{
  "code": "601100",
  "name": "恒立液压",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "机械基础件",
  "quality_tier": "bronze",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": true,
  "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch1.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
  "score": 3,
  "verdict": "候补等价格与新产能回报：液压国产替代能力可信、杠杆低，但工程机械周期和新业务资本开支不能由机器人想象替代现金验证。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": 0.2504067225004482,
    "turnover": 0.529708571424464,
    "leverage": 1.2455270529681088,
    "roe": 0.16520993079654747,
    "basis": "FY2025合并简单平均权益杜邦；非加权归母ROE",
    "conclusion": "FY2025同口径合并杜邦：净利率25.04%×资产周转0.530次×平均总权益乘数1.246倍＝合并简单平均权益ROE16.52%；归母简单平均ROE16.54%，报表加权ROE16.63%。2026H1期末合并乘数1.324倍。低杠杆制造技术质量叠加周期：25.04%合并净利率、1.25倍平均杠杆；扣非简单ROE约15.10%接近门槛，金融收益对边际ROE有贡献。"
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.248952210274791,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.3023111111111111,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.4124765306122449,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.2854040831477357,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.24741357234314984,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.1875731092436975,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.17754683140693503,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.16836810534016095,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.16836810534016095,
  "channels": [
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "【死法】挖机与海外订单下行→原有工厂利用率下降→新增海外/丝杠产线折旧叠加→库存减值与低回报长期化；电液/电动执行替代若失配，会影响技术位置。；【最坏情况】2025金融资产相关非经常税前收益约2.71亿元、非经常净额约2.39亿元；不能把扣非前ROE稳定当主业无周期。设备清算折价与新项目沉没成本无法靠低财务杠杆完全避免。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": 29.83,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": "深研条件价；全部人工验证仍须满足",
    "condition": "正常化PE≤20倍，新业务不赋予未验证利润溢价；下游周期及新产能回报全部通过后才评审。",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 90.31,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 44.17,
    "dy": 0.0095,
    "market_cap": 121090000000.00002,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh601100",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "正常化PE≤20倍，新业务不赋予未验证利润溢价；下游周期及新产能回报全部通过后才评审。",
    "verify": "解释2026收入增幅与利润背离，主业扣非盈利稳定；分别核海外/丝杠项目利用率、客户验收、折旧和ROIC；跨周期现金差覆盖分红，不依赖金融投资收益。",
    "anchor": "研究者正常化归母盈利情景20—25亿元（不是预测/已认证事实）；正常化PE≤20倍按区间下沿给统一估值总额上限400亿元，依本次报价股本代理对应≤29.83元/股。当前正常化情景PE约48.44—60.55倍；当前股息率行情代理0.95%，并未通过已付与可持续性核验。股本变化须重算，A/H公司只是A股每股支付价格门槛。",
    "source": [
      "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12118901",
      "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12525669",
      "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh601100"
    ]
  },
  "research_file": "research/601100.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "601100",
    "name": "恒立液压",
    "score": "★★★☆☆（3/5）",
    "verdict": "候补等价格与新产能回报：液压国产替代能力可信、杠杆低，但工程机械周期和新业务资本开支不能由机器人想象替代现金验证。",
    "roe_quality_note": "FY2025同口径合并杜邦：净利率25.04%×资产周转0.530次×平均总权益乘数1.246倍＝合并简单平均权益ROE16.52%；归母简单平均ROE16.54%，报表加权ROE16.63%。2026H1期末合并乘数1.324倍。低杠杆制造技术质量叠加周期：25.04%合并净利率、1.25倍平均杠杆；扣非简单ROE约15.10%接近门槛，金融收益对边际ROE有贡献。",
    "as_of": "2026-10-02",
    "research_type": "ROE质量通道四大师深研第1批",
    "status": "候补挂疑点",
    "rating_is_research_opinion": true,
    "watchlist_changed": false,
    "buffett": {
      "analysis": [
        "【事实】液压油缸、泵阀、系统及铸件，服务全球工程机械主机厂；公司年报披露墨西哥基地投产、线性驱动产品放量及泵阀拓展。",
        "【观点】可靠性、精密加工、规模制造、主机厂认证与联合开发形成切换成本，十年高端液压仍有需求；进入外资供应链有价值，但大客户采购及工程机械竞争限制提价。",
        "【反证】国际领先液压厂与国内同行的技术迭代持续，工程机械和出口高度周期化；机器人丝杠不等同已有成熟液压壁垒，不能用未量产领域为全部利润提估值。"
      ],
      "sources": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12118901",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12525669"
      ],
      "source_status": "发行人披露经新浪镜像；单源，未经独立经营资料交叉验证",
      "facts_vs_opinions": "条目标明事实/观点/假设/风险情景；管理层自述不等于独立验证"
    },
    "munger": {
      "analysis": [
        "【事实】2025CFO18.11亿元、购建9.24亿元，现金差8.87亿元，低于年度方案现金分红11.53亿元；年报年度每股0.56元并有中期分红。",
        "【资本配置】从油缸向泵阀延伸较有产业协同，历史收购德国茵莱与海外研发/制造布局可理解；但海外厂、超大重型油缸、线性驱动器项目的增量回报尚待验证。回购现金项为0，不给不存在的注销增厚加分。",
        "【反证】新业务多点投入可能使原来的高资本回报下降；不能将全额购建现金当维持性开支，也不能全视为可自由取消的成长支出。管理层长期资产回报未独立重建。"
      ],
      "sources": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12118901",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12525669"
      ],
      "source_status": "发行人披露经新浪镜像；单源，未经独立经营资料交叉验证",
      "facts_vs_opinions": "条目标明事实/观点/假设/风险情景；管理层自述不等于独立验证"
    },
    "fisher_lynch": {
      "analysis": [
        "【事实】2025营收109.41亿元、归母27.34亿元；2026H1收入+32.13%而归母仅+0.50%、扣非-5.01%。收入增长未兑现利润增厚是需要解释的事实。",
        "【正常化假设】2023—2025扣非约24.47/22.85/24.95亿元，采用20—25亿元跨周期区间，机器人期权不计入底层估值；若新产能持续低回报则下调。"
      ],
      "sources": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12118901",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12525669"
      ],
      "source_status": "发行人披露经新浪镜像；单源，未经独立经营资料交叉验证",
      "facts_vs_opinions": "条目标明事实/观点/假设/风险情景；管理层自述不等于独立验证"
    },
    "graham": {
      "analysis": [
        "【死法】挖机与海外订单下行→原有工厂利用率下降→新增海外/丝杠产线折旧叠加→库存减值与低回报长期化；电液/电动执行替代若失配，会影响技术位置。",
        "【最坏情况】2025金融资产相关非经常税前收益约2.71亿元、非经常净额约2.39亿元；不能把扣非前ROE稳定当主业无周期。设备清算折价与新项目沉没成本无法靠低财务杠杆完全避免。"
      ],
      "sources": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12118901",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12525669"
      ],
      "source_status": "发行人披露经新浪镜像；单源，未经独立经营资料交叉验证",
      "facts_vs_opinions": "条目标明事实/观点/假设/风险情景；管理层自述不等于独立验证"
    },
    "roe_quality": {
      "assessment": "低杠杆制造技术质量叠加周期：25.04%合并净利率、1.25倍平均杠杆；扣非简单ROE约15.10%接近门槛，金融收益对边际ROE有贡献。",
      "fy2025": {
        "revenue": 10941028858.98,
        "parent_np": 2734121067.32,
        "adjusted_np": 2495371026.73,
        "cfo": 1810946160.52,
        "parent_equity": 17279845888.73,
        "parent_equity_start": 15774716902.67,
        "assets_end": 21670965419.64,
        "assets_start": 19638650656.83,
        "consolidated_np": 2739707177.36,
        "liabilities_end": 4332970537.06,
        "liabilities_start": 3810271530.89,
        "dupont": {
          "net_margin_pct": 25.04067225004482,
          "asset_turnover": 0.529708571424464,
          "equity_multiplier": 1.2455270529681088,
          "consolidated_roe_pct": 16.520993079654748,
          "parent_roe_simple_pct": 16.543078089245533,
          "parent_bridge_multiplier": 1.2497402049201438,
          "end_consolidated_multiplier": 1.2499118592665792,
          "end_parent_bridge_multiplier": 1.2541179799395035,
          "adjusted_parent_roe_simple_pct": 15.098496643127499,
          "cfo_parent_np": 0.6623503919287301,
          "reported_weighted_parent_roe_pct": 16.63
        },
        "capex_cash": 924196937.44,
        "cfo_minus_capex_yi": 8.8674922308,
        "source": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12118901"
      },
      "h1_2026": {
        "revenue": 6832528870.28,
        "parent_np": 1436337628.27,
        "adjusted_np": 1377319249.63,
        "cfo": 1254180981.41,
        "parent_equity": 17912546173.78,
        "assets_end": 23795104727.34,
        "consolidated_np": 1438914705.56,
        "liabilities_end": 5821710860.93,
        "dupont": {
          "halfyear_net_margin_pct": 21.05976766258483,
          "halfyear_turnover_not_annualized": 0.3005550665888742,
          "average_multiplier": 1.2875752486024905,
          "halfyear_consolidated_roe_not_annualized_pct": 8.149861880474223,
          "end_consolidated_multiplier": 1.323907154330493,
          "end_parent_bridge_multiplier": 1.3284043762673319
        },
        "source": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12525669"
      },
      "method": "合并净利率=合并税后净利润/营业收入；周转率=营业收入/期初期末平均总资产；杠杆=平均总资产/平均合并总权益。乘积是合并简单平均ROE，不冒充报表归母加权ROE。另列归母净利润/平均归母权益、扣非归母净利润/平均归母权益；归母桥接乘数含少数权益效果，不是纯债务杠杆。半年周转率和ROE为半年度、未年化。",
      "reported_roe_difference": "分红、增资/注销的时点加权及少数权益导致简单均值与报表加权ROE不同，不能强行调数配平。",
      "cashflow_caution": "CFO/归母利润是合并现金流对归母利润的粗比，不是同口径收益率；CFO减全部购建长期资产是现金差，非已认证所有者收益，未扣并购/客户结算和维持性资本开支净化。",
      "leverage_exceeds_3_latest": false,
      "source_status": "单一发行人年报/半年报披露，半年报未经审计；工具计算"
    },
    "valuation": {
      "quote": {
        "price": "90.31",
        "timestamp": "20260930161459",
        "pe_ttm": "44.17",
        "market_cap_yi": "1210.90",
        "div_yield_quote": "0.95"
      },
      "market_cap_basis": "腾讯总市值，非流通市值；每股估值采用当期报价股本基准",
      "fy2025_static_pe": 44.29,
      "adjusted_ttm_profit_yi": 24.2277,
      "adjusted_ttm_pe": 49.98,
      "normalized_profit_scenario_yi": [
        20,
        25
      ],
      "normalized_pe_scenario": [
        48.44,
        60.55
      ],
      "entry_pe_ceiling": 20,
      "conditional_cap_ceiling_yi": 400,
      "conditional_price_proxy": 29.83,
      "normalization_status": "研究者保守情景，非经审计正常化盈利或预测；必须通过verify后才能激活价格门槛",
      "dividend_yield_pct": 0.95,
      "dividend_basis": "腾讯股息率字段64，单源行情代理，未逐笔重建滚动已付分红；不作为满足买入条件的证据。",
      "fiscal_dividend_reference": {
        "dps_rmb": 0.86,
        "yield_at_quote_pct": 0.9523,
        "basis": "2025年度方案合计每股约0.86元（中期0.30+年度0.56）；2026中期0.30是另期预案，未核实施前不纳入已付TTM。",
        "source": [
          "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12118901",
          "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12525669"
        ]
      },
      "sources": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12118901",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12525669",
        "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh601100"
      ],
      "quote_as_of": "2026-09-30；不是2026-10-02成交价",
      "actual_ah_capitalization": "not_applicable",
      "normalization_rationale": [
        "【事实】2025营收109.41亿元、归母27.34亿元；2026H1收入+32.13%而归母仅+0.50%、扣非-5.01%。收入增长未兑现利润增厚是需要解释的事实。",
        "【正常化假设】2023—2025扣非约24.47/22.85/24.95亿元，采用20—25亿元跨周期区间，机器人期权不计入底层估值；若新产能持续低回报则下调。"
      ],
      "entry_status": "未触发：价格和定性验证必须同时通过；本次无已核验可买入结论"
    },
    "risks": [
      "【死法】挖机与海外订单下行→原有工厂利用率下降→新增海外/丝杠产线折旧叠加→库存减值与低回报长期化；电液/电动执行替代若失配，会影响技术位置。",
      "【最坏情况】2025金融资产相关非经常税前收益约2.71亿元、非经常净额约2.39亿元；不能把扣非前ROE稳定当主业无周期。设备清算折价与新项目沉没成本无法靠低财务杠杆完全避免。"
    ],
    "buy_conditions": {
      "buy_when": "正常化PE≤20倍，新业务不赋予未验证利润溢价；下游周期及新产能回报全部通过后才评审。",
      "verify": "解释2026收入增幅与利润背离，主业扣非盈利稳定；分别核海外/丝杠项目利用率、客户验收、折旧和ROIC；跨周期现金差覆盖分红，不依赖金融投资收益。",
      "anchor": "研究者正常化归母盈利情景20—25亿元（不是预测/已认证事实）；正常化PE≤20倍按区间下沿给统一估值总额上限400亿元，依本次报价股本代理对应≤29.83元/股。当前正常化情景PE约48.44—60.55倍；当前股息率行情代理0.95%，并未通过已付与可持续性核验。股本变化须重算，A/H公司只是A股每股支付价格门槛。",
      "source": [
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12118901",
        "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12525669",
        "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh601100"
      ],
      "manual": true,
      "triggered": false,
      "thresholds_are_opinions": true
    },
    "findings": [
      "巴菲特｜【事实】液压油缸、泵阀、系统及铸件，服务全球工程机械主机厂；公司年报披露墨西哥基地投产、线性驱动产品放量及泵阀拓展。 【观点】可靠性、精密加工、规模制造、主机厂认证与联合开发形成切换成本，十年高端液压仍有需求；进入外资供应链有价值，但大客户采购及工程机械竞争限制提价。 【反证】国际领先液压厂与国内同行的技术迭代持续，工程机械和出口高度周期化；机器人丝杠不等同已有成熟液压壁垒，不能用未量产领域为全部利润提估值。 来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12118901 ; https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12525669",
      "杜邦｜FY2025同口径合并杜邦：净利率25.04%×资产周转0.530次×平均总权益乘数1.246倍＝合并简单平均权益ROE16.52%；归母简单平均ROE16.54%，报表加权ROE16.63%。2026H1期末合并乘数1.324倍。低杠杆制造技术质量叠加周期：25.04%合并净利率、1.25倍平均杠杆；扣非简单ROE约15.10%接近门槛，金融收益对边际ROE有贡献。 来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12118901 ; https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12525669",
      "芒格｜【事实】2025CFO18.11亿元、购建9.24亿元，现金差8.87亿元，低于年度方案现金分红11.53亿元；年报年度每股0.56元并有中期分红。 【资本配置】从油缸向泵阀延伸较有产业协同，历史收购德国茵莱与海外研发/制造布局可理解；但海外厂、超大重型油缸、线性驱动器项目的增量回报尚待验证。回购现金项为0，不给不存在的注销增厚加分。 【反证】新业务多点投入可能使原来的高资本回报下降；不能将全额购建现金当维持性开支，也不能全视为可自由取消的成长支出。管理层长期资产回报未独立重建。 来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12118901 ; https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12525669",
      "费雪/林奇｜【事实】2025营收109.41亿元、归母27.34亿元；2026H1收入+32.13%而归母仅+0.50%、扣非-5.01%。收入增长未兑现利润增厚是需要解释的事实。 【正常化假设】2023—2025扣非约24.47/22.85/24.95亿元，采用20—25亿元跨周期区间，机器人期权不计入底层估值；若新产能持续低回报则下调。 正常化情景PE=[48.44, 60.55]。来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12118901 ; https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12525669 ; https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh601100",
      "烟蒂/最坏情况｜【死法】挖机与海外订单下行→原有工厂利用率下降→新增海外/丝杠产线折旧叠加→库存减值与低回报长期化；电液/电动执行替代若失配，会影响技术位置。 【最坏情况】2025金融资产相关非经常税前收益约2.71亿元、非经常净额约2.39亿元；不能把扣非前ROE稳定当主业无周期。设备清算折价与新项目沉没成本无法靠低财务杠杆完全避免。 来源：https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12118901 ; https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12525669"
    ],
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      "分项目ROIC/利用率与主业价格变动",
      "汇兑及投资收益对税后盈利的桥接",
      "机器人新业务可兑现订单",
      "周期中枢维持性资本开支",
      "未完成十年资本配置逐项目审计、全部监管记录及公告穷尽检索；没有发现不是证实不存在",
      "正常化区间为研究者压力情景；缺行业完整周期利润桥接，不能宣称精确内在价值",
      "财务关键数字为发行人单源；新浪镜像不是独立第二来源，行情腾讯单源",
      "股息率行情代理未逐笔独立复算；归属年度分红与支付年度、TTM不可混用"
    ],
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        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601100&id=12118901",
        "type": "发行人2025年度报告新浪镜像",
        "local_path": "/root/value-invest/data/roe_deep_batch1/601100_2025.txt",
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        "type": "腾讯行情单源",
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        "local_path": "/root/value-invest/data/roe_deep_batch1/quotes.txt"
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  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
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    "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch1.json",
    "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch1.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
    "quote": "腾讯行情；见原始深研来源"
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  "data_quality": [
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    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
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  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [],
  "reject_reason": "",
  "reject_reason_source": "",
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  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
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      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
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      "item": "下游周期及新产能回报全部通过后才评审。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
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      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
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      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "跨周期现金差覆盖分红，不依赖金融投资收益。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
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  "monthly_review": {
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    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
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}