{
  "code": "603596",
  "name": "伯特利",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "汽车零部件",
  "quality_tier": "bronze",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": true,
  "quality_source": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
  "score": 3,
  "verdict": "成长观察，待价格与扩产兑现：线控制动国产替代有能力，但融资、客户集中、并购与现金转化不够支持高确定性复利评级。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": 0.10899195314544845,
    "turnover": 0.799294394248697,
    "leverage": 2.065549500828545,
    "roe": 0.17994376772592,
    "basis": "FY2025归母桥接（含少数权益影响）",
    "conclusion": "FY2025杜邦10.90%×0.799×2.066=17.99%，扣非16.77%；与法拉/豪迈相比权益乘数明显较大。CFO/归母0.662、简单FCF仅0.82亿元，高ROE没有等比例自由现金；2026H1现金有所修复，不能一季定性。"
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.22357299578059073,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.18016119402985076,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.21690130151843814,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.17461861386138616,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.2007904148783977,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.21042424242424237,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.20263870967741937,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.18016226126814364,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.17461861386138616,
  "channels": [
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "刹车安全召回/产品责任可同时打击所有客户。；客户压价和集中度使规模增却净利率下降。；大量融资扩产/高价并购叠加出海贸易壁垒，回款落后使ROE失真。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": 21.389073634204276,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": "深研条件价；全部人工验证仍须满足",
    "condition": "正常化利润保守端12.0亿元下总股权PE≤16倍，条件价约21.39元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 28.14,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 17.68,
    "dy": 0.0091,
    "market_cap": 25260000000.0,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh603596",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": "正常化利润保守端12.0亿元下总股权PE≤16倍，条件价约21.39元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
    "verify": "豫北交易实际完成及负债/商誉、转股摊薄；第一大客户与关联定价；海外工厂亏损改善；连续年度CFO/归母回到0.8以上且扩产ROIC超过资本成本。",
    "anchor": "2026-09-30未复权收盘28.14元，总市值252.60亿元；正常化PE18.04—21.05倍。阈值是研究判断，无历史估值分位背书。",
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/603596.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "603596",
    "name": "伯特利",
    "score": "3★",
    "verdict": "成长观察，待价格与扩产兑现：线控制动国产替代有能力，但融资、客户集中、并购与现金转化不够支持高确定性复利评级。",
    "roe_quality_note": "FY2025杜邦10.90%×0.799×2.066=17.99%，扣非16.77%；与法拉/豪迈相比权益乘数明显较大。CFO/归母0.662、简单FCF仅0.82亿元，高ROE没有等比例自由现金；2026H1现金有所修复，不能一季定性。",
    "quote": {
      "price": 28.14,
      "time": "20260930161438",
      "market_cap": 25260000000.0,
      "currency": "CNY",
      "source_url": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh603596",
      "source_count": 1,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T03:49:35.097452+00:00"
    },
    "facts_vs_opinion": "financial_facts/quote为来源事实与计算；business/management/growth/risk及估值阈值为研究判断，不是管理层预测或自动买入指令。",
    "roe_discovery": {
      "minimum": 0.1746186138613861,
      "mean": 0.1986587166798086,
      "basis": "2019—2026八月末TTM年度采样，非8个完整财年；面板未剔非经常损益，单源且有幸存者偏差"
    },
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603596&id=12032178",
        "source_count": 1,
        "type": "发行人年报新浪镜像，非独立第二源"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603596&id=12562309",
        "source_count": 1,
        "type": "发行人2026中报新浪镜像"
      }
    ],
    "financial_facts": {
      "revenue": 12014080628.71,
      "revenue_prev": 9936599426.94,
      "profit": 1309438112.97,
      "profit_prev": 1208851302.79,
      "adjusted_profit": 1220473386.88,
      "adjusted_profit_prev": 1113259832.83,
      "assets": 17275680453.09,
      "assets_prev": 12786035768.51,
      "equity": 7997937599.48,
      "equity_prev": 6555921414.57,
      "cfo": 866961398.49,
      "cfo_prev": 1057722827.72,
      "capex": 784843231.44,
      "capex_prev": 731688576.28,
      "source_url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603596&id=12032178",
      "source_count": 1,
      "dupont": {
        "parent_net_margin": 0.10899195314544845,
        "asset_turnover": 0.799294394248697,
        "parent_equity_multiplier": 2.065549500828545,
        "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.17994376772592,
        "adjusted_roe": 0.1677181819202426
      },
      "cfo_to_parent_profit": 0.6620865773668393,
      "simple_fcf": 82118167.04999995,
      "period": "FY2025",
      "currency": "CNY",
      "H1_2026": {
        "source_url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603596&id=12562309",
        "revenue": 6271971694.77,
        "revenue_prev": 5163806310.09,
        "profit": 641482632.31,
        "profit_prev": 522338575.78,
        "cfo": 751623839.23,
        "cfo_prev": 636603896.59
      },
      "latest_ttm_parent_profit": 1428582169.5,
      "H1_profit_yoy": 0.22809737219213422,
      "H1_revenue_yoy": 0.21460243048130256
    },
    "dupont": {
      "parent_net_margin": 0.10899195314544845,
      "asset_turnover": 0.799294394248697,
      "parent_equity_multiplier": 2.065549500828545,
      "roe_average_parent_equity": 0.17994376772592,
      "adjusted_roe": 0.1677181819202426
    },
    "business": {
      "essence": "提供EPB、WCBS制动及转向等安全关键系统，软件/硬件联合验证与整车平台定点形成收入生命周期。",
      "moat": "车规可靠性、量产验证、控制算法与本地研发响应速度，换供应商有验证和安全成本。",
      "countercase": "主机厂控制价格与平台定点，客户自研、博世/大陆和国产同行竞争；定点生命周期收入不是已实现订单。"
    },
    "management": {
      "assessment": "2025发行约28亿元可转债，为产能/海外扩张融资；万达方向机收购后向智能底盘延伸，2026推进豫北转向收购，需核交割、购买价分摊和新增贷款。",
      "capital_allocation": "2025资产增长35.11%而收入+20.91%、利润+8.32%；投入先于回报，募资和并购不是自动复利。机器人/低空基金与海外工厂应单列预算，不把题材收入计入正常利润。"
    },
    "growth_valuation": {
      "growth": "2026H1收入62.72亿元、归母6.41亿元、CFO7.52亿元较同期改善；EPB/WCBS渗透提升与出口是主线，但用量产毛利和回款验证而非定点新闻。",
      "normalization": "以FY2025扣非12.20亿元和H1兑现为锚，假设12—14亿元，保留海外爬坡/融资成本，不加机器人未实现利润。",
      "normalized_profit_cny": [
        1200000000.0,
        1400000000.0
      ],
      "normalization_status": "分析假设，非公司指引；不等于净现金流",
      "normalized_pe_range": [
        18.042857142857144,
        21.05
      ],
      "reported_ttm_pe_calculated": 17.681867056230256,
      "threshold_pe": 16,
      "conditional_price_cny": 21.389073634204276,
      "share_basis": "行情全股本总市值/同日报价反推每股锚；不用旧EPS或复权价格，已避免伯特利/豪迈转增口径错配。"
    },
    "buy_conditions": {
      "buy_when": "正常化利润保守端12.0亿元下总股权PE≤16倍，条件价约21.39元；并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
      "verify": "豫北交易实际完成及负债/商誉、转股摊薄；第一大客户与关联定价；海外工厂亏损改善；连续年度CFO/归母回到0.8以上且扩产ROIC超过资本成本。",
      "anchor": "2026-09-30未复权收盘28.14元，总市值252.60亿元；正常化PE18.04—21.05倍。阈值是研究判断，无历史估值分位背书。"
    },
    "risk_death": [
      "刹车安全召回/产品责任可同时打击所有客户。",
      "客户压价和集中度使规模增却净利率下降。",
      "大量融资扩产/高价并购叠加出海贸易壁垒，回款落后使ROE失真。"
    ],
    "worst_case": "不是烟蒂：商誉/专线设备和应收在客户危机中难回收，低PE须服从订单及现金验证。",
    "four_master_summary": {
      "巴菲特": "见business与dupont：护城河、经济回报与现金可持续性。",
      "芒格": "见management：资本配置、激励、并购与反面论据。",
      "费雪林奇": "见growth_valuation与buy_conditions：增长来源、正常化估值与验证条件。",
      "格雷厄姆烟蒂压力": "见worst_case与risk_death：本批不因高ROE认定净资产具有清算保护。"
    },
    "data_quality": {
      "financial_source_count": 1,
      "independent_double_source_verified": false,
      "status": "primary_source_grounded_with_explicit_valuation_assumptions",
      "quote_source": "Tencent独立行情仅验证价格，不是财报数字独立双源",
      "dupont_basis": "归母净利率(归母利润/合并收入) × 合并收入/平均合并总资产 × 平均合并总资产/平均归母权益；含少数权益结构影响，权益乘数不是纯有息债杠杆。用年初年末均值，不等于公司加权ROE。",
      "fcf_basis": "若有simple_fcf为合并CFO−购建长期资产现金；未扣收购/租赁全部本金、未剔增长capex、含NCI，不冒充归母可分配FCF。",
      "limits": [
        "财务为发行人单源，镜像/同发行人中报不构成独立双源。",
        "正常化盈利、买入倍数和压力情景为分析假设；未构建完整DCF、估值历史分位或收购逐笔IRR。",
        "2026中报后至研究时点全部公告未逐条覆盖，重大后续事项需执行前补查。"
      ]
    }
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json",
    "conditions": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json",
    "quality": "results/2026-10-02-roe-deep-batch3.json；V2映射：4★银/3★铜（疑点保留）",
    "quote": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh603596"
  },
  "research_rating": 3,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": 31.5625,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [],
  "reject_reason": "",
  "reject_reason_source": "",
  "tracking_state": "observing",
  "verification_kind": "",
  "verification_reason": "",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "正常化利润保守端12.0亿元下总股权PE≤16倍，条件价约21.39元",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "并满足现金/业务验证。价格单项达标不自动买入。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.buy_when（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "豫北交易实际完成及负债/商誉、转股摊薄",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "第一大客户与关联定价",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "海外工厂亏损改善",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    },
    {
      "type": "比率",
      "item": "连续年度CFO/归母回到0.8以上且扩产ROIC超过资本成本。",
      "basis": "buy_conditions.verify（原条件，需同时满足人工验证）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}