{
  "code": "603338",
  "name": "浙江鼎力",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "专用设备",
  "quality_tier": "bronze",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": true,
  "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
  "score": 3,
  "verdict": "周期成长观察：高空作业平台制造与产品力较强，但海外贸易壁垒、客户信用及现金转化要求更低买价。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": 0.2214691278258625,
    "turnover": 0.5243690528719048,
    "leverage": 1.5254183363969485,
    "roe": 0.17714920617462493,
    "basis": "FY2025归母桥接（含少数权益影响）",
    "conclusion": "FY2025杜邦22.15%×0.524×1.525=17.71%，扣非17.02%；主要靠净利率而非快周转。CFO/归母0.691，简单FCF6.51亿元仅为利润一部分，低杠杆不能掩盖应收扩张。"
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.22347395833333336,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.2910414985590778,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.21987831325301205,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.2247329185520362,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.23285441527446302,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.2325990358864488,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.19618766114180478,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.18004707740916276,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.18004707740916276,
  "channels": [
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "关税加码和租赁商同时收缩，价格/销量/回款三杀。；以放宽账期换海外增长，最终坏账穿透净利润。；竞争导致设备残值下降，租赁客户购置意愿进一步恶化。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": 35.548317850401574,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": "深研条件价；全部人工验证仍须满足",
    "condition": "正常化利润保守端15.0亿元下总股权PE≤12倍，条件价约35.55元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 53.36,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 14.71,
    "dy": 0.0216,
    "market_cap": 27019000000.0,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh603338",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "正常化利润保守端15.0亿元下总股权PE≤12倍，条件价约35.55元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
    "verify": "欧美贸易税率和原产地风险、客户账龄/逾期与担保；海外租赁商库存；新增产能利用率；CFO/利润连续恢复到0.8以上。",
    "anchor": "2026-09-30未复权收盘53.36元，总市值270.19亿元；正常化PE14.60—18.01倍。阈值是研究判断，无历史估值分位背书。",
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/603338.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "603338",
    "name": "浙江鼎力",
    "score": "3★",
    "verdict": "周期成长观察：高空作业平台制造与产品力较强，但海外贸易壁垒、客户信用及现金转化要求更低买价。",
    "roe_quality_note": "FY2025杜邦22.15%×0.524×1.525=17.71%，扣非17.02%；主要靠净利率而非快周转。CFO/归母0.691，简单FCF6.51亿元仅为利润一部分，低杠杆不能掩盖应收扩张。",
    "quote": {
      "price": 53.36,
      "time": "20260930161459",
      "market_cap": 27019000000.0,
      "currency": "CNY",
      "source_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh603338",
      "source_count": 1,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T03:49:35.097456+00:00"
    },
    "facts_vs_opinion": "financial_facts/quote为来源事实与计算；business/management/growth/risk及估值阈值为研究判断，不是管理层预测或自动买入指令。",
    "roe_discovery": {
      "minimum": 0.1800470774091627,
      "mean": 0.2251018598011673,
      "basis": "2019—2026八月末TTM年度采样，非8个完整财年；面板未剔非经常损益，单源且有幸存者偏差"
    },
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603338&id=12099525",
        "source_count": 1,
        "type": "发行人年报新浪镜像，非独立第二源"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603338&id=12560108",
        "source_count": 1,
        "type": "发行人2026中报新浪镜像"
      }
    ],
    "financial_facts": {
      "revenue": 8575480546.36,
      "revenue_prev": 7798913979.04,
      "profit": 1899204197.29,
      "profit_prev": 1628805154.01,
      "adjusted_profit": 1824607095.03,
      "adjusted_profit_prev": 1638488207.24,
      "assets": 17353958900.29,
      "assets_prev": 15353846792.64,
      "equity": 11406563717.33,
      "equity_prev": 10035295812.29,
      "cfo": 1312489814.95,
      "cfo_prev": 1916547999.11,
      "capex": 661555440.11,
      "capex_prev": 356342959.88,
      "source_url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603338&id=12099525",
      "source_count": 1,
      "dupont": {
        "parent_net_margin": 0.2214691278258625,
        "asset_turnover": 0.5243690528719048,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.5254183363969485,
        "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.17714920617462493,
        "adjusted_roe": 0.17019112474918224
      },
      "cfo_to_parent_profit": 0.6910735648240507,
      "simple_fcf": 650934374.84,
      "period": "FY2025",
      "currency": "CNY",
      "H1_2026": {
        "source_url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603338&id=12560108",
        "revenue": 5414027698.33,
        "revenue_prev": 4336118273.46,
        "profit": 989531165.75,
        "profit_prev": 1052121901.75,
        "cfo": 315419854.45,
        "cfo_prev": -133528099.61
      },
      "latest_ttm_parent_profit": 1836613461.29,
      "H1_profit_yoy": -0.05949000386351855,
      "H1_revenue_yoy": 0.24858856629154702
    },
    "dupont": {
      "parent_net_margin": 0.2214691278258625,
      "asset_turnover": 0.5243690528719048,
      "parent_equity_multiplier": 1.5254183363969485,
      "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.17714920617462493,
      "adjusted_roe": 0.17019112474918224
    },
    "business": {
      "essence": "向租赁商/企业出售高空作业平台，电动化和臂式高端产品提升价值；终端本质仍与资本开支和设备更新周期相关。",
      "moat": "自动化制造、臂式/电动产品研发及全球服务渠道，长期可靠性和全生命周期成本。",
      "countercase": "设备可复制，租赁商景气下行会延缓换新；关税或渠道失效可抹去中国制造成本优势。"
    },
    "management": {
      "assessment": "聚焦高空平台，海外研发/渠道合作有助产品升级；但新建新能源平台项目必须按投产后的回款和回报评价，而非只按产能。",
      "capital_allocation": "2025长期资产购建6.62亿元，CFO13.12亿元；2026H1CFO3.15亿元从上年负1.34亿元修复但仍显著低于归母9.90亿元。加强账龄/客户信用核查。"
    },
    "growth_valuation": {
      "growth": "2025海外主营收入64.32亿元，贸易风险不是边缘变量；2026H1营收54.14亿元大增，利润9.90亿元却回落，须区分汇兑与真实毛利承压，不能无条件加回全部汇兑。",
      "normalization": "以2024—2025扣非约16.38/18.25亿元为参照，正常化15—18.5亿元，给关税/价格与信用损失留空间，不用高利润率峰值。",
      "normalized_profit_cny": [
        1500000000.0,
        1850000000.0
      ],
      "normalization_status": "分析假设，非公司指引；不等于净现金流",
      "normalized_pe_range": [
        14.604864864864865,
        18.012666666666668
      ],
      "reported_ttm_pe_calculated": 14.711315456123469,
      "threshold_pe": 12,
      "conditional_price_cny": 35.548317850401574,
      "share_basis": "行情全股本总市值/同日报价反推每股锚；不用旧EPS或复权价格，已避免伯特利/豪迈转增口径错配。"
    },
    "buy_conditions": {
      "buy_when": "正常化利润保守端15.0亿元下总股权PE≤12倍，条件价约35.55元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
      "verify": "欧美贸易税率和原产地风险、客户账龄/逾期与担保；海外租赁商库存；新增产能利用率；CFO/利润连续恢复到0.8以上。",
      "anchor": "2026-09-30未复权收盘53.36元，总市值270.19亿元；正常化PE14.60—18.01倍。阈值是研究判断，无历史估值分位背书。"
    },
    "risk_death": [
      "关税加码和租赁商同时收缩，价格/销量/回款三杀。",
      "以放宽账期换海外增长，最终坏账穿透净利润。",
      "竞争导致设备残值下降，租赁客户购置意愿进一步恶化。"
    ],
    "worst_case": "不以账面现金直接加回，需先扣经营周转、保证金和信用风险；周期利润跌至10亿元时重估。",
    "four_master_summary": {
      "巴菲特": "见business与dupont：护城河、经济回报与现金可持续性。",
      "芒格": "见management：资本配置、激励、并购与反面论据。",
      "费雪林奇": "见growth_valuation与buy_conditions：增长来源、正常化估值与验证条件。",
      "格雷厄姆烟蒂压力": "见worst_case与risk_death：本批不因高ROE认定净资产具有清算保护。"
    },
    "data_quality": {
      "financial_source_count": 1,
      "independent_double_source_verified": false,
      "status": "primary_source_grounded_with_explicit_valuation_assumptions",
      "quote_source": "Tencent独立行情仅验证价格，不是财报数字独立双源",
      "dupont_basis": "归母净利率(归母利润/合并收入) × 合并收入/平均合并总资产 × 平均合并总资产/平均归母权益；含少数权益结构影响，权益乘数不是纯有息债杠杆。用年初年末均值，不等于公司加权ROE。",
      "fcf_basis": "若有simple_fcf为合并CFO−购建长期资产现金；未扣收购/租赁全部本金、未剔增长capex、含NCI，不冒充归母可分配FCF。",
      "limits": [
        "财务为发行人单源，镜像/同发行人中报不构成独立双源。",
        "正常化盈利、买入倍数和压力情景为分析假设；未构建完整DCF、估值历史分位或收购逐笔IRR。",
        "2026中报后至研究时点全部公告未逐条覆盖，重大后续事项需执行前补查。"
      ]
    }
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json",
    "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json",
    "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
    "quote": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh603338"
  },
  "research_rating": 3,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": 50.1056,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [],
  "reject_reason": "",
  "reject_reason_source": "",
  "tracking_state": "observing",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "正常化利润保守端15.0亿元下总股权PE≤12倍，条件价约35.55元",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "欧美贸易税率和原产地风险、客户账龄/逾期与担保",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "事件",
      "item": "海外租赁商库存",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "新增产能利用率",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "CFO/利润连续恢复到0.8以上。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}