{
  "code": "603198",
  "name": "迎驾贡酒",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "白酒",
  "quality_tier": "bench",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": true,
  "quality_source": "quality_pools_V2.json",
  "score": 3,
  "verdict": "买入观察：等待终端库存、实际成交价和营销效率共同改善，不因历史高ROE或面板股息率直接买入。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.272426517368622,
    "roe": 0.1945861027190332,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.1529252181268882,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 19.46%，权益乘数 1.27倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 15.29%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.1945861027190332,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.2141,
      "net_profit_ttm": 1992000000.0,
      "equity": 10237113402.061857,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.1529252181268882
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.1990967907573813,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.1809275268817204,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.24459097586568734,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.2829958904109589,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.3078956011730205,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.3414636283961437,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.25193383545770565,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.1945861027190332,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.1809275268817204,
  "channels": [
    "value",
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：买入观察：等待终端库存、实际成交价和营销效率共同改善，不因历史高ROE或面板股息率直接买入。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 38.72,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 15.36,
    "dy": 0.0387,
    "market_cap": 30976000000.0,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh603198",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/603198.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "603198",
    "name": "迎驾贡酒",
    "guru": "段永平·商业模式",
    "business": "安徽迎驾贡酒股份有限公司，主营白酒研发、生产和销售，主要产品包括洞藏、贡酒、金银星等系列。名称、代码与主业已由2025年年报及2026年半年报确认。",
    "core_questions": [
      {
        "question": "一、消费者为什么选择迎驾，其差异化是否构成持久护城河？",
        "analysis": "【事实】公司年报把生态酿造、区域市场和完整产业链列为竞争优势；2026年半年报同时承认，与全国一线白酒相比，其品牌影响力仍有差距。[Y1、Y2，企业自述，单源未交叉]【观点】真正有价值的不是“生态”概念本身，而是本地消费认知、渠道覆盖和产品稳定性共同形成的复购。区域品牌可以是一门好生意，却不等于可以低成本复制到全国。反面证据是2025年省外酒类收入同比下降25.57%，说明异地市场尚不能充当稳定增长引擎。[Y3，年报与媒体核对]因此，应把迎驾理解为有区域优势的消费品企业，而非拥有全国性定价权的稀缺资产；没有终端复购率、成交价和消费者调研，不能直接给品牌护城河最高评价。"
      },
      {
        "question": "二、增长来自消费者需求恢复，还是更高的渠道和营销投入？",
        "analysis": "【事实】2025年营收60.19亿元、归母净利润19.86亿元，分别下降18.04%、23.31%；2026年上半年营收34.16亿元、归母净利润11.62亿元，分别增长8.08%、2.79%。年度数据由巨潮摘要与每经核对，半年数据由报告与每经报道核对。[Y1—Y4]【观点】最新结果支持“经营修复”，但不足以支持“定价权增强”：利润增长明显慢于收入，说明新增销售没有同比例转化为股东收益。反面证据是同期销售费用增长24.95%，渠道争夺需要更多投入。[Y4，单源未交叉]正面看，公司并未以收入持续萎缩换取账面利润；负面看，低基数和费用增加削弱了复苏质量。应等终端动销、库存和费用效率共同改善，而非只看收入转正。"
      },
      {
        "question": "三、利润能否稳定变现，分红是否来自可持续经营现金？",
        "analysis": "【事实】2025年各季度经营现金流合计约12.34亿元，相对于19.86亿元归母净利润，现金转化约0.62倍；这是按年报季度表计算，单源未交叉。[Y1]2026年上半年经营现金流10.75亿元，同比增长239.52%，约为同期归母净利润的0.93倍；报告解释为销售收现增加、采购付款减少。[Y2、Y4]【观点】回款修复是实质性利好，但采购付款时点同样影响结果，不能把现金流增速全部归于需求。2025年度拟现金分红12亿元，且半年报确认已完成年度权益分派，体现股东回报意愿。[Y1、Y2]反面是经营现金流还需负担资本开支与基酒储备。用户面板cf/np=1.361并不代表最近年度或半年现金转化，不能跨期直接使用。"
      }
    ],
    "score": "★★★☆☆（3/5）",
    "conclusion": "区域品牌与产品体系具有价值，2026年上半年经营及回款修复；但省外拓展、费用效率和终端定价权尚未证明恢复。商业模式合格，护城河强度不宜等同全国高端名酒。",
    "verdict": "买入观察：等待终端库存、实际成交价和营销效率共同改善，不因历史高ROE或面板股息率直接买入。",
    "findings": [
      "2025年不是稳定增长年：营收、归母净利润分别下降18.04%、23.31%，省外酒类收入下降25.57%。来源：巨潮年报摘要Y1、每经Y3；核心年度业绩已交叉，省外数据与新浪年报正文核对。",
      "2026年上半年收入增长8.08%，归母净利润仅增长2.79%，销售费用增长24.95%，复苏伴随费用压力。来源：半年报Y2、每经报道Y4；收入与利润已交叉，销售费用增速单源未交叉。",
      "现金转化需要更新：2025年经营现金流/归母净利润约0.62倍，2026年上半年约0.93倍，并非面板所示1.361倍。来源：Y1季度表、Y2半年报；比值为计算值，年度现金流单源未交叉。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "未取得独立终端库存、批零价格、倒挂比例和省外消费者复购资料；未完成维持性资本开支拆分。面板没有估值日期，流通市值不能未经核对替代总市值。半年报未经审计；公司宣传性竞争优势不视为独立验证。",
    "sources": {
      "Y1": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-23/1225154221.PDF",
      "Y2": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603198&id=12533048",
      "Y3": "https://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2026-04-23/4354005.html",
      "Y4": "https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-08-25/doc-inippvuq2296626.shtml",
      "年度报告正文": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603198&id=12150909"
    },
    "候补后续复核": [
      {
        "source": "results/2026-10-01-bench-batch3.json",
        "review": {
          "rank_in_bench": 29,
          "code": "603198",
          "name": "迎驾贡酒",
          "original_verdict_truncated": "买入观察：等待终端库存、实际成交价和营销效率",
          "original_verdict_full": "买入观察：等待终端库存、实际成交价和营销效率共同改善，不因历史高ROE或面板股息率直接买入。",
          "doubt": "终端库存、实际成交价与营销效率是否共同改善。",
          "doubt_origin": {
            "method": "从原结论提炼；batch_results.json结论被截断，回溯2026-09-28原始研究恢复全文",
            "path": "/root/.hermes/cache/delegation/subagent-summary-0-20260928_144549_167074.txt"
          },
          "evidence_result": "现金修复有硬数据，但未获得可比经销商库存天数、净返利后成交价或费用投入回报；报表增长不构成渠道疑点解除。未把媒体零散渠道访谈当作公司全面恶化的证据。",
          "evidence": [
            {
              "published_on": "2026-08-26",
              "source_type": "公司半年报",
              "finding": "销售费用383,855,268.64元，同比增加24.95%，公司解释为广告宣传费增加；收入同比增长8.08%，归母利润增长2.79%。利润恢复慢于收入、费用增长快于收入，营销效率仍需验证。",
              "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603198&id=12533048",
              "source_status": "单源；公司公告/调研与转载不视为独立交叉验证"
            },
            {
              "published_on": "2026-08-26",
              "source_type": "公司半年报",
              "finding": "经营现金流1,075,071,713.54元，同比增加239.52%，报告称销售回款增加及采购付现减少共同驱动，不能全归因终端动销改善。",
              "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603198&id=12533048",
              "source_status": "单源；公司公告/调研与转载不视为独立交叉验证"
            }
          ],
          "decision": "维持",
          "recommended_rating": "3★观察候补",
          "reason": "回款修复与费用压力并存，渠道库存和净成交价没有可核查数据，维持3★。",
          "missing_data": [
            "同区域同产品终端库存天数及补货数据",
            "批价/零售价扣除返利后的顺价和倒挂比例",
            "营销投入对应新增真实消费及省外复购"
          ],
          "fact_vs_opinion": "evidence为已取得来源中的事实或注明的管理层表述；decision/reason为研究判断，不是交易指令。",
          "change_vs_previous_research": "未取得足以全部解除原疑点或确认自原3★结论后实质恶化至回避的新硬证据；复查旧半年报不冒充新增事件。",
          "coverage": {
            "announcement_index_url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/go.php/vCB_AllBulletin/stockid/603198.phtml",
            "index_latest_displayed_date": "2026-09-24",
            "scope": "逐家公司定向搜索+新浪公告索引+疑点相关公告/附件，不是全部公告穷尽审计；索引显示日不能单独证明披露有效日。"
          },
          "evidence_local_directory": "/root/value-invest/results/bench-batch3-evidence/"
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/603198.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "quality_pools_V2.json",
    "quote": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh603198",
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "verdict",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 3,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [],
  "reject_reason": "",
  "reject_reason_source": "",
  "tracking_state": "observing",
  "verification_kind": "price_line",
  "verification_reason": "已深研；数值价格线待核，不等于深研否决",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "买入观察：等待终端库存、实际成交价和营销效率共同改善，不因历史高ROE或面板股息率直接买入。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}