{
  "code": "603075",
  "name": "热威股份",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "行业待核验",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "回避：经营仍有盈利和现金流支撑，但低PB高度疑似流通市值口径造成的假折价，分红不能替代经核实的安全边际。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.361285053090117,
    "roe": 0.1545764242105263,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.11355184122505263,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 15.46%，权益乘数 1.36倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 11.36%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.1545764242105263,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.26539999999999997,
      "net_profit_ttm": 325689400.0,
      "equity": 2106979778.212655,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.11355184122505263
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.2121756,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.15733333333333333,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.1545764242105263,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.1545764242105263,
  "channels": [],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：2026年上半年营收11.048亿元、同比增长12.13%，归母净利润1.634亿元、增长1.76%，扣非净利润下降0.76%，经营现金流1.801亿元、增长27.00%。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/603075.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "603075",
    "name": "热威股份（杭州热威电热科技股份有限公司；并非证券简称“热威科技”）",
    "guru": "巴菲特·财务估值",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5，烟蒂投资适格性评分）",
    "verdict": "回避：经营仍有盈利和现金流支撑，但低PB高度疑似流通市值口径造成的假折价，分红不能替代经核实的安全边际。",
    "findings": [
      "核心问题一——买的是便宜资产，还是口径错误？【事实】主业为电热元件和组件研发、生产、销售，服务家电、工业商用装备及新能源汽车。2025年末总股本402,483,111股，无限售流通股41,245,066股；归母净资产21.749亿元。【计算/观点】若题给PB=0.382、E/P=0.404确由流通市值除全公司权益及利润得到，以该期股本结构进行口径情景修正，PB约3.73倍、E/P约4.14%、PE约24.15倍，远非烟蒂。该计算不是同日最新估值，不能直接作为交易价格依据。【反面检验】低流通比例本身不证明公司差，只是否定以流通市值购买全公司净资产的逻辑。来源：2025年报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603075&id=12092657 （股本及净资产：单源未交叉）。",
      "核心问题二——利润与分红能否长期变成可支配现金？【事实】2025年归母净利润3.231亿元，经营现金净流入3.510亿元，购建长期资产现金支出1.154亿元；据此计算现金转换率约1.09，简化自由现金流约2.356亿元。年度拟分红2.817亿元，占归母利润87.19%，超过该简化自由现金流。2026年上半年营收11.048亿元、同比增长12.13%，归母净利润1.634亿元、增长1.76%，扣非净利润下降0.76%，经营现金流1.801亿元、增长27.00%。【观点】现金回收是正面证据，但经营现金流不等于股东可提取现金；高派息率与利润增长放缓限制持续分红弹性，不能直接外推题给股息率。【来源】2025年报同上；2026半年报摘要 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603075&id=12501434 ；半年收入、利润和现金流与 https://stock.stockstar.com/RB2026081900018011.shtml 交叉一致。年度现金支出及分红：单源未交叉；简化自由现金流未扣租赁偿付等其他项目。",
      "核心问题三——审计、监管与控制股东是否藏雷？【事实】2025年财报获天健标准无保留审计意见，年报面临退市风险相关栏目为不适用。2026半年报摘要显示前三大股东持股71.56%、8.94%、8.94%，均未列示质押、标记或冻结。重要例外：2025年报处罚栏目为适用，具体为独董潘磊于2024年11月25日因海南普利制药相关事项受到深交所通报批评，文号深证上〔2024〕987号；不能误写为热威自身财务造假或公司受罚。【观点】未见已核实的直接退市或控股股东质押爆仓信号，但高度集中的控制权及独董外部履职处分应保留治理折价；无保留意见不是无舞弊保证。【来源】上述2025年报及2026半年报摘要，均为发行人披露，单源未交叉。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "尚未取得与输入因子完全同日的未复权股价、总股本及TTM计算底稿，因此不能发布精确最新PB/PE。2023年上市，题给“10年ROE中位”不能当作十年上市后持续盈利记录；原始样本数量、上市前数据及月度重复值未核验。2026年半年报未经审计；未完成截至2026-09-28全部监管、司法及解禁公告的穷尽核查。评分针对烟蒂适格性，不等同于认定经营失败。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/603075.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "findings[1]",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "估值口径",
    "现金转换"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "回避：经营仍有盈利和现金流支撑，但低PB高度疑似流通市值口径造成的假折价，分红不能替代经核实的安全边际。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "回避：经营仍有盈利和现金流支撑，但低PB高度疑似流通市值口径造成的假折价，分红不能替代经核实的安全边际。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}