{
  "code": "603871",
  "name": "嘉友国际",
  "market": "A",
  "industry": "物流",
  "quality_tier": "bench",
  "quality_conflict": false,
  "in_quality_pool": true,
  "quality_source": "quality_pools_V2.json",
  "score": 3,
  "verdict": "买入观察：等待跨周期自由现金流和非洲项目现金回报得到验证，不把半年反弹视作长期复利证明。",
  "dupont": {
    "margin": null,
    "turnover": null,
    "leverage": 1.396063102052213,
    "roe": 0.2047985977212971,
    "margin_turnover_proxy": 0.1466972355477651,
    "method": "panel_residual_v1",
    "three_factors_complete": false,
    "basis": "面板近似口径：ROE与期末权益乘数；营收缺失，不能独立拆净利率/周转率",
    "conclusion": "面板近似口径：ROE 20.48%，权益乘数 1.40倍；净利率×周转率代数残差 14.67%。ROE日期 2026-08-31，负债率报表期 2026-03-31；缺营收，三因子未完整拆分，残差不代表独立测得ROA。",
    "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
    "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31",
    "leverage_avail_date": "2026-04-30",
    "inputs": {
      "roe_ttm": 0.2047985977212971,
      "debt_to_assets": 0.2837,
      "net_profit_ttm": 1207000000.0,
      "equity": 5893595041.322314,
      "reported_roa_ttm": 0.1466972355477651
    },
    "formulas": {
      "leverage": "1 / (1 - debt_to_assets)",
      "margin_turnover_proxy": "roe_ttm / leverage = roe_ttm * (1 - debt_to_assets)"
    },
    "sources": {
      "roe": "fundamentals_monthly.parquet:roe_ttm",
      "leverage": "ths_ttm_panel.parquet:debt（资产负债率，不是金额）"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "本地面板单源，非独立双源核验。",
      "ROE与负债率可能跨报告期；期末合并权益乘数不等于平均归母权益乘数，少数权益/财务公司/金融企业尤其需复核。",
      "净利润与权益不能反推出营收；净利率、资产周转率保持空值，不假设周转率为1。",
      "代数残差由ROE倒推，不能用乘积相等证明杜邦三因子独立成立。"
    ]
  },
  "roe_series": [
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "roe": 0.23261481481481483,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "roe": 0.1842851311953353,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "roe": 0.18250833333333336,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "roe": 0.2154801749271137,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "roe": 0.2564663729809104,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "roe": 0.2874448508180943,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "roe": 0.20225172413793105,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "roe": 0.2047985977212971,
      "basis": "August TTM"
    }
  ],
  "roe_min": 0.18250833333333336,
  "channels": [
    "value",
    "compounder",
    "roe_quality"
  ],
  "proxy_candidate": false,
  "death_risk": "原研究风险摘录：【事实】2025年营收83.77亿元、归母净利润11.41亿元，分别下降4.31%、10.60%；加权ROE为19.36%，低于2024年的23.94%[J1]。",
  "price_lines": {
    "watch": null,
    "good": null,
    "fat": null,
    "intrinsic_value": null,
    "basis": null,
    "condition": null,
    "currency": "CNY",
    "manual_gate": true
  },
  "current": {
    "price": 12.0,
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "pe": 12.52,
    "dy": 0.0333,
    "market_cap": 16416000000.0,
    "source": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh603871",
    "currency": "CNY",
    "source_count": 1
  },
  "buy_conditions": {
    "buy_when": null,
    "verify": null,
    "anchor": null,
    "source": null
  },
  "research_file": "research/603871.html",
  "research_document": {
    "code": "603871",
    "name": "嘉友国际（嘉友国际物流股份有限公司）",
    "guru": "巴菲特·财务估值",
    "business": "主营跨境多式联运综合物流、供应链贸易及国际陆港运营，重点覆盖中蒙、中亚和非洲资源运输市场，并非单纯轻资产货运代理。名称及主业已由2025年年度报告摘要确认。",
    "core_questions": [
      {
        "question": "一、高ROE能否代表稳定、可复制的盈利能力？",
        "analysis": "【事实】2025年营收83.77亿元、归母净利润11.41亿元，分别下降4.31%、10.60%；加权ROE为19.36%，低于2024年的23.94%[J1]。利润与收入经界面报道交叉，ROE采用公告口径，单源未交叉。2026年上半年归母净利润7.31亿元、增长30.39%，但营收39.66亿元、下降2.88%[J3]。【观点】高ROE有真实业务基础，但不能等同于消费品牌式的稳定复利：公司同时经营焦煤贸易和跨境基础设施，商品价格、贸易价差及项目投产节奏均可能影响回报。正面是口岸资产与物流组织能力可形成局部进入壁垒；反面是最近年度下滑、随后半年反弹，已说明利润具有波动。应以跨周期利润估值，不能把恢复增长直接外推为长期增速。"
      },
      {
        "question": "二、账面利润能否成为股东可分配的现金？",
        "analysis": "【事实】2025年经营现金流11.31亿元，归母净利润11.41亿元，按公告数字计算现金转化约0.99倍；现金流经界面报道交叉[J1、J2]。2026年上半年经营现金流5.66亿元，仍低于同期归母利润7.31亿元[J3，单源未交叉]。年报摘要拟定全年现金分红5.47亿元，含中期分红，占归母利润47.96%[J1，单源未交叉]。【观点】全年现金回收与适度分红支持盈利质量，但经营现金流不等于所有者收益。公司还要建设道路、陆港、口岸及配套设施，维持性资本开支、扩张支出和境外资金汇回均需单独扣查。正面是利润并非主要停留在应收账款；反面是未完成资本开支及特许经营资产核验前，不能确认分红和扩张可以长期同时由内部现金覆盖。"
      },
      {
        "question": "三、当前面板估值是否提供足够安全边际？",
        "analysis": "【事实】用户面板PB为2.883、E/P为0.071、股息率为0.032，按给定E/P倒数计算隐含PE约14.08倍；这些是用户截面数据，未核实日期及总市值口径。年报明确供应链贸易以公司自身名义进口销售，非洲业务含持续投资建设的陆港和道路[J1，单源未交叉]。【观点】若高资本回报能够跨周期保持，该估值有观察价值；反面是它并非净资产折价资产，价格已经支付了持续盈利能力溢价。必须为煤价、口岸通行、境外国别风险及建设超支留折扣，不能把海外收费资产等同于本土低风险公用事业。流通市值也不应直接替代企业总股权价值。缺少净债务、正常化自由现金流和项目剩余特许期限，暂不给目标价或声称明显低估。"
      }
    ],
    "score": "★★★☆☆（3/5）",
    "conclusion": "资本回报和全年现金回收较好，但贸易周期与海外基础设施投资使盈利稳定性弱于表面ROE；属于合理估值候选，不是已确认的深度折价。",
    "verdict": "买入观察：等待跨周期自由现金流和非洲项目现金回报得到验证，不把半年反弹视作长期复利证明。",
    "findings": [
      "2025年归母净利润11.41亿元、同比下降10.60%，与用户面板的长期高ROE形成必要反证；公告加权ROE为19.36%，不能与媒体摊薄ROE混用。来源：[J1] http://xinpi.zqrb.cn/pdf/SH/603871/2026/0425/26c5e79f1945ed8bffb43b08d6877536.pdf ；[J2] https://www.jiemian.com/article/14333834.html 。利润交叉一致，ROE单源未交叉。",
      "2025年经营现金流11.31亿元、现金/归母利润约0.99倍，但2026年上半年现金流5.66亿元仍低于归母利润7.31亿元。来源：[J1、J2]；[J3] https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/yyyj/2026-08-25/doc-inipqaan2314084.shtml 。半年现金流单源未交叉。",
      "公司不是纯轻资产物流：主业包含自身名义开展的商品贸易，以及非洲道路和陆港投资；2025年度拟分红总额5.47亿元、支付率47.96%，仍需与资本开支同时评估。来源：[J1]，单源未交叉。"
    ],
    "data_gaps": "已定位2026半年报巨潮原文 https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-26/1225506466.PDF ，但提取超时，半年关键数据采用新浪报道，未以原文完成交叉。未核验五年自由现金流、维持性资本开支、境外资金汇回限制、特许经营剩余年限及净债务。用户面板日期、10年ROE样本及估值分母未核验；不得据此生成实时买入价格。",
    "候补后续复核": [
      {
        "source": "results/2026-10-01-bench-batch3.json",
        "review": {
          "rank_in_bench": 36,
          "code": "603871",
          "name": "嘉友国际",
          "original_verdict_truncated": "买入观察：等待跨周期自由现金流和非洲项目现金",
          "original_verdict_full": "买入观察：等待跨周期自由现金流和非洲项目现金回报得到验证，不把半年反弹视作长期复利证明。",
          "doubt": "跨周期自由现金流与非洲项目可汇回的现金回报是否获得验证。",
          "doubt_origin": {
            "method": "从原结论提炼；batch_results.json结论被截断，回溯2026-09-28原始研究恢复全文",
            "path": "/root/.hermes/cache/delegation/subagent-summary-3-20260928_144549_168271.txt"
          },
          "evidence_result": "本轮消除了原半年报PDF获取缺口，确认当期正现金代理；非洲项目独立现金回报和新增预付款风险仍未量化。未把签约视作兑现，也未把未落地风险当作已发生损失。",
          "evidence": [
            {
              "published_on": "2026-08-26",
              "source_type": "巨潮2026半年报PDF（本次成功下载并解析）",
              "finding": "OCF566,280,374.23元，购建长期资产64,887,474.62元，简单相减501,392,899.61元；未把投资现金净流量或理财购买当全部资本开支，也不将合并现金当作非洲项目汇回现金。",
              "url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-26/1225506466.PDF",
              "source_status": "单源；公司公告/调研与转载不视为独立交叉验证"
            },
            {
              "published_on": "2026-09-09",
              "source_type": "公司投资者调研记录DOCX",
              "finding": "公司说明非洲矿山/民生物资及物流园协同，未披露逐项目实际资本回收期和回流母公司现金。",
              "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603871&id=12591368",
              "source_status": "单源；公司公告/调研与转载不视为独立交叉验证"
            },
            {
              "published_on": "2026-09-25",
              "source_type": "公司布隆迪锂辉矿合作公告",
              "finding": "公司将为设备采购、配套仓库道路等提供预付款支持；协议履行受矿山扩产落地影响，数量金额不确定。独家物流及销售代理权不是已兑现现金收益。",
              "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?stockid=603871&id=12621312",
              "source_status": "单源；公司公告/调研与转载不视为独立交叉验证"
            }
          ],
          "decision": "维持",
          "recommended_rating": "3★观察候补",
          "reason": "合并现金改善不能证明非洲项目已回本且可汇回，新增合作也尚未兑现，维持3★。",
          "missing_data": [
            "非洲各项目累计实付投资、经营净收款、税费及汇回记录",
            "剩余特许期及持续维护/扩张承诺",
            "布隆迪预付款限额、担保/抵押和还款保障",
            "跨周期完整自由现金流"
          ],
          "fact_vs_opinion": "evidence为已取得来源中的事实或注明的管理层表述；decision/reason为研究判断，不是交易指令。",
          "change_vs_previous_research": "未取得足以全部解除原疑点或确认自原3★结论后实质恶化至回避的新硬证据；复查旧半年报不冒充新增事件。",
          "coverage": {
            "announcement_index_url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/go.php/vCB_AllBulletin/stockid/603871.phtml",
            "index_latest_displayed_date": "2026-09-29",
            "scope": "逐家公司定向搜索+新浪公告索引+疑点相关公告/附件，不是全部公告穷尽审计；索引显示日不能单独证明披露有效日。"
          },
          "evidence_local_directory": "/root/value-invest/results/bench-batch3-evidence/"
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  "outside_watch": false,
  "triggers": [],
  "status": "watch",
  "provenance": {
    "research": "data/research/603871.json",
    "conditions": null,
    "quality": "quality_pools_V2.json",
    "quote": "https://qt.gtimg.cn/q=sh603871",
    "dupont": {
      "patch": "scripts/patch_v21_research.py",
      "method": "panel_residual_v1",
      "roe_date": "2026-08-31",
      "leverage_report_date": "2026-03-31"
    },
    "death_risk": {
      "source": "research_document",
      "field": "core_questions[0].analysis",
      "method": "原文风险句摘录，不新增研究观点"
    }
  },
  "research_rating": 3,
  "data_quality": [
    "原始研究和行情保留单源声明；发现通道不等于质量认证",
    "价格到线只启动复核，不代表买入"
  ],
  "distance_pct": null,
  "quote_fresh": true,
  "triggered": false,
  "roe_discovery": true,
  "reject_reason_tags": [],
  "reject_reason": "",
  "reject_reason_source": "",
  "tracking_state": "observing",
  "verification_kind": "price_line",
  "verification_reason": "已深研；数值价格线待核，不等于深研否决",
  "tracking_kind": "",
  "tracking_checklist": [
    {
      "type": "人工",
      "item": "买入观察：等待跨周期自由现金流和非洲项目现金回报得到验证，不把半年反弹视作长期复利证明。",
      "basis": "research_document.verdict（原研究摘录；未新增阈值）"
    }
  ],
  "monthly_review": {
    "month": "2026-10",
    "status": "本期未复核",
    "core_changes": "本期未复核",
    "reviewed_on": null,
    "event_count": null,
    "events": {},
    "sources": [],
    "decision": null,
    "observations": {},
    "source_file": "reports/monthly/2026-10.reviews.json"
  }
}