{
  "code": "603344",
  "name": "星德胜",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "行业待核验",
  "quality_tier": "rejected",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": false,
  "quality_source": "2026-10-02-rating-v2；保留原深研评分/判断，修正档位归类",
  "score": 2,
  "verdict": "回避：总市值口径下并非低PB烟蒂，增收不增利与现金流对票据支付的依赖削弱安全边际，不能用题给高E/P和现金利润比支持买入。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.5017269860339388,
    "roe": 0.07977376252873562,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.053121348467885056,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 7.98%，权益乘数 1.50倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 5.31%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.07977376252873562,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.33409999999999995,
      "net_profit_ttm": 166036300.0,
      "equity": 2081339712.9186604,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.053121348467885056
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": null,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.22021067276923076,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.1115025792964824,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.07977376252873562,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.07977376252873562,
  "channels": [],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：回避：总市值口径下并非低PB烟蒂，增收不增利与现金流对票据支付的依赖削弱安全边际，不能用题给高E/P和现金利润比支持买入。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": null,
    "date": null,
    "pe": null,
    "dy": null,
    "market_cap": null,
    "source": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/603344.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "603344",
    "name": "星德胜（星德胜科技（苏州）股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "巴菲特·财务估值",
    "score": "★★☆☆☆（2/5，烟蒂投资适配度）",
    "verdict": "回避：总市值口径下并非低PB烟蒂，增收不增利与现金流对票据支付的依赖削弱安全边际，不能用题给高E/P和现金利润比支持买入。",
    "findings": [
      "核心问题一：低估值是否真实？【事实】主营微特电机及相关产品，应用于清洁电器、个人护理、电动工具等。2025年底总股本194530980股、无限售股份54030980股，流通比例约27.775%；2026半年报确认股本结构未变。若题给PB=0.586、E/P=0.136使用流通市值作分子，则改为总市值后分别约2.11倍、3.78%。按题给流通市值12.206亿元反推总市值约43.95亿元，结合2026年中归母净资产21.787亿元，参考PB约2.02倍；以2025全年减2025上半年加2026上半年计算TTM归母净利润约1.511亿元，参考PE约29.09倍。上述是条件测算，不是当前行情报价。【观点】正面是持续盈利、净资产为正；反面是所谓净资产折价消失，烟蒂筛选依据不成立。来源：2025年报 https://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603344&id=12181121 ；2026半年报 https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603344&id=12567970 （财务与股本数字单源未交叉）。",
      "核心问题二：利润能否转化为可分配现金？【事实】2025年收入25.732亿元，同比增长4.84%，归母净利润1.736亿元，同比下降12.56%；经营现金流2.715亿元。年报明确说明现金流增长主要来自开立银行承兑支付货款、减少现金支付。购建长期资产支出2.061亿元，经营现金流减该支出的简化自由现金流仅约6541万元，且尚未剔除票据支付时点影响、未细分维持性与扩张性资本开支。2026上半年收入增长8.35%，归母净利润6798.64万元、下降24.85%，扣非净利润下降27.71%，经营现金流7091.03万元、下降18.81%；存货较年初增长36.06%。【观点】现金流仍为正是正面因素；反面是现金流强于利润不完全代表终端回款改善，增收不增利及存货上升需要防范利润率和营运资本继续恶化。来源：上述2025年报和2026半年报；半年报收入、利润走势另见新浪资讯汇总 https://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/go.php/vCB_AllNewsStock/symbol/sh603344.phtml （现金流、资本支出和存货数字单源未交叉）。",
      "核心问题三：账面权益可靠性、治理及股东回报能否补足估值风险？【事实】2025年报披露天健出具标准无保留意见；年报及2026半年报的涉嫌违法违规、处罚整改栏目均不适用，未披露非经营性资金占用或违规担保。2026年中控股股东银科实业持股68.87%，持股表显示无质押、标记或冻结。2025年度利润分配方案不分红，2026中期亦不分红；但2025年现金流量表列示分配股利、利润或偿付利息支付约6030万元，因此不能把题给股息率0误述成过去一年从未支付分红。2025年交流串激电机收入下降10.01%、直流有刷电机下降39.05%；无刷电机收入增长20.27%，但毛利率下降2.54个百分点。【观点】没有发现已确认的退市、造假或质押爆仓硬伤，产品向无刷升级也有业务基础；反面是旧产品萎缩、新产品增长未稳定转化为利润，暂缓分红又缺少现金回收催化，不应按净资产折价买入。来源：上述2025年报、2026半年报（单源未交叉）；2025年度不分红为年报披露方案，本次未另核股东会决议。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "未取得题给指标同日价格及完整原始估值字段，所有修正估值均为条件测算，不作为当前精确报价。未完成五年自由现金流、维持性资本开支、票据保证金和全部受限资金的系统复核，不能据此计算可靠所有者收益或清算价值。公司2024年上市，题给10年ROE中位数的样本来源需回查。2026半年报未经审计；未穷尽核验半年报后全部监管、风险警示和质押公告，搜索未命中不能证明不存在风险。"
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/603344.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "尚未判级",
    "quote": null,
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "verdict",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    },
    "quality_classification": {
      "rule": "2026-10-02-rating-v2",
      "previous_tier": "unverified",
      "previous_in_pool": false
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 2,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": false,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": false,
  "reject_reason_tags": [
    "估值口径",
    "现金转换"
  ],
  "reject_reason": "回避：总市值口径下并非低PB烟蒂，增收不增利与现金流对票据支付的依赖削弱安全边际，不能用题给高E/P和现金利润比支持买入。",
  "reject_reason_source": "companies.verdict（原研究判断摘录）",
  "tracking_state": "rejected",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "回避：总市值口径下并非低PB烟蒂，增收不增利与现金流对票据支付的依赖削弱安全边际，不能用题给高E/P和现金利润比支持买入。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}