心问题二：管理层是否尊重少数股东、关联交易是否可控？【事实】2025年年报披露普华永道中天出具标准无保留意见，全年分红方案合计10.51亿元、占归母净利润70.04%。2026年中报未披露适用的非经营性资金占用、违规担保、重大诉讼及违法违规处罚事项；上港集团、国客中心股份均无质押标记冻结。另一方面，上半年向中石油上港能源采购燃料4.31亿元、接受上港集团及其控制企业劳务2.65亿元，均披露为市场价格定价。【观点】分红和股权质押状态是正面证据；反面是控股股东及一致行动人高度集中，港口资源协同伴随关联交易依赖，披露“市场价格”仍不等于完成独立公允性验证。来源：2025年年报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601083&id=12052693 ；2026年中报同上（上述治理、审计和交易数字单源未交叉）。",
      "核心问题三：资本配置能否承受行业下行？【事实】2026年上半年营业收入37.22亿元，同比增长10.16%；归母净利润7.51亿元，同比下降5.43%；经营现金流13.74亿元，同比增长9.28%。这些主要业绩数字与腾讯转载观点网报道一致。公司继续推进新船建造，区域精品航线是其差异化定位。【观点】现金创造和区域运营能力值得肯定，但收入增长而利润下降说明利润并非无周期；扩船将增加未来固定资产、折旧和运力消化压力。不能把当前盈利或经营现金流直接当成十年可分配利润，更不能把融资租赁及未来造船付款义务忽略为“无风险净现金”。来源：2026年中报同上；交叉报道 https://view.inews.qq.com/a/20260827A0BWLB00 ；扩船报道 https://www.sohu.com/a/1069033617_122014422 （报道依赖公司披露，不构成独立审计）。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "缺题给估值日、同日未复权价格和完整TTM利润分母。未逐笔核验造船付款承诺、租赁负债与可自由支配现金，也未独立验证关联交易公允性。未完成中报后全部监管公告检索，未发现风险不等于证明不存在风险。题给十年ROE序列的样本长度、上市前数据及填充方式未验证。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/601083.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "findings[2]",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "估值口径",
    "现金转换"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "回避：85%左右限售股使超低PB和超高E/P严重失真，国资控股、分红与现金流优势不足以替代对航运周期、扩船投资及关联交易的安全边际审查。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "回避：85%左右限售股使超低PB和超高E/P严重失真，国资控股、分红与现金流优势不足以替代对航运周期、扩船投资及关联交易的安全边际审查。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}