{ "code": "603129", "name": "春风动力", "market": "A", "industry": "其他交运设备", "quality_tier": "bronze", "quality_conflict": false, "in_quality_pool": true, "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）", "score": 3, "verdict": "成长有产品与品牌证据，但ROE受供应链杠杆支持；待关税后利润率、可持续现金流和价格。", "dupont": { "margin": 0.08484792903651103, "turnover": 1.1557174440411444, "leverage": 2.4948817077785814, "roe": 0.24464867827462297, "basis": "FY2025归母桥接（含少数权益影响）", "conclusion": "FY2025杜邦8.48%×1.156×2.495=24.46%，扣非23.09%；高周转与较高权益乘数缺一不可。主要为应付票据/账款经营融资，不等同高有息债但也非无杠杆；CFO/归母2.37不可直接认证现金质量极佳。" }, "roe_series": [ { "year": 2019, "roe": 0.1632992725, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2020, "roe": 0.25266408839779003, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2021, "roe": 0.32610082191780826, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2022, "roe": 0.2323354368932039, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2023, "roe": 0.2422212553495007, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2024, "roe": 0.2504518849206349, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2025, "roe": 0.3147503396739131, "basis": "August TTM" }, { "year": 2026, "roe": 0.24606967164179103, "basis": "August TTM" } ], "roe_min": 0.1632992725, "channels": [ "roe_quality" ], "proxy_candidate": false, "death_risk": "欧美可选消费衰退、经销商去库存叠加关税，净利率快速下行。；供应商缩短账期，应付经营杠杆逆转形成大额现金流出。；大排量新品安全/质量事故、海外售后成本失控。", "price_lines": { "watch": 164.18693116048934, "good": null, "fat": null, "intrinsic_value": null, "basis": "深研条件价；全部人工验证仍须满足", "condition": "正常化利润保守端14.0亿元下总股权PE≤18倍，条件价约164.19元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。", "currency": "CNY", "manual_gate": true }, "current": { "price": 287.06, "date": "2026-09-30", "pe": 25.35, "dy": 0.0146, "market_cap": 44059000000.0, "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh603129", "currency": "CNY", "source_count": 1 }, "buy_conditions": { "buy_when": "正常化利润保守端14.0亿元下总股权PE≤18倍，条件价约164.19元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。", "verify": "渠道库存和终端零售而非批发出货；美国关税与海外原产地合规；供应商支付期限回归后的CFO；股权激励及现股本摊薄。", "anchor": "2026-09-30未复权收盘287.06元，总市值440.59亿元；正常化PE25.92—31.47倍。阈值是研究判断，无历史估值分位背书。", "source": null }, "research_file": "research/603129.html", "research_document": { "code": "603129", "name": "春风动力", "score": "3★", "verdict": "成长有产品与品牌证据，但ROE受供应链杠杆支持；待关税后利润率、可持续现金流和价格。", "roe_quality_note": "FY2025杜邦8.48%×1.156×2.495=24.46%，扣非23.09%；高周转与较高权益乘数缺一不可。主要为应付票据/账款经营融资，不等同高有息债但也非无杠杆；CFO/归母2.37不可直接认证现金质量极佳。", "quote": { "price": 287.06, "time": "20260930161455", "market_cap": 44059000000.0, "currency": "CNY", "source_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh603129", "source_count": 1, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T03:49:35.097460+00:00" }, "facts_vs_opinion": "financial_facts/quote为来源事实与计算；business/management/growth/risk及估值阈值为研究判断，不是管理层预测或自动买入指令。", "roe_discovery": { "minimum": 0.1632992725, "mean": 0.2534865964118302, "basis": "2019—2026八月末TTM年度采样，非8个完整财年；面板未剔非经常损益，单源且有幸存者偏差" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603129&id=12095244", "source_count": 1, "type": "发行人年报新浪镜像，非独立第二源" }, { "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603129&id=12498739", "source_count": 1, "type": "发行人2026中报新浪镜像" } ], "financial_facts": { "revenue": 19745576117.94, "revenue_prev": 15038060145.03, "profit": 1675371241.24, "profit_prev": 1471761328.04, "adjusted_profit": 1581346949.71, "adjusted_profit_prev": 1441569401.75, "assets": 19270085851.43, "assets_prev": 14900162628.85, "equity": 7502093531.63, "equity_prev": 6194046198.66, "cfo": 3966268556.28, "cfo_prev": 2972746094.55, "capex": 759415276.48, "capex_prev": 502383356.71, "source_url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603129&id=12095244", "source_count": 1, "dupont": { "parent_net_margin": 0.08484792903651103, "asset_turnover": 1.1557174440411444, "parent_equity_multiplier": 2.4948817077785814, "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.24464867827462297, "adjusted_roe": 0.23091863559375597 }, "cfo_to_parent_profit": 2.367396824446162, "simple_fcf": 3206853279.8, "period": "FY2025", "currency": "CNY", "H1_2026": { "source_url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603129&id=12498739", "revenue": 13386075247.16, "revenue_prev": 9855433172.23, "profit": 1064624745.59, "profit_prev": 1001909003.12, "cfo": 2246574975.7, "cfo_prev": 2399965948.11 }, "latest_ttm_parent_profit": 1738086983.71, "H1_profit_yoy": 0.06259624604100744, "H1_revenue_yoy": 0.3582432160240723 }, "dupont": { "parent_net_margin": 0.08484792903651103, "asset_turnover": 1.1557174440411444, "parent_equity_multiplier": 2.4948817077785814, "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.24464867827462297, "adjusted_roe": 0.23091863559375597 }, "business": { "essence": "CFMOTO全地形车及中大排量摩托，品牌、车型平台和经销网络赚产品附加值，非纯代工。", "moat": "发动机/整车开发、车型迭代与海外经销服务，产品谱系与成本控制共同积累。", "countercase": "可选消费、北美经销商补库存与关税高度影响利润；品牌年轻且需要研发/营销持续投入，不能按成熟奢侈品牌估值。" }, "management": { "assessment": "海外产能与多市场销售有分散能力；研发与新品投入方向合理，但应按海外工厂税后现金回报评估，不把产地迁移当关税永久豁免。", "capital_allocation": "2025应付票据53.88亿元、应付账款43.21亿元，较上年合计增加约25.26亿元，支持CFO39.66亿元；简单FCF32.07亿元包含营运资本释放，不能全部当永久股东盈利。" }, "growth_valuation": { "growth": "2026H1收入133.86亿元增速快于归母10.65亿元，关税/促销侵蚀增量利润；2025美国进口关税成本9.781亿元且含归类调整，不在未核法律持续性前全额加回。", "normalization": "FY2025扣非15.81亿元，H1利润小幅增长，正常化14—17亿元；保留常态关税/售后/营销，不把供应商账期融资当利润。", "normalized_profit_cny": [ 1400000000.0, 1700000000.0 ], "normalization_status": "分析假设，非公司指引；不等于净现金流", "normalized_pe_range": [ 25.917058823529413, 31.470714285714287 ], "reported_ttm_pe_calculated": 25.349134084161147, "threshold_pe": 18, "conditional_price_cny": 164.18693116048934, "share_basis": "行情全股本总市值/同日报价反推每股锚；不用旧EPS或复权价格，已避免伯特利/豪迈转增口径错配。" }, "buy_conditions": { "buy_when": "正常化利润保守端14.0亿元下总股权PE≤18倍，条件价约164.19元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。", "verify": "渠道库存和终端零售而非批发出货；美国关税与海外原产地合规；供应商支付期限回归后的CFO；股权激励及现股本摊薄。", "anchor": "2026-09-30未复权收盘287.06元，总市值440.59亿元；正常化PE25.92—31.47倍。阈值是研究判断，无历史估值分位背书。" }, "risk_death": [ "欧美可选消费衰退、经销商去库存叠加关税，净利率快速下行。", "供应商缩短账期，应付经营杠杆逆转形成大额现金流出。", "大排量新品安全/质量事故、海外售后成本失控。" ], "worst_case": "供应链融资不是永续免费资金；若销售放缓且支付账期正常化，过去高CFO可能反转，应按压力现金而非静态ROE看偿付。", "four_master_summary": { "巴菲特": "见business与dupont：护城河、经济回报与现金可持续性。", "芒格": "见management：资本配置、激励、并购与反面论据。", "费雪林奇": "见growth_valuation与buy_conditions：增长来源、正常化估值与验证条件。", "格雷厄姆烟蒂压力": "见worst_case与risk_death：本批不因高ROE认定净资产具有清算保护。" }, "data_quality": { "financial_source_count": 1, "independent_double_source_verified": false, "status": "primary_source_grounded_with_explicit_valuation_assumptions", "quote_source": "Tencent独立行情仅验证价格，不是财报数字独立双源", "dupont_basis": "归母净利率(归母利润/合并收入) × 合并收入/平均合并总资产 × 平均合并总资产/平均归母权益；含少数权益结构影响，权益乘数不是纯有息债杠杆。用年初年末均值，不等于公司加权ROE。", "fcf_basis": "若有simple_fcf为合并CFO−购建长期资产现金；未扣收购/租赁全部本金、未剔增长capex、含NCI，不冒充归母可分配FCF。", "limits": [ "财务为发行人单源，镜像/同发行人中报不构成独立双源。", "正常化盈利、买入倍数和压力情景为分析假设；未构建完整DCF、估值历史分位或收购逐笔IRR。", "2026中报后至研究时点全部公告未逐条覆盖，重大后续事项需执行前补查。" ] } }, "outside_watch": false, "triggers": [], "status": "watch", "provenance": { "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json", "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json", "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）", "quote": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh603129" }, "research_rating": 3, "data_quality": [ "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证", "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入" ], "distance_pct": 74.8373, "quote_fresh": true, "triggered": false, "roe_discovery": true, "reject_reason_tags": [], "reject_reason": "", "reject_reason_source": "", "tracking_state": "observing", "verification_kind": "", "verification_reason": "", "tracking_kind": "", "tracking_checklist": [ { "type": "比率", "item": "正常化利润保守端14.0亿元下总股权PE≤18倍，条件价约164.19元", "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "人工", "item": "并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。", "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "事件", "item": "渠道库存和终端零售而非批发出货", "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "人工", "item": "美国关税与海外原产地合规", "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "人工", "item": "供应商支付期限回归后的CFO", "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" }, { "type": "人工", "item": "股权激励及现股本摊薄。", "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）" } ], "monthly_review": { "month": "2026-10", "status": "本期未复核", "core_changes": "本期未复核", "reviewed_on": null, "event_count": null, "events": {}, "sources": [], "decision": null, "observations": {}, "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json" } }