{ "code": "601225", "name": "陕西煤业股份有限公司", "market": "A", "industry": "煤炭开采", "quality_tier": "bench", "quality_conflict": false, "in_quality_pool": true, "quality_source": "quality_pools_V2.json", "score": 3, "verdict": "保留价值观察池，但应以低煤价下的股东可分配现金和关联交易约束决定买入条件，不能把煤价反弹、高经营现金流或险资增持当成管理层优秀的证明。", "dupont": { "margin": null, "turnover": null, "leverage": 1.669449081803005, "roe": 0.17245427974947808, "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.10330011356993737, "method": "panel_residual_v1", "three_factors_complete": false, "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率", "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 17.25%，权益乘数 1.67倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 10.33%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。", "roe_date": "2026-08-31", "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31", "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30", "inputs": { "roe_ttm": 0.17245427974947808, "debt_to_assets": 0.401, "net_profit_ttm": 16170000000.0, "equity": 93763982102.90828, "reported_roa_ttm": 0.10330011356993736 }, "formulas": { "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)", "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)" }, "sources": { "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm", "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）" }, "limitations": [ "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。", "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。", "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。", "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。" ] }, "roe_series": [ { "year": 2019, "roe": 0.22757864095333394, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2020, "roe": 0.1988936082474227, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2021, "roe": 0.28333884253028263, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2022, "roe": 0.49204706102058915, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2023, "roe": 0.21264012272029997, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2024, "roe": 0.20299246753246755, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2025, "roe": 0.18019976744186045, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2026, "roe": 0.17245427974947808, "basis": "August TTM" } ], "roe_min": 0.17245427974947808, "channels": [ "cycle", "roe_quality" ], "proxy_candidate": false, "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：核心问题一：资源优势能否抵御永久损失？", "price_lines": { "watch": null, "good": null, "fat": null, "intrinsic_value": null, "basis": null, "condition": null, "currency": "CNY", "manual_gate": true }, "current": { "price": 26.03, "date": "2026-09-30", "pe": 12.37, "dy": 0.0349, "market_cap": 252361000000.0, "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh601225", "currency": "CNY", "source_count": 1 }, "buy_conditions": { "buy_when": null, "verify": null, "anchor": null, "source": null }, "research_file": "research/601225.html", "research_document": { "code": "601225", "name": "陕西煤业股份有限公司（陕西煤业）：主营煤炭、电力生产销售及相关生产服务，已不是单一煤炭开采企业。", "guru": "李录·风险管理层", "score": "★★★☆☆（3/5，资源与经营韧性较强，资本配置及治理仍需折价）", "verdict": "保留价值观察池，但应以低煤价下的股东可分配现金和关联交易约束决定买入条件，不能把煤价反弹、高经营现金流或险资增持当成管理层优秀的证明。", "findings": [ "核心问题一：资源优势能否抵御永久损失？【事实】2026年半年报确认煤炭、电力为主业；截至2025年末可开采储量115.11亿吨、核定产能1.64亿吨，公司披露可开采年限约70年；2026年上半年归母净利润112.72亿元，同比增长47.57%。上述储量和利润由半年报与证券时报报道交叉核对，但均以公司披露为底层来源。【观点】较长资源接续期降低近期资源枯竭风险；反面是地质可采年限不等于经济可采年限，煤价、碳约束和安全投入仍决定回报。特别是同期电力售价379.63元/兆瓦时、下降6.87%，发电完全成本仅下降3.60%，说明煤电一体化并非无条件对冲。电价和成本数据单源未交叉。来源：https://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601225&id=12556071 ；https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/4154582.html", "核心问题二：现金是否真正流向股东，还是持续投入新资产？【事实】证券时报披露2026年上半年经营现金流205.37亿元、增长29.86%（单源未交叉）；半年报列示购建固定资产、无形资产和其他长期资产支付现金约69.02亿元，在建燃煤机组10000MW。中期拟每10股分红0.58元，合计5.64亿元、占当期归母净利润5%，与财联社公告报道交叉核对。【观点】经营现金充裕和新增电力产能构成正面支撑；反面是经营现金流包含少数股东权益对应的业务现金，不能直接与归母利润比较后认定为股东自由现金。大额建设支出也意味着留存现金有再投资风险。5%的中期派息比例不足以证明全年分红政策恶化，但同样不能提前确认全年高分红。来源：https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/4154582.html ；https://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601225&id=12556071 ；https://www.cls.cn/detail/2466200", "核心问题三：控股股东与中小股东利益是否一致？【事实】半年报声明不存在控股股东及其他关联方非经营性资金占用、不存在违规决策对外担保，此为公司声明，单源未交叉；2025年年度股东大会公告显示，日常关联交易议案中关联股东回避表决，但中小股东反对比例达16.9469%。此外，2024年公布的电力集团收购方案拟以156.95亿元购买控股股东所持88.6525%股权，评估净资产增值率50.31%，该交易历史数据来自每日经济新闻转载，单源未交叉。【观点】回避表决和披露制度提供程序约束，煤电整合也存在产业合理性；反面是关联交易并不能仅凭程序合规认定价格公允，中小股东异议值得追踪，资产评估增值也不等于未来现金回报。尚无依据据此认定利益输送。来源：https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-06-11/1223835434.PDF ；https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8fEWM8uyJ1q ；https://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=601225&id=12556071" ], "data_gaps": "最新核验至2026年半年报，未经审计。未完成电力资产收购后实际投资回报、全部关联交易定价、财务公司存款风险、矿井安全处罚及管理层长期资本配置回报的穿透核查，因此不能给管理层诚信作无保留背书。用户提供的ROE、PB、股息率及cf/np缺少明确时点，未作为最新估值结论；经营现金流205.37亿元未完成原表交叉。部分搜索调用失败，已更换查询并直接读取新浪公告。" }, "outside_watch": false, "triggers": [], "status": "watch", "provenance": { "research": "data/research/601225.json", "conditions": null, "quality": "quality_pools_V2.json", "quote": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh601225", "dupont": { "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py", "method": "panel_residual_v1", "roe_date": "2026-08-31", "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31" }, "death_risk": { "source": "research_document", "field": "findings[0]", "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点" } }, "research_rating": 3, "data_quality": [ "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证", "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入" ], "distance_pct": null, "quote_fresh": true, "triggered": false, "roe_discovery": true, "reject_reason_tags": [], "reject_reason": "", "reject_reason_source": "", "tracking_state": "observing", "verification_kind": "price_line", "verification_reason": "已深研；数值价格线待核，不等于深研否决", "tracking_kind": "", "tracking_checklist": [ { "type": "人工", "item": "保留价值观察池，但应以低煤价下的股东可分配现金和关联交易约束决定买入条件，不能把煤价反弹、高经营现金流或险资增持当成管理层优秀的证明。", "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）" } ], "monthly_review": { "month": "2026-10", "status": "本期未复核", "core_changes": "本期未复核", "reviewed_on": null, "event_count": null, "events": {}, "sources": [], "decision": null, "observations": {}, "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json" } }