{
  "code": "603092",
  "name": "德力佳",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "行业待核验",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "回避：客户与关联销售集中、行业周期和现金转化压力并存，题给超低PB没有通过总市值口径验证。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.88821752265861,
    "roe": 0.2596636033857316,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.13751784435308345,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 25.97%，权益乘数 1.89倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 13.75%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.2596636033857316,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.4704,
      "net_profit_ttm": 897000000.0,
      "equity": 3454469507.101086,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.13751784435308345
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.2596636033857316,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.2596636033857316,
  "channels": [],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：【观点】整机厂认证、可靠性验证与批量交付形成进入壁垒，但如此高的客户集中度意味着降价、延迟验收或客户切换可能迅速侵蚀收益；大客户同时是股东，既稳定订单，也增加关联定价与业务独立性的核查要求，不能将高ROE直接视为强定价权。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/603092.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "603092",
    "name": "德力佳（德力佳传动科技〔江苏〕股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "芒格·行业竞争",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5，烟蒂投资适格性评分）",
    "verdict": "回避：客户与关联销售集中、行业周期和现金转化压力并存，题给超低PB没有通过总市值口径验证。",
    "findings": [
      "核心问题一——技术壁垒能否转化为对客户的议价权？【事实】公司主营高速重载精密齿轮传动产品，核心产品为风电主齿轮箱。2025年前五大客户销售占比94.16%，其中关联方销售占全年销售额21.49%；三一重能持股25.20%。【观点】整机厂认证、可靠性验证与批量交付形成进入壁垒，但如此高的客户集中度意味着降价、延迟验收或客户切换可能迅速侵蚀收益；大客户同时是股东，既稳定订单，也增加关联定价与业务独立性的核查要求，不能将高ROE直接视为强定价权。【来源】2025年报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603092&id=12086911 （关键比例单源未交叉）。",
      "核心问题二——什么会毁掉竞争优势？【事实】年报披露产品覆盖双馈、半直驱路线，2025年18MW海上齿轮箱实现批量交付；公开行业资料列示竞争者包括南高齿、威能极、采埃孚等。2026年上半年营收25.965亿元、同比增长4.49%，归母净利润4.117亿元、增长4.58%，但扣非净利润3.774亿元、下降0.08%，经营现金流2.569亿元、下降25.28%；计算现金流/归母利润约0.62。【观点】大型化提供需求和技术门槛，却同时要求持续研发、扩产与可靠性投入；直驱替代属于应跟踪的技术风险，不是已经发生的全面淘汰。客户压价、抢装后需求波动及大机型质量赔付，比静态高ROE更值得警惕。【来源】2025年报同上；2026半年报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603092&id=12511426 ，收入利润与巨潮2026-09-02业绩说明会记录交叉一致：http://dataclouds.cninfo.com.cn/shgonggao/investor/2026/20260904/f38100e907cd7dbebf422134a3297158.pdf 。现金流及扣非数字单源未交叉；竞争者资料 https://www.moneydj.com/kmdj/wiki/wikiviewer.aspx?keyid=ded60836-bb59-438c-ae69-fbf668c4a8ed （单源未交叉）。",
      "核心问题三——估值便宜是否真实，硬风险是否已排除？【事实】2026年6月末总股本400,000,100股，无限售流通股34,571,654股，约占8.64%。若题给PB=0.496和E/P=0.523使用流通市值分子，以该结构作口径情景修正，PB约5.74倍、E/P约4.52%、PE约22.12倍；这不是同日实测估值。2025年财报获公证天业标准无保留审计意见，年报退市风险、违法违规处罚栏目为不适用；2026半年报前十大股东表未列示质押、标记或冻结。【观点】当前证据不支持贴上退市或造假标签，但没有监管红灯不等于有估值安全边际。IPO后权益扩张也使上市前高ROE难直接外推。【来源】上述2025年报与2026半年报，股本、审计和监管披露均单源未交叉。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "公司2017年成立、2025年11月7日上市，题给“10年ROE中位”不具备已验证的十年上市历史基础；输入数据覆盖期及重复采样方式未提供。缺与因子同日总市值、同口径TTM利润和归母权益，情景修正不可冒充当前估值。尚缺各客户合同价格、保修赔付敏感性及独立核验的最新市场份额。半年报未经审计；未穷尽核查半年报后全部监管公告。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/603092.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "findings[0]",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "单品依赖",
    "估值口径",
    "现金转换"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "回避：客户与关联销售集中、行业周期和现金转化压力并存，题给超低PB没有通过总市值口径验证。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "回避：客户与关联销售集中、行业周期和现金转化压力并存，题给超低PB没有通过总市值口径验证。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}